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Back to Back Major Synoptic Snowstorms!


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2 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

That had nothing to do with it lol

All those weenie maps were when the storm was cold lol

Once the models starting push the warmth north Kuchera was less than 10-1 at times..

The track changes Kuchera changes lol

Not to mention we didn't get the amount of precip most guidance had..

My final ratio was 5.9:1.  I never saw any Cucaracha maps with ratios that low.  

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Just now, wolfie09 said:

Yeah but how many of those models had you mixing? 

Kuchera maps will work in Lake effect and maybe in pure mid level def/fronto well nw of a surface low. Elsewhere theyre just shit. Regardless, some weenie will post them again for the next one only to have their soul crushed come verification. 

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2 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

Kuchera maps will work in Lake effect and maybe in pure mid level def/fronto well nw of a surface low. Elsewhere theyre just shit. Regardless, some weenie will post them again for the next one only to have their soul crushed come verification. 

with temps in the high teens/ low 20s for this storm you think they would work out ok, but the atmosphere temps were a different story. They were well above freezing way up into the snow growth zone. 

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5 hours ago, wolfie09 said:

Eyeballing a good 4"-5" otg.. Have managed to stay away from mixing so far but we are hardly seeing any precip lol..We should see the return of some wrap around moisture later this afternoon..

Same. As soon as I went to bed, I heard the pinging. Woke up at 3ish and didn't hear anything. Looked outside and didn't look like it was doing much at all. Definitely had some freezing drizzle and the car windows have a little layer of ice.

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That had nothing to do with it lol
All those weenie maps were when the storm was cold lol
Once the models started pushing the warmth north Kuchera was less than 10-1 at times..
The track changes Kuchera changes lol
Not to mention we didn't get the amount of precip most guidance had..
Well they suck anyway

Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

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Just now, BuffaloWeather said:

I thought kuchera would have made sense with temps in the high teens for this storm. A humbling experience. That warm tongue moved farther NW which increased the temperature aloft to above freezing. Even KBUF in their discussion was shocked the mixing line made it that far north. 

Idk about there but here the temps were 24-26 degrees the entire event. We never got even close to as cold as was forecast. 

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Just now, lakeeffectkid383 said:

Idk about there but here the temps were 24-26 degrees the entire event. We never got even close to as cold as was forecast. 

Still way below freezing. Ratios should not have been 1:6-1:8 unless we got the warm air aloft causing mixing. Toledo got over a foot, the storm went 150 miles further NW then modeled a day before.  

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1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said:

with temps in the high teens/ low 20s for this storm you think they would work out ok, but the atmosphere temps were a different story. They were well above freezing way up into the snow growth zone. 

Kuchera algorithm does not know where the rh or the omega or the snow production is in the sounding. That's why they often fail. In mixing scenarios, even the 10:1 maps that people post often include sleet. 

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4 hours ago, SyracuseStorm said:

Well- is the ICON the preferred model of choice now?  I am shocked to hear the totals and the current conditions.  Lake effect will save us this week IMO because I am throwing out all models.  Will start doing my own weather charting and going to enlist the Native American’s in Onondaga to teach me how they predicted weather for the past 100’s of years.  If the pull out the Farmers Almanac, I am literally going to start crying.

Lol...we actually didn't do "too" bad here in Lysander compared to other places that busted BADLY. I mean we only got half of what was predicted...but I think I'm becoming acclimated to this being the norm. :P 

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11 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said:

We got 4 inches of sleet snow here. I’m melting down a core now to see the SWE. Snow on the ground is now a super thick and dense 12 inches. I don’t think this last 4 inches will compact one bit. 

Very true, the snowpack will be more resilient after this Portland Cement deposition.  Which isn't a bad thing.  We all got taken for a ride on this storm, even the pros.

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Just now, OSUmetstud said:

Kuchera algorithm does not know where the rh or the omega or the snow production is in the sounding. That's why they often fail. In mixing scenarios, even the 10:1 maps that people post often include sleet. 

This answers the question, thank you! I thought pivotal factored in mixing, I knew tidbits doesn't. 

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Just now, BuffaloWeather said:

Still way below freezing. Ratios should not have been 1:6-1:8 unless we got the warm air aloft causing mixing.  

I should have taken a core sample before we mixed because I garuntee the snow needles and sugar grains that were falling was also probably damn near close to 7:1. Just so dense and heavy it was insane. 

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with temps in the high teens/ low 20s for this storm you think they would work out ok, but the atmosphere temps were a different story. They were well above freezing way up into the snow growth zone. 

No they were not I actually posted a few soundings and that was not the case at all? The snow growth region flies within negative 12c and -17 c so that's pretty much impossible.

 

Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

 

 

 

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8 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

Kuchera maps will work in Lake effect and maybe in pure mid level def/fronto well nw of a surface low. Elsewhere theyre just shit. Regardless, some weenie will post them again for the next one only to have their soul crushed come verification. 

Well to be fair we aren't forecasters, this is a hobby/fun for us..If people want to get butt hurt that's their own fault.. I'm not the one begging for european WB Kuchera maps everyday lol.. Which by the way is 10 times worse then PW..

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8 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

Kuchera algorithm does not know where the rh or the omega or the snow production is in the sounding. That's why they often fail. In mixing scenarios, even the 10:1 maps that people post often include sleet. 

A day or so before the storm, one of our forum regulars, @CNY-LES FREAK posted a model sounding, i forget which one, and it showed a mismatch between Omega and the DGZ...which gave me pause but even then it wasn't showing the warmth up above at all. But...it was accurate in that dendrite size/type was more "needly" and sub-optimal. Which made me think the Cucaracha's were going to bust.

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