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2021 Mid-Atlantic Severe Weather - General Discussion


Kmlwx
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Looking at the sounding here on the 3km NAM, that dry layer and the respectable low level lapse rates would seem to signal a damaging wind threat. DCAPE gets up over 900 for a time. Also some low level directional shear, thus a slight chance of a tornado. The most impressive parameter with this threat are the increasing wind speeds with height. The CAPE looks a tad skinny, but decent. My non-expert observations. Also predicting a fail for my yard.

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13 minutes ago, CAPE said:

The FV3, 3k NAM, RGEM and even the ICON are focusing much of the convection in extreme NE MD, N DE and SE PA with what looks to be the track of the MCV. Other storms fire to the south and southwest of that low, but more scattered.

MCS events have a tendency to be progged by short term guidance too far NE of where they occur. Last night was a perfect example of this. The 00z NAM had convection going over the UP of Michigan and Green Bay, yet the initiation and main body of the storm was well to the west.

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4 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

MCS events have a tendency to be progged by short term guidance too far NE of where they occur. Last night was a perfect example of this. The 00z NAM had convection going over the UP of Michigan and Green Bay, yet the initiation and main body of the storm was well to the west.

I’d feel better if any run of any CAM was showing something interesting for the DC area.  Haven’t found one yet.

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52 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

I'm in New Windsor today. I woke up to fog, but it's since burned off and we have nothing but blue overhead. I'm not worried about the low level stuff along I-95 today, it's the mid/high level leftover crapvection that's near Pittsburgh. If that can die off then we're golden.

I'm in Hunt Valley today, its trying to burn off, but still pretty foggy. 

23 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Everyone says that :lol:

Touché 

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Not getting my hopes up. Putting the models aside there’s a certain boots-on-the-ground experience factor. If you look back on the top 10 severe weather days over the past 25 years, you know, the ones you really remember as weenies, I wonder how many of those events occurred on the “super hype” days vs how many events occurred on the typical “chance of severe storm” generic days. And then you add the geographic factor that probably 25-30 % of us win on any given severe day, plus the “when in drought leave it out” mantra. Plus the fog. Plus the crapvection in Pittsburgh.

Not that I won’t think about it this afternoon, but better to be “surprised” if the levels of forecasted severe actually come to fruition. I prefer the “wow it actually happened” feeling better than the “another bust” feeling. Same with winter.

On the other hand, now that I posted this, we will probably get a tornado watch at 2 pm.


.

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17 minutes ago, Stormfly said:

5% TOR almost always winds up with a watch.

Actually seeing warning criteria in your yard, well might as well start looking for that five leaf clover! :P

If storms can wait until after 5pm, that would be great. I hate traveling on 83 during a storm trying to get home. 

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Not sure if it was mentioned, but CAMs did an abysmal job last night and this morning with the MCV over the Great Lakes region, everything developed farther south and west than progged.

Obviously we have the usual limiting factors in this area, but best jet dynamics still appear to be near the Mason-Dixon Line despite the enhanced moving northward. Need to keep a close eye on that line today. 

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4 minutes ago, Winter Wizard said:

Not sure if it was mentioned, but CAMs did an abysmal job last night and this morning with the MCV over the Great Lakes region, everything developed farther south and west than progged.

Obviously we have the usual limiting factors in this area, but best jet dynamics still appear to be near the Mason-Dixon Line despite the enhanced moving northward. Need to keep a close eye on that line today. 

:bike:

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7 minutes ago, Winter Wizard said:

Not sure if it was mentioned, but CAMs did an abysmal job last night and this morning with the MCV over the Great Lakes region, everything developed farther south and west than progged.

Obviously we have the usual limiting factors in this area, but best jet dynamics still appear to be near the Mason-Dixon Line despite the enhanced moving northward. Need to keep a close eye on that line today. 

Really would like to see this cloud deck over PA start breaking up. Each frame it looks more and more like early spring wedge season.

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