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February 14-16 Winter Storm Part 2


Hoosier
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4 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

First flakes flying here.  RAP has upped us to over 0.20" of precip now, and the HRRR and NAMs have bumped us into the high teens.  Should hopefully be able to fluff 3-4" out of that, which is a HUGE win compared to how this looked a few days ago.

Cyclone will never be defeated. 

  • Haha 2
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Latest from ILN...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
339 PM EST Mon Feb 15 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Significant winter storm to continue to impact the region
overnight into early Tuesday as surface low pressure tracks
into the Upper Ohio Valley. Surface high pressure will settle
over the region bringing dry weather and cold temperatures
Tuesday into Wednesday. Another system with a similar trajectory
will create another round of winter weather for Wednesday night
and Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Major winter storm to continue to impact the area tonight
into early Tuesday. This storm will likely cause a range of
impacts from very heavy snow up to a foot across portions of
East Central Indiana and West Central Ohio to up to a half inch
of ice over the Scioto River Valley/Southeast Ohio and portions
of Northeast KY.

Model solution consensus toward more amplified mid level trof.
This leads to further west and deeper surface low. This allows
more warm air aloft over the very cold surface temperatures.

Precipitation beginning to re-develop and fill in from the
southwest as favorable lift re-develops. This pcpn initially is
falling as freezing rain/sleet along the I-71 corridor.

8H Frontogenesis intensifies this evening  with a dual upper
level jet band providing upper level divergence. Expect snowfall
rates this evening to be 1 to 1.5 inches per hour in heavy snow
over the northwest portion of ILN/s FA. Confidence in heavy snow
over the northwest is high. With more warm air into the I-71
corridor this region will be in the transition zone of pcpn
types. Sleet and freezing rain will diminish snow totals in this
transition zone -- with 5 to 8 inches expected overnight.

Over the lower Scioto River Valley and northeast KY the
predominate precipitation type is freezing rain. Major ice
accumulation up to a half inch is forecast overnight. This
amount of ice will likely lead to power outages and tree limbs
down.

With sfc low tracking thru the Upper Ohio Valley overnight
expect the pressure gradient to increase tonight -- especially
over West Central Ohio. North-northeast winds gusting up to 35
mph will result in blowing and drifting snow overnight.

Have continued winter storm warnings across the entire area.
Cold temperatures to continue with lows from near 10 northwest
to near 20 southeast. Cold wind chills in the single digits
thru the daylight hours.

Large surface to build into the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley Tuesday
night. Very cold temperatures with lows from the single digits
below zero northwest to the single digits above zero southeast.
Wind chill look to be single digits below zero.
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But spring and svr wx season is coming...

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL  
442 PM EST MON FEB 15 2021  
  
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A  
  
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
  SOUTHWESTERN DOUGHERTY COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA...  
  NORTHWESTERN BAKER COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA...  
  EASTERN CALHOUN COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA...  
  EAST CENTRAL EARLY COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA...  
  
* UNTIL 515 PM EST.  
      
* AT 442 PM EST, A CONFIRMED LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO  
  WAS LOCATED 7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ARLINGTON, OR 12 MILES NORTH OF  
  COLQUITT, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH.  
  
  THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!  
  
  HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.  
  
  SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO.  
  
  IMPACT...YOU ARE IN A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. FLYING DEBRIS   
           MAY BE DEADLY TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE   
           HOMES WILL BE DESTROYED. CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE TO HOMES,   
           BUSINESSES, AND VEHICLES IS LIKELY AND COMPLETE   
           DESTRUCTION IS POSSIBLE.  
  
* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...  
  MORGAN AND LEARY AROUND 455 PM EST.  
  
OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE  
COMMISSARY HILL, IVEYS MILL, MILFORD, CRESTVIEW, BERMUDA,  
DOUGLASVILLE, HOLT, PATMOS AND DAMASCUS.  
  

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Just now, miamarsden8 said:

I'm concerned about that dry slot in western Kentucky. I think that's going to nuke snow totals around here. I think I'm boned at this point if that dry slot doesn't fill in...

 

Crap.

I'm gonna end up with no snow before that dry slot arrives. Getting absolutely pelted with sleet though.

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