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2021 Mid-Atlantic Severe Weather - General Discussion


Kmlwx
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34 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

It's not exactly a major outbreak of storms, but the NAM looks quite a bit more impressive than current radar.

Which NAM are you looking at. The 12z NAM nest was fairly unimpressive other than some scattered storms that looked sub-severe. Earlier run maybe?

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Mesoscale Discussion 1211
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0115 PM CDT Fri Jul 09 2021

   Areas affected...eastern Virginia into eastern Maryland and Delaware

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 091815Z - 092015Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Scattered storms are expected to form over the next few
   hours with locally damaging wind gusts and small hail possible.

   DISCUSSION...Surface convergence continues to increase in relation
   to a developing low pressure trough, with westerly winds across
   western VA and NC. GPS PWAT sensors indicate a relative maximum
   around 1.80" over eastern VA, with continued heating further
   destabilizing the air mass. Shear is weak, but the favorable time of
   day and steepening low-level lapse rates should foster strong
   outflow, with a few severe gusts possible. The increasing westerly
   flow should push the better moisture eastward with time,

   ..Jewell/Bunting.. 07/09/2021

 

 

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Finally some action,  and a near- by severe thunderstorm warning.

C and D Canal area gettng very heavy rains in a interesting West to East elongated radar signature, as in training cells. 

 

  

Flood Advisory
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
650 PM EDT Fri Jul 9 2021

DEC003-NJC015-033-100200-
/O.NEW.KPHI.FA.Y.0061.210709T2250Z-210710T0200Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
New Castle DE-Gloucester NJ-Salem NJ-
650 PM EDT Fri Jul 9 2021

The National Weather Service in Mount Holly has issued a

* Flood Advisory for...
  New Castle County in northern Delaware...
  West Central Gloucester County in southern New Jersey...
  Salem County in southern New Jersey...

* Until 1000 PM EDT.

* At 650 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain due to
  thunderstorms. Minor flooding is ongoing or expected to begin
  shortly across portions of the advised area. Between 1 and 2
  inches of rain can be expected.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
  Wilmington, Newark, Middletown, Pennsville, Carneys Point,
  Elsmere, New Castle, Penns Grove, Salem, Woodstown, Alloway, and
  Quinton.
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7 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

Yeah, been a strange pattern recently where it seems like PA and north has really been cashing in while it's just mostly hot and humid down here with isolated storms.

We've been under the ridge axis, so plenty of moisture and instability streams to our west and north but we get scraps.  Ridge will push out on Saturday.  Tomorrow probably some activity as well.

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52 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

We've been under the ridge axis, so plenty of moisture and instability streams to our west and north but we get scraps.  Ridge will push out on Saturday.  Tomorrow probably some activity as well.

GFS looks pretty wet Saturday and Sunday afternoon. Of course, not ideal being the weekend. :axe:

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