Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

2021 Mid-Atlantic Severe Weather - General Discussion


Kmlwx
 Share

Recommended Posts

Not bad...actually got a pretty good storm here, two actually...I managed to catch up to one as it passed over around Chesapeake Beach, turned around just in time to watch another near my place in Calvert, rare good luck in timing today...

 

 

  • Like 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites

17 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

Nothing significant - but it does look like the 0z ARW, ARW2 and NMM sweep a narrow line across some areas between 16z and 18z. 

This and a chance of small hail on Friday w/ 500mb temps falling to near -25C w/ moderately steep lapse rates is all we have for the time being.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Mesoanalysis already has some pockets of 500 SBCAPE around. Not expecting anything too severe today. But a stronger cell or two if we can get some heating would be within reason. Mesoanalysis also shows a bit better shear parameters than yesterday. Satellite has some good clearing to the west - still pretty cloudy here in Colesville, MD. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Kmlwx said:

Mesoanalysis already has some pockets of 500 SBCAPE around. Not expecting anything too severe today. But a stronger cell or two if we can get some heating would be within reason. Mesoanalysis also shows a bit better shear parameters than yesterday. Satellite has some good clearing to the west - still pretty cloudy here in Colesville, MD. 

77 here, with several peeks of sun within past 30 minutes, and clear blue skies visible in the west....let's see how we do.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, vastateofmind said:

77 here, with several peeks of sun within past 30 minutes, and clear blue skies visible in the west....let's see how we do.

Lots of sunshine here now. Still think along and east of I-95 is the play here. And not anything too severe. After @George BM - mentioned Friday I took a look - does look promising for some small hail that day. 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

One thing that may kill chances - dews are already falling pretty close-in. Martinsburg, Winchester and Leesburg are all already into the upper 50s. GAI is still at 66 but the drop is probably starting there as well. It's possible that line going through Baltimore is the show today. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 hours ago, Kmlwx said:

Lots of sunshine here now. Still think along and east of I-95 is the play here. And not anything too severe. After @George BM - mentioned Friday I took a look - does look promising for some small hail that day. 

        Yeah, Friday is kinda interesting.    There isn't much CAPE at all in the forecast soundings, but a 500 mb temperature of -25C is certainly worthy of attention.......

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just a very rudimentary analysis - but we are cooked for a while it seems on severe potential (outside of a sneaky surprise or an isolated threat). 

Looking at the CIPS run from overnight, most of the US is devoid of major swaths of severe analog probs through the 120hr mark. Then...the extended range does show some promise - but mainly to our west and south and very late in the run. 

Looking at the GFS - the juicy dewpoints do try to make a run at us but get shunted largely to the south and then we get dry dewpoints again. Excellent look for comfortable weather through the run...not so nice if you're straining at the bit for more storm chances. 

I could see this being a bit of a rubber band style pattern - we go weeks and weeks with not a lot to track - and then something changes and bam we go on a heater for a week or two (or longer). Either that or we just have a very, very quiet later spring/early summer severe season. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

23 hours ago, Kmlwx said:

Just a very rudimentary analysis - but we are cooked for a while it seems on severe potential (outside of a sneaky surprise or an isolated threat). 

Looking at the CIPS run from overnight, most of the US is devoid of major swaths of severe analog probs through the 120hr mark. Then...the extended range does show some promise - but mainly to our west and south and very late in the run. 

Looking at the GFS - the juicy dewpoints do try to make a run at us but get shunted largely to the south and then we get dry dewpoints again. Excellent look for comfortable weather through the run...not so nice if you're straining at the bit for more storm chances. 

I could see this being a bit of a rubber band style pattern - we go weeks and weeks with not a lot to track - and then something changes and bam we go on a heater for a week or two (or longer). Either that or we just have a very, very quiet later spring/early summer severe season. 

I remember how quiet 2018 was for much of the spring. But then we got into an active severe period in mid-May (especially May 12th- 15th). Hopefully we do something like that this year as opposed to last year when we just flipped to weak shear summer. 2012 was also quiet before the end of May that year.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The low dewpoints depicted mostly throughout the run lately on the GFS have been impressive. Other than a short window of 60s dews in the middle of the run (near the 180hr mark) the dewpoints remain low for this time of year. Very non-soupy. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

lots of thunder yesterday afternoon 1pmish. was at a birthday party in New Freedom, PA when a cell formed almost overhead. Constant rumbles. Then another from the south formed near my house and moved northeast, thunder with that one too.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, mappy said:

lots of thunder yesterday afternoon 1pmish. was at a birthday party in New Freedom, PA when a cell formed almost overhead. Constant rumbles. Then another from the south formed near my house and moved northeast, thunder with that one too.

Yeah, it was odd, as there was only like a 20% chance of "scattered showers" forecasted, but skies grew pretty dark to our north around that time, and even here in NoVA I heard a rumble of thunder or two with just a few sprinkles. Radar definitely looked more vigorous up your way and in southern PA.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

29 minutes ago, vastateofmind said:

Yeah, it was odd, as there was only like a 20% chance of "scattered showers" forecasted, but skies grew pretty dark to our north around that time, and even here in NoVA I heard a rumble of thunder or two with just a few sprinkles. Radar definitely looked more vigorous up your way and in southern PA.

I hoped my power washing would have brought the rain.  Nothing but a couple sprinkles

  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...