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2021 Mid-Atlantic Severe Weather - General Discussion


Kmlwx
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Just now, Kmlwx said:

You got one foot in on this one? Or are you going for wedges in MoCo?

Yea I got a foot in this one I guess. It's kinda a NW flow event with decent shear. It's been wet recently so we might see more trees down than usual. I honestly could see a sneaky ENH upgrade at midday if things look a bit more certain.

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19 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Yea I got a foot in this one I guess. It's kinda a NW flow event with decent shear. It's been wet recently so we might see more trees down than usual. I honestly could see a sneaky ENH upgrade at midday if things look a bit more certain.

The wet ground is a good point. I'm really not sure what to think about this one - it seems the short range guidance is pretty consistent with having a little tongue of instability (despite the late night timing) match up with the shear. But timing is one of the primary things that likes to kill our chances around here (that and being socked in with clouds). 

I did notice SPC introduced the 2% tor probs with the last outlook update. Not much mention to go with it in the discussion, though. 

Probably as good of a look as we'll see during the doldrum periods of summer. Funny that you mentioned we'd already gotten beyond our severe season and this event kind of sneaks up. 

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*Puts weenie hat on* 

All the rain that fell to the west of the mountains yesterday will help keep dewpoints elevated in those areas when mixing occurs with the strong June sun today. 

*Takes weenie hat off* 

 

But seriously though how much of a factor is that? I'd thing that today's models take this into account?

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51 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

The new 12z run of the NAM nest is perhaps an hour or so faster. If we add in that storms tend to clear the area faster than expected in most cases - that could bode well. Still bad timing - but a touch better. 

        Yeah, things look better.    I'm going to backtrack a bit from my earlier pessimism.     There is a pretty clear trend in the guidance for some sfc-based instability to be present when the storms arrive/develop this evening.      It shows up well in the individual 00z HREF member CAPE plots.    The older runs (labeled -12h) have limited instability over our area, but some of the newer runs (especially NAM nest and ARW) trended higher with sfc-based instability last night.   From what I've seen so far, the trend will continue with today's 12z cycle.

 

Screen_Shot_2021-06-14_at_10_50.13_AM.png

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4 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Latest mesoanalysis shows ~900j/kg of DCAPE. Fairly confident we get under a watch at some point today.

Noticed this as well. Looks decent. 

1 minute ago, high risk said:

        Yeah, things look better.    I'm going to backtrack a bit from my earlier pessimism.     There is a pretty clear trend in the guidance for some sfc-based instability to be present when the storms arrive/develop this evening.      It shows up well in the individual 00z HREF member CAPE plots.    The older runs (labeled -12h) have limited instability over our area, but some of the newer runs (especially NAM nest and ARW) trended higher with sfc-based instability last night.   From what I've seen so far, the trend will continue with today's 12z cycle.imageproxy.php?img=&key=4c6452e0fc83486cimageproxy.php?img=&key=4c6452e0fc83486cimageproxy.php?img=&key=4c6452e0fc83486cimageproxy.php?img=&key=4c6452e0fc83486cimageproxy.php?img=&key=4c6452e0fc83486c

 

 

If we can nudge the timing even another hour or so earlier, I'll feel even better. Could be a fun night for lightning pictures. 

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Cautiously optimistic that someone sees a good storm today. My logic:

  • Strong sun, no mid level crapola that we have to fight.
  • Solid low level lapse rates
  • Mid level lapse rates, while not amazing, aren't crapola to our NW where storms are firing.
  • Decent shear
  • We've got 1,000 j/kg ML CAPE too. That's good to see.
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