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2021 Mid-Atlantic Severe Weather - General Discussion


Kmlwx
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SPC has adjusted/expanded the slight risk area further south..

OH to Mid Atlantic Region... Overnight convection has resulted in a large canopy of mid/high clouds across portions of eastern OH and western/central PA. This will significantly limit daytime heating and destabilization later today. Therefore, have adjusted the SLGT risk area farther south into parts of OH/WV/MD where stronger heating is expected, and where CAM guidance in is better agreement regarding thunderstorm development. A shortwave trough currently over Lower MI will help to initiate storms across northern OH by mid-afternoon, with storms tracking southeastward through the evening.

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2 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Time to move discussion to the other thread. Maybe a few garden variety storms later as the front drops in. A quarter inch or so of rain would be nice.

On to Tuesday I guess. As it looks now, timing might not be ideal.

I'm actually lowkey watching Monday. Some CAMs are hinting that MLLRs may steepen during the day with moisture from Claudette in the lower levels leading to higher CAPE. At the same time shear looks to strengthen to modest/moderate levels. If storms can form along the surface trough near the mountains on Monday and/or organized storm activity from further west can propagate eastward into the region, the ingredients may be there for a few decent storms.

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