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2021 Mid-Atlantic Severe Weather - General Discussion


Kmlwx
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12 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

I agree but it is crazy humid, I do think that we need the rain though.

Yeah, it's gotten a little bit on the dry side here lately.

 

Meanwhile, looking at satellite loops it looks like sunshine should remain ample at least into the early afternoon hours.

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2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

 

So hard to tell if that is a tornado, or just a really low wall cloud. No doubt there was damage from the cell. I think LWX said they'd be out there today to survey and see what they find. 

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1 minute ago, mappy said:

So hard to tell if that is a tornado, or just a really low wall cloud. No doubt there was damage from the cell. I think LWX said they'd be out there today to survey and see what they find. 

Yeah those images are potato quality. I always just wait for the survey. Although - based on the radar presentation I'd assume something along the TOR warned path will be found to have been a tornado. 

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1 minute ago, Kmlwx said:

Yeah those images are potato quality. I always just wait for the survey. Although - based on the radar presentation I'd assume something along the TOR warned path will be found to have been a tornado. 

Agreed. Def think they will find something out in WV, and maybe again east of Frederick. 

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21 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

The NAM nest has come around to showing some activity this PM now. 

    Yeah, trends are definitely good, and the full 12z suite of CAMs is quite encouraging.    That said, despite some decent mid-level flow and inverted-V profiles,  low level winds in the forecast soundings are quite weak.    So, I'm enthusiastic about stronger storms in the area later today, but I think that not going any higher than MRGL right now makes sense.

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1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said:

True, but shear is kinda weak and we're seeing a ton of crap clouds bubbling up so it'll probably offset it. I know, I know, deb.

And of course on the latest mesoanalysis update they've come down a bit ;)

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2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

True, but shear is kinda weak and we're seeing a ton of crap clouds bubbling up so it'll probably offset it. I know, I know, deb.

What sort of storms do you think we will be looking at I personally think that pulse types storms are the most likely with supercells not all too likely due to the low shear. Also would this sort of environment enable microbursts because they are pulse type storms, to be honest I have no idea what sort of environment makes them likely? 

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4 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

What sort of storms do you think we will be looking at I personally think that pulse types storms are the most likely with supercells not all too likely due to the low shear. Also would this sort of environment enable microbursts because they are pulse type storms, to be honest I have no idea what sort of environment makes them likely? 

Generic pulse storms with a few flood or severe warnings for wet microbursts.

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4 minutes ago, George BM said:

Slighted for the 1630z update w/ mention of the remnant MCV currently in extreme SW VA potentially spreading multicellular clusters of storms across the SLGT area. 

Now we countdown to the pity MD and potentially the pity watch. 

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