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2021 Mid-Atlantic Severe Weather - General Discussion


Kmlwx
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From SPC-

Effective bulk shear of 30-35 kt with straight hodographs, MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg, and steep low-level lapse rates will favor a mix of clusters and splitting cells capable of producing damaging gusts and isolated large hail until the storms shift offshore by this evening.

 

I'm down for that. My yard is probably due for a miss though.

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2 hours ago, yoda said:

Maybe a few isolated severe storms this afternoon?

   Definite competing factors today.     As noted above, the instability, deep layer shear, and low-level lapse rates are really good.    On the downside, low-level westerly flow here (which occurs when the surface low is well to our northeast) tends to dry out the lower levels and limit convergence along the cold front.      The threat is certainly better the further east and northeast one goes, but the overall trend in the CAMs for the local area is positive, especially with the HRRR seeming to come on board this morning.

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URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 385
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1155 AM EDT Wed Jul 21 2021

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
     Connecticut
     District Of Columbia
     Delaware
     Southeast Massachusetts
     Central and Eastern Maryland
     New Jersey
     Southeast New York
     Southeast Pennsylvania
     Rhode Island
     Northeast Virginia
     Coastal Waters

   * Effective this Wednesday morning and evening from 1155 AM until
     800 PM EDT.

   * Primary threats include...
     Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
     Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible

   SUMMARY...Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms will develop this
   afternoon along a weak cold front extending from northern Virginia
   into eastern Massachusetts.  The strongest cells will pose a risk of
   damaging wind gusts and hail.
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3 hours ago, dailylurker said:

I see they expanded the slight risk back west of the bay into my county as well. It's been pretty boring around here lately. I could use some interesting weather. 

Got an alert about the watch for home. Would be our luck to miss storms 

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15 minutes ago, mappy said:

Oh? 

We have solid lapse rates, shear and instability. Even the mid level lapse rates aren't terrible and that's a chronic thing we have going against us in these parts. Don't think it's going to be a lot of aerial coverage, but those who get a storm could get clocked pretty well.

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Jackpot of 'meh' wins again...

Remember a gameshow in the 70s called Joker's Wild?  When you'd play against the devil, if you did not get a devil and got up to $1000 you'd win the jackpot?  I feel like luck being with these systems I'd pull the lever and THREE DEVILS would come up across the board!  LOL

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