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February 14-16 Winter Storm Part 2


Hoosier
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3 minutes ago, WeatherMonger said:

Down to flurries here

on cue: WILL LIKELY SEE A LULL IN THE SNOWFALL MID TO LATE MORNING AS THE  
BETTER ISENTROPIC LIFT SHIFTS NORTHEAST. HOWEVER SNOW COVERAGE   
AND INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED TO RAMP UP FROM THE SOUTH THIS   
AFTERNOON AS THE LARGER SCALE DYNAMICS SHIFT OVERHEAD,

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Glass from  STL, really interesting disco:

Light snow with pockets of moderate snow cover the majority of
the CWA early this morning. This snow is occurring in response to
a broad region of mid level frontogenetic forcing and weak
isentropic upglide, with a little added help from a weak vort max
moving across MO at this time. Light snow wavering in intensity is
expected to persist through mid-morning and could briefly end in
some areas. The ongoing winter storm will really get going after
around 15z with the greatest overall intensity centered on this
afternoon. Guidance is all in good agreement showing a classical
evolution per conceptual models as the upper trof currently over
the southern Plains ejects northeastward and becomes negatively
tilted, leading to a deepening surface low tracking from the
north- central GOM through the TN Valley. Strong large scale
forcing associated with the upper trof, stout mid-level
frontogenetic forcing associated with a cyclonically turning
branch of the warm conveyor belt, and coupled ULJs will lead to
robust ascent across southeast and east central MO into west
central IL. This strong ascent within a deep dendritic growth zone
will result in high snowfall rates and heavy snow during the
aforementioned time frame. The HREF, HRRR, and RAP all are showing
snowfall rates at times of 1+ in/hr. I`m in new territory
estimating the SLRs as never in my 30+ years forecasting have I
dealt with a major storm with this cold of an airmass. I am using
20:1 or greater and they increase with time. This results in
additional snowfall from 600 am today through midnight of 5-9
inches within the winter storm warning area, the highest amounts
along an axis from near Fredericktown to Salem IL. This corridor
is good agreement with well established techniques from
climatologies by Goree & Younkin, Browne & Younkin, and Gosselin
using the track of the 850 mb low center. The model consensus of
this 850 mb low track is from central AR skirting the bootheel to
just north of Louisville. Gusty winds with the tightening pressure
gradient and the light fluffy nature of the snow will bring
concerns for blowing and drifting. To top this off we remain in
the throes of bitterly cold air and dangerous wind chills. Travel
is not recommended. If you become stranded it could result in a
life-threatening situation. Outside of the warning area, a solid
2-5 inch snowfall looks in order. The current winter storm warning
and advisory look on target. The storm system should completely
exit and area by 06-09z with bitterly cold air and dangerous wind
chills continuing into Tuesday morning. A few record lows may be
possible Tuesday morning and the record low maxes today will again
be shattered. The wind chill warning and advisory in effect until
noon Tuesday looks good as well.

Tuesday is still looking like a down day with weak surface high
pressure dominating. Very cold temperatures will continue. There
could be some flurries around in the morning due to lingering
stratus.

Glass

 

 

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2 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

Escalatedquickly.gif 

Earthcam now just white

 

From where I'm at a bit out West (and a bit higher up in elevation than the O'Hare and downtown area) I can see the lake effect clouds clearly (while the sun shines here). Hope you guys in the city get the big daddy expected. I'll watch from the cheap seats out West and hope a favorable wind drops an inch or two of added fluff!

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5 minutes ago, Dalfy said:

Glass from  STL, really interesting disco:

Light snow with pockets of moderate snow cover the majority of
the CWA early this morning. This snow is occurring in response to
a broad region of mid level frontogenetic forcing and weak
isentropic upglide, with a little added help from a weak vort max
moving across MO at this time. Light snow wavering in intensity is
expected to persist through mid-morning and could briefly end in
some areas. The ongoing winter storm will really get going after
around 15z with the greatest overall intensity centered on this
afternoon. Guidance is all in good agreement showing a classical
evolution per conceptual models as the upper trof currently over
the southern Plains ejects northeastward and becomes negatively
tilted, leading to a deepening surface low tracking from the
north- central GOM through the TN Valley. Strong large scale
forcing associated with the upper trof, stout mid-level
frontogenetic forcing associated with a cyclonically turning
branch of the warm conveyor belt, and coupled ULJs will lead to
robust ascent across southeast and east central MO into west
central IL. This strong ascent within a deep dendritic growth zone
will result in high snowfall rates and heavy snow during the
aforementioned time frame. The HREF, HRRR, and RAP all are showing
snowfall rates at times of 1+ in/hr. I`m in new territory
estimating the SLRs as never in my 30+ years forecasting have I
dealt with a major storm with this cold of an airmass. I am using
20:1 or greater and they increase with time. This results in
additional snowfall from 600 am today through midnight of 5-9
inches within the winter storm warning area, the highest amounts
along an axis from near Fredericktown to Salem IL. This corridor
is good agreement with well established techniques from
climatologies by Goree & Younkin, Browne & Younkin, and Gosselin
using the track of the 850 mb low center. The model consensus of
this 850 mb low track is from central AR skirting the bootheel to
just north of Louisville. Gusty winds with the tightening pressure
gradient and the light fluffy nature of the snow will bring
concerns for blowing and drifting. To top this off we remain in
the throes of bitterly cold air and dangerous wind chills. Travel
is not recommended. If you become stranded it could result in a
life-threatening situation. Outside of the warning area, a solid
2-5 inch snowfall looks in order. The current winter storm warning
and advisory look on target. The storm system should completely
exit and area by 06-09z with bitterly cold air and dangerous wind
chills continuing into Tuesday morning. A few record lows may be
possible Tuesday morning and the record low maxes today will again
be shattered. The wind chill warning and advisory in effect until
noon Tuesday looks good as well.

Tuesday is still looking like a down day with weak surface high
pressure dominating. Very cold temperatures will continue. There
could be some flurries around in the morning due to lingering
stratus.

Glass

 

 

Lmao, that is Sebenste worthy right there.  Best AFD I've seen in years.

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9 minutes ago, Snownado said:

I wonder what model TWC uses. They are showing 5-8" for Indy, with the heaviest snow confined to Northern Kentucky and Ohio. 8-12" for Louisville and Cincinnati.

I'm questioning if 8-12" will occur in and around Cincy with the increasing possibility of sleet.

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