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2021 Mid-Atlantic Severe Weather - General Discussion


Kmlwx
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5 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:


Somewhat surprised they’ve got sirens. Can definitely see the rotation on radar, though. Think that’s the same general area that was warned earlier today, no?

Kinda, it was more North over Maryland I think.

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Thursday maybe?  From this morning's AFD:

The positively tilted upper trough to our west will inch further
east on Thursday as a shortwave embedded within that trough ejects
northeastward from the Ohio Valley toward the eastern Great
Lakes/St. Lawrence Valley. With the Bermuda high remaining in place
offshore, moisture will continue to advect into the area on
southerly low-level flow in advance of the approaching upper trough.
The combination of moisture advection and subtle height falls/large
scale ascent downstream of the trough will lead to the development
of showers and thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and evening. With
dewpoints rising into the mid 60s, model guidance suggests that
around 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE will be present along with around 30-
40 knots of 0-6 km shear. This type of parameter space could lead to
some locally strong to severe thunderstorms Thursday afternoon. With
largely unidirectional southwesterly flow from just above the
surface to the tropopause, some training elements may be possible in
any storms that form. This in combination with precipitable water
values climbing to around 1.5-1.8 inches may lead to some isolated
instances of flooding as well.

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Day 3 SLGT (Thursday) from SPC for the region... even mentions a chance for a few tornadoes 

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0224 AM CDT Tue Jun 01 2021

   Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MIDDLE
   ATLANTIC REGION...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Strong to severe storms are possible over a portion of the Middle
   Atlantic Thursday with locally strong to damaging gusts the primary
   threat.

   ...Middle Atlantic region...

   A belt of 40-50 kt mid-level winds will spread above the moistening
   pre-frontal warm sector Thursday in association with an approaching
   positive-tilt upper trough. While areas of clouds and a few showers
   may develop early in the period along the evolving warm conveyor
   belt, pockets of diabatic heating will contribute to 1000-1500 J/kg
   MLCAPE. Storms developing along and ahead of an approaching cold
   front will likely undergo a gradual intensification during the day
   with 35 to 40 kt effective bulk shear supporting a few organized
   structures. Damaging wind appears to be the primary threat, but
   low-level hodographs might become sufficient for a couple of
   tornadoes. Activity should weaken toward mid evening.  

 

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25 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

Day 3 slights often turn to Day 1 mehs around here. 

I hope it does.  My son is graduation ceremony is at 6:00 at the AG center in Westminster in one of the exhibition pavillions.  

Not the best place to be if something rolls through. 

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3 hours ago, Kmlwx said:

Day 3 slights often turn to Day 1 mehs around here. 

   B)      No argument about that, but I have to say that I'm intrigued by Thursday's potential.    Guidance right now shows favorable timing,  a good trigger (lee trough), a respectable upper pattern, and good directional and speed shear in the lower levels.     Instability could be better, as we won't have full heating, and the lapse rates are fair at best (but I've see worse).    I'm going to be cautiously optimistic for now.

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14 minutes ago, high risk said:

   B)      No argument about that, but I have to say that I'm intrigued by Thursday's potential.    Guidance right now shows favorable timing,  a good trigger (lee trough), a respectable upper pattern, and good directional and speed shear in the lower levels.     Instability could be better, as we won't have full heating, and the lapse rates are fair at best (but I've see worse).    I'm going to be cautiously optimistic for now.

The NAM nest has some respectable parameters too it seems. Will be interesting to see trends as we get closer. Would be fun to have a higher end slight or enhanced style event. 

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1 minute ago, Kmlwx said:

Wouldn't be surprising at all. One of the more common ways for us to fail. Morning junk! 

          It's actually going to help us by lowering LCLs and allowing the circulations to more easily reach the ground.    B)

          (But yeah, that is the potential fail mechanism, although it still looks for now like we'll have enough instability to make things interesting)

 

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15 minutes ago, high risk said:

          It's actually going to help us by lowering LCLs and allowing the circulations to more easily reach the ground.    B)

          (But yeah, that is the potential fail mechanism, although it still looks for now like we'll have enough instability to make things interesting)

 

Out at Day 3 I won't say any fat lady has sung yet. I'm just longing for some actual severe tracking. We've had some interesting sneaky days this year so far - but so far not a ton of the big time area-wide "meat and potatoes" type events. By years elapsed only - we are due for a derecho I think. Maybe we can sneak in an ENH or MOD at some point. 

Hopefully we are not stuck "punting" until tropical season. 

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30 minutes ago, high risk said:

          It's actually going to help us by lowering LCLs and allowing the circulations to more easily reach the ground.    B)

          (But yeah, that is the potential fail mechanism, although it still looks for now like we'll have enough instability to make things interesting)

So what you're saying is that my house is gonna get slabbed?

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45 minutes ago, A777 said:

 

OTD 9 years ago...

 

That was a heck of a day. Talk about a DC area special. Little baby moderate just for our area. 

Always hard to believe that event and the derecho were within a calendar month of each other. 

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Speaking of 06/01/2012 I was where these guys were by the WAWA and Jones Junction mere minutes after they recorded this.  It was a FREAKSHOW!

 

Also 06/04/2010 the Fallston area got clobbered by legit severe.  Also missed the action by mere minutes.

 

p.s. those guys use the f-word a LOT so be ready for that. ;)

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