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2021 Mid-Atlantic Severe Weather - General Discussion


Kmlwx
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LWX morning disco re severe

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Low pressure will track from the Great Lakes into southeastern
Canada and northern New England. The warm associated with this
low will pass through the area this morning and the cold front
associated with the low will be fast on its heels, passing
through during the afternoon and early evening. Showers are
expected to develop quickly early this morning and spread from
southwest to northeast in response to a strengthening low-level
jet along with significant moisture advection and an upper-level
jetmax. A few thunderstorms are possible as well, especially
near the Allegheny Highland early this morning, and then east of
the Blue Ridge Mountains between about 7 am and 11 am. These
storms should be elevated, so the threat for severe weather is
low during this time.

There may be a break in the shower activity for a period behind
the warm front, especially near and east of Interstate 81. A
strengthening southwesterly flow ahead of the potent cold front
along with some breaks of sunshine will likely be enough to
destabilize the atmosphere, allowing any convection that
develops to be rooted within the boundary layer. Therefore,
more showers are expected this afternoon into this evening along
and ahead of a strong cold front that will be moving through.
Shear profiles both low-level and deep layer remain strong, and
forcing along the boundary is strong as well. Therefore, this
elevates the chances for storms to become strong to severe.
There is still some uncertainty as to exactly how much warm air
will make it in ahead of the cold front and also how far north
and west. As of now, the most likely scenario is that a broken
line of convection develops along and ahead of the cold front,
strengthening around the I-81 corridor as it moves into a more
unstable airmass and continuing to progress through the area
from west to east with further strengthening possible as the
airmass is likely to be more unstable the farther east you go.

Given the very strong wind field aloft, damaging winds are the
primary threat, but a backed surface flow may lead to an
isolated tornado threat as well.

The broken line of convection is most likely to pass through the
Allegheny Highlands between 1 and 3 PM, the I-81 corridor to
around the Blue Ridge Mountains between 3 and 5 PM, the metro
areas between 5 and 7 PM, and it should clear southern MD by 9
PM. As always, timing can be tricky with these systems because
the cold pool can dictate whether or not this line moves faster
or slower.

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1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Not really enthused about the severe weather prospects north of I-66 today. Hoping to see the first thunder of the year today.

 

Had a flash and a nice prolonged rumble about 30 mins ago.  Rooting for some clearing later this AM for a boosted second round this PM.  

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Just now, CAPE said:

Warm frontal overrunning about to clear the area. No thunder here.

Lets see if we can get the surface cooking now.

I'm not enthused on Today. It could be a garden variety thunderstorm day. Like I've been saying - still super early for the meat and potatoes stuff. 

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Just now, Kmlwx said:

I'm not enthused on Today. It could be a garden variety thunderstorm day. Like I've been saying - still super early for the meat and potatoes stuff. 

Yeah it looks like maybe some isolated straight line wind damage, and an outside chance of a weak tornado SE. A run of the mill gusty storm with some T&L would be nice.

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3 hours ago, Kmlwx said:

I'm not enthused on Today. It could be a garden variety thunderstorm day. Like I've been saying - still super early for the meat and potatoes stuff. 

Yeah, I'm wondering -- about 63 here now, humid out, still full overcast. Hopefully some of those breaks in the sat pic you just posted make it this way.

Quick aside question -- finally purchased Radarscope on Friday. Toying with upgrading to the annual subscription for Pro Tier 1, if only for that dual screen display for some hyper-local tracking. I'm probably not enough of hobbyist to justify annual cost of Pro Tier 2. Anyone here do the single or double upgrade to PT1/PT2?

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Back in town now, and while this is nowhere as good of a setup as it looked like it might be a couple of days ago, it's not dead.     The instability is of course the big question, but with strong forcing on the front and pretty good shear, there will likely be a line of convection ahead of the front.    (It is clearly getting organized now).     If we get up near 70 over the next few hours,  there is probably some wind damage potential.       The better chances are certainly further south, but I'm not totally writing it off north of town.

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21 minutes ago, high risk said:

Back in town now, and while this is nowhere as good of a setup as it looked like it might be a couple of days ago, it's not dead.     The instability is of course the big question, but with strong forcing on the front and pretty good shear, there will likely be a line of convection ahead of the front.    (It is clearly getting organized now).     If we get up near 70 over the next few hours,  there is probably some wind damage potential.       The better chances are certainly further south, but I'm not totally writing it off north of town.

As with @CAPE, currently 73 here and it's become fairly breezy. We had a few breaks of sun through the overcast over the past 1.5 hours, but temps haven't recovered any higher than low 70s. Some convection seems to be getting its act together to the west of us...

2021-03-28_15-35-09.png.ee65f0eb4f25a636f5a4ed21ae580ff2.png

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12 minutes ago, r3w said:

35mph gusts in the Calvert area. Nice and sunny out for the moment. Might have to plot out a good place close by to watch it if a watch is issued.

This will sound pretty selfish, but I replaced a very old SAME-equipped weather radio this past week with a newer unit, and I'm somewhat hoping we're issued some sort of watch this afternoon, if only to test its performance in a "real-world" situation. It did fine this past Wednesday during the regular weekly NWS test...but I'd like to know how loud we need to keep it for watches/warnings, to ensure it alerts us at night while we're sleeping (if necessary).

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Just now, Kmlwx said:

I find it semi humorous that the strongest part of the line is in the northern parts of the area - farthest away from the ENH risk to the south and east. Rest of the line looks paltry for now.

More sun to the south tho ahead of the line. That might help

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