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2021 Mid-Atlantic Severe Weather - General Discussion


Kmlwx
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3 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Don't want to be that person but what happened that day? Did we actually get storms or did it bust?

       That was the day several cells just north of I-70 interacted with the warm front there and produced several (low-end) tornadoes.

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13 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Don't want to be that person but what happened that day? Did we actually get storms or did it bust?

There were tornadic supercells that developed in the WVA panhandle and moved along/near the 1-70 corridor in northern MD. 

Doesn't mean there will be multiple tornadoes in VA tomorrow, of course. Just that conditions look favorable, probably just to our south.

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Meanwhile there is quite the disagreement in surface temps/dewpts locally tomorrow afternoon. Some CAMs w/ temps near 80 and dewpoints well into the 60s(even approaching 70F). 

The 3kmNAM says temps/dewpts in the 50s. :lol:

I'd definitely feel better about severe chances in the Fredericksburg - RIC corridor tomorrow. I was actually a little bit surprised to see the SLGT for tomorrow over us instead of to our south. Just my amateur 2 cents. We'll see what actually transpires over the next 24-36 hours, of course. 

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5 hours ago, George BM said:

Meanwhile there is quite the disagreement in surface temps/dewpts locally tomorrow afternoon. Some CAMs w/ temps near 80 and dewpoints well into the 60s(even approaching 70F). 

The 3kmNAM says temps/dewpts in the 50s. :lol:

I'd definitely feel better about severe chances in the Fredericksburg - RIC corridor tomorrow. I was actually a little bit surprised to see the SLGT for tomorrow over us instead of to our south. Just my amateur 2 cents. We'll see what actually transpires over the next 24-36 hours, of course. 

They heard you!

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1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Maybe we'll get lucky and somehow bust into a surprise mini tornado outbreak. 

Any time we are looking at a warm front - it's always a game of inches. If the warm front blasts through we get warm sectored - but lose the nice wind profiles...but if it stays south we stay socked in. 

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4 hours ago, Kmlwx said:

Any time we are looking at a warm front - it's always a game of inches. If the warm front blasts through we get warm sectored - but lose the nice wind profiles...but if it stays south we stay socked in. 

Ideally we want the warm front somewhere between I-70 and Route 30 in PA.

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         I'm just about entirely out for tomorrow for those of us north of I-66 in VA and Rt 50 in MD.    There isn't any guidance right now that brings sfc-based instability this far north.   In fact, any severe threat is likely to be a good distance south of DC.      Definitely expecting some elevated convection up this way, but we're going to end up on the cool side of the boundary.    Not looking forward to the possibly low to mid 50s Saturday.

     

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9 hours ago, high risk said:

         I'm just about entirely out for tomorrow for those of us north of I-66 in VA and Rt 50 in MD.    There isn't any guidance right now that brings sfc-based instability this far north.   In fact, any severe threat is likely to be a good distance south of DC.      Definitely expecting some elevated convection up this way, but we're going to end up on the cool side of the boundary.    Not looking forward to the possibly low to mid 50s Saturday.

     

The 12z HRRR does get some instability up to about I-66.

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45 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Sun out temp 73 and 63 percent humidity at my location, when will we know if the warm front has made it up to us?

Wind direction is usually a good indicator. Winds look like they are out of the ENE in most of Maryland. Would seem to indicate the warm front isn't there yet. I've had some sun already in the Colesville, MD area. We've seem some cases in the past where even areas just north of the front can get action if something anchors along the front. Today is far from a guarantee on anything for anybody. But I'd definitely want to be south of DC as everyone has been mentioning. Southern MD and the Spotsylvania area might be a good place to be for action. 

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2 hours ago, MN Transplant said:

The 12z HRRR does get some instability up to about I-66.

      Yeah, it does, although it tends to overmix and therefore move the warm front north too quickly.    Will be interesting to see how far north sfc-based instability can develop this afternoon.

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