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2021 Mid-Atlantic Severe Weather - General Discussion


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6 minutes ago, Scuddz said:

Everything south of I-70 looks to be at least 80 by now.  I don't suspect we'll have much problem with bouyancy.  HRRR has liked that I-70 line for several runs now so maybe a thermal boundary setting up there that we'll see some additional focus along

NAM twins putting a decent UHI track in the Frederick/Carroll county tornado zone.

EDIT: HRRR giving some UHI love to Frederick / Carroll / Howard / Baltimore counties.

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The combination of instability and shear seems to be sufficient for a severe box here this afternoon, with the best focus for the those along and north of I-66 in VA and Rt 50 in MD.   As noted by EJ, there is certainly a possibility of a few isolated supercell structures, as indicated by the UH tracks.

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The image below shows how long many hours it takes for a watch box to verify after it's issued. Note the clear correlation between watch probability in the antecedent MCD and number of watch boxes that verify within 2.5 hours of issuance. FWIW, the meso I posted above is 60%.

IMG_20190813_084510.jpg.70b7644627c12c7adfa395311333250d.jpg

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13 minutes ago, mappy said:

I just need rain before 530. thanks. lol 

 

3 minutes ago, H2O said:

anytime before 4:30 here.  but specifically 4:30-5:15  lol

Feel for you guys. I remember wishing these things, when the sports practices/games magically aligned with severe/wet/icy wx over the years. It was especially nice when I occasionally assistant coached...and *I* got to make the cancellation calls (and make them I did).  :) 

Just finished half the lawn...86 IMBY, and kinda soupy w/ DP of 69. Vacillating between full sun and filtered sun through high clouds. Won't be a bit surprised to hear the wx radio squawk within the next 1-2 hours.

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10 minutes ago, vastateofmind said:

 

Feel for you guys. I remember wishing these things, when the sports practices/games magically aligned with severe/wet/icy wx over the years. It was especially nice when I occasionally assistant coached...and *I* got to make the cancellation calls (and make them I did).  :) 

Just finished half the lawn...86 IMBY, and kinda soupy w/ DP of 69. Vacillating between full sun and filtered sun through high clouds. Won't be a bit surprised to hear the wx radio squawk within the next 1-2 hours.

Swim practice for me so all it takes is distant thunder.  Lifeguards love looking at radar apps and listening for rumbles so they can be lazy.

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7 minutes ago, H2O said:

Swim practice for me so all it takes is distant thunder.  Lifeguards love looking at radar apps and listening for rumbles so they can be lazy.

I have a water job, but when it rains, I have to find ways to teach and entertain younger people. It’s soooooo fun...

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Severe Thunderstorm Watch

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 234
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
245 PM EDT THU JUN 3 2021

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 234 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

VAC003-013-033-043-047-057-059-061-065-079-099-107-109-113-125-
137-139-153-157-177-179-187-193-510-540-600-610-630-683-685-
040100-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0234.210603T1845Z-210604T0100Z/

VA
.    VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ALBEMARLE            ARLINGTON           CAROLINE
CLARKE               CULPEPER            ESSEX
FAIRFAX              FAUQUIER            FLUVANNA
GREENE               KING GEORGE         LOUDOUN
LOUISA               MADISON             NELSON
ORANGE               PAGE                PRINCE WILLIAM
RAPPAHANNOCK         SPOTSYLVANIA        STAFFORD
WARREN               WESTMORELAND


VIRGINIA INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE

ALEXANDRIA           CHARLOTTESVILLE     FAIRFAX
FALLS CHURCH         FREDERICKSBURG      MANASSAS
MANASSAS PARK
$$
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* Primary threats include...
     Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph likely
     A tornado or two possible

   SUMMARY...Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop
   this afternoon initially across southeast Pennsylvania into
   Maryland/Virginia Blue Ridge vicinity. A relatively moist/unstable
   environment along with moderately strong southwesterly deep-layer
   winds will support sustained multicells and potentially some
   supercells. Thunderstorm-related wind damage is the most probable
   risk, but some hail and a low tornado risk will exist as well.
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SW Loudoun Storm looks like it may be rotating a little. Not tight.. but interesting.

The other storm in Northern Loudoun into Maryland is now severe.

 

----------------------

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
314 PM EDT Thu Jun 3 2021

The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  Northwestern Montgomery County in central Maryland...
  South central Frederick County in north central Maryland...
  Northeastern Loudoun County in northern Virginia...

* Until 400 PM EDT.

* At 314 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Point Of
  Rocks, or near Poolesville, moving east at 25 mph.

  HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated.

  IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches
           to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as
           damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by
           downed trees. Localized power outages are possible.
           Unsecured light objects may become projectiles.

* Locations impacted include...
  Germantown, Boyds, Clarksburg, Adamstown, Monrovia, Barnesville,
  Dickerson, Beallsville, Tuscarora, Lucketts and Park Mills.
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6 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Guessing the DC folks are waiting for the line forming west of Charlottesville unless something happens to pop in front of it. Got about 30 minutes of sun here, hoping for the best. If everyone is sharing when they want the lifeguards to blow their whistles... I’d like them to call it around 6:00!

  It could also be that new storms fire on the outflow boundary that is visible on radar moving south away from the current storms.    That's the general idea that the HRRR is showing.

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that warned portion def touched off a massive blossom of precip out ahead of it. was a small little line and now its a multi-county red/orange slow moving deluge. right on the northern edge of it, so hoping it comes north just a bit more

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