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2021 Mid-Atlantic Severe Weather - General Discussion


Kmlwx
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15 hours ago, Stormfly said:

Petered out well before the county line.  They usually do or veer south. Nice relaxing shower now, a few rumbles of thunder.  Biggest performers of the night are the Gray Tree Frogs.  They are out in full force.  The hooters (Barred Owls) will be happy! :)

You finally identified a few posts back this specific owl species that's been stalking my backyard, @Stormfly....and then I finally caught one on camera last night just a few minutes after midnight! Video quality is meh (it's a Blink camera), but you can see it fly in at lower left, probably going after a frog or mouse on the patio. I was excited to capture this, as I've only ever seen them as swooping silhouettes in past years!

 

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3 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said:

Seems that way when looking at it closer!

 

It's broad for the time being. Will be interesting to see how that cell/complex evolves as it comes out of the Blue Ridge areas. My personal prediction is that it'll get close to the metro area and gust out into the typical outflow and heavy rain ;)

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Definitely a better event than I was thinking earlier, as the deep layer shear is better than progged earlier.     That said, while I can see the stronger cells acquiring some broad rotation, you can't get strong low-level rotation with this wind profile:

2073398745_ScreenShot2021-05-04at3_06_27PM.thumb.png.346d12558254ef02bfe66ab6ebb23e3b.png

      unless the model is way off with the weak low-level speeds that it's showing.     It also doesn't look very good with the instability, but if lapse rates are better, there is plenty of dry air below cloud base to generate some intense downdrafts.

          

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29 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said:

Looks like the best stuff may go south of my area...but NOVA into DC and over to Annapolis look to potentially get it good between 430-730

I dunno...I’m cautiously optimistic looking at radar.

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2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

I dunno...I’m cautiously optimistic looking at radar.

The HRRR seemed to keep the main show along I-66 and then through DC proper but not a lot north of there. Would like to see just a bit more northerly motion  with the activity. It's more messy looking on radar lately - but wonde rif part of that is the higher terrain

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9 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

The HRRR seemed to keep the main show along I-66 and then through DC proper but not a lot north of there. Would like to see just a bit more northerly motion  with the activity. It's more messy looking on radar lately - but wonde rif part of that is the higher terrain

Northernmost line approaching LWX definitely looking more raggedy than an hour ago, however....the strongest portion does appear to be taking a bead on the area just north of the District, so maybe you guys are indeed in play.

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