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February 18th ?19th?


Typhoon Tip
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11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Reggie looks pretty good. Consolidated the low with the follow up s/w. 

Yeah best run yet imho for the midlevels...I actually don’t like the thump look on this system....but I like the midlevel potential in round 2. Don’t get me wrong, I hope the thump comes back a bit stronger, but the best upper air forcing is clearly well to the west so it’s not surprising the thump dies quickly as it tries to outrun the shortwave. 

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17 minutes ago, dryslot said:

George still going 15-20"?

Yep I absolutely am. I don’t buy the se trend at all due to the se ridge and the strength of the La Niña. As is even if we only got .50-.75 in liquid like many models are saying that would pile up fast due to the the cold upper levels of the atmosphere increasing the snow ratios. Dynamics will not be a problem with a massive amount of jet energy ramming well inland reminiscent of the Superbowl Sunday storm. In that storm my area got approximately .5 liquid equivalent and a foot of snow, meaning the models weren’t even wrong with the precip, the snow output busted because the ratios were more like 20-25:1 rather than 10:1. I expect the models to correct back NW, not a lot, but just enough to get heavy snows back into Worcester and even western mass. 16-20 jackpot isn’t a huge stretch considering when accounting for ratios we would probably be getting around 12-15 anyways if that nam run came to verify. I love where we are right now for the Friday storm, I am much more confident than I was a few days out when the gfs was snowing a snowstorm but the other models were showing snow to mix. In this pattern, the risk is rain like we got today not a miss to the south. 

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah best run yet imho for the midlevels...I actually don’t like the thump look on this system....but I like the midlevel potential in round 2. Don’t get me wrong, I hope the thump comes back a bit stronger, but the best upper air forcing is clearly well to the west so it’s not surprising the thump dies quickly as it tries to outrun the shortwave. 

Explained well, makes sense. What do you use to figure out forcing... 500-850 vorticity?

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32 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Reggie looks pretty good. Consolidated the low with the follow up s/w. 

I was thinking that needs to happen 

it appears the NAM is front soaked with that isentropic snow wall it’s carrying on with but its gobbling up dynamics and escaping seaward with it in its total handling ... leaving less available for Q-V forcing cyclogen blah blah 

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10 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Explained well, makes sense. What do you use to figure out forcing... 500-850 vorticity?

500mb height/vorticity map is a good crude one....but if we want to get a little more weenie-ish I’ll look at 700/850 levels for signs of warm fronts. 

But typically the H5 level is good for looking where the best upper level support is. There’s a disconnect in this system...the WAA burst is running way ahead of the upper level stuff, and that can be risky for driving the baroclinic zone too far seaward, but it seems like it hangs back enough on a lot of these runs to allow the upper air to reinvigorate the system before it slides east. This is the part I’m most enthusiastic about trending better. Down where you are, maybe the thump can be good, but it’s sort of shearing out as it goes into SNE. Maybe that changes on future runs....ideally we’d get both. 

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I’m not sure where my feelings set as I crash here.

My taste for this thing soured a bit during the day ... Euros tough to beat inside of D4. I think it’s gotta tick pretty aggressively in this immediately ensuing run. If not it’ll be in an uncharacteristic short lead bust or proven superior. 

but as is yup ... the mid level magic has had an upshot look to it    300 mb jet !!

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1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I’m not sure where my feelings set as I crash here.

My taste for this thing soured a bit during the day ... Euros tough to beat inside of D4. I think it’s gotta tick pretty aggressively in this immediately ensuing run. If not it’ll be in an uncharacteristic short lead bust or proven superior. 

but as is yup ... the mid level magic has had an upshot look to it    300 mb jet !!

Euro was just fabulous on this last storm....

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