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Mesoscale Discussion 0098
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0706 PM CST Mon Feb 15 2021

   Areas affected...Western into northern New York

   Concerning...Heavy snow 

   Valid 160106Z - 160630Z

   SUMMARY...Heavy snow is expected to develop in the vicinity of the Canadian border in western and northern New York this evening, most likely by 9-10 PM EST. Snowfall rates of 1+ inch an hour are possible.

   DISCUSSION...A potent shortwave trough is currently moving northeastward out of eastern Kentucky and southern Ohio per water vapor imagery. As this feature continues into the Northeast this evening, a surface cyclone will deepen in Pennsylvania and New England. 850-700 hPa frontogenetical lift along the Canadian border aided by approaching mid-level ascent will promote 1+ inch per hour snowfall rates this evening. An area of heavier precipitation in northeastern Ohio will likely enter western New York by 9-10 PM EST.
 A stronger warm nose (nearly +4 C) observed on the 00Z PBZ sounding has kept precipitation more mixed to the south, but the observed 00Z BUF sounding shows a profile fully supportive of snow. Warm advection in the low to mid-levels should remain weak enough thaat precipitation remains as snow. Peak snowfall rates appear likely in the 11 PM to 3 AM EST period when mid-level ascent in the dendritic growth layer will be maximized.
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ICON totally nailed this storm. Caught onto the NW shifts first. Followed by the old GFS. EURO (which has sucked this winter) caught on late. UKIE and Canadian never saw it. 
I never saw it. NWS never saw it. Not that I’m comparing myself to them. 
just a huge bust. 3”. 1/7th of my original (and ridiculous) Rochester jackpot #. Less than half of BUFS 10% low end. 

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Just now, rochesterdave said:

ICON totally nailed this storm. Caught onto the NW shifts first. Followed by the old GFS. EURO (which has sucked this winter) caught on late. UKIE and Canadian never saw it. 
I never saw it. NWS never saw it. Not that I’m comparing myself to them. 
just a huge bust. 3”. 1/7th of my original (and ridiculous) Rochester jackpot #. Less than half of BUFS 10% low end. 

You are not alone my friend.  This was a case where we witnessed models weaknesses....

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1 minute ago, LakeEffectKing said:

You are not alone my friend.  This was a case where we witnessed models weaknesses....

Yeah I'd be real curious to understand what happened. It wasn't as if just one model was off...and pre storm...as @OSUmetstud mentioned, one could make a case that this thing would have been shredded or even pushed SE.  Yet, the exact  opposite happened. Wondering if the initialization / input data was off somehow. Seems unlikely though.

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3 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

For you pack guys sleet takes forever to melt. :lol:

Sure does! I know I've told the story of my experience with 6 inches of sleet in Lancaster, PA. Stuff was a glacier that survived weeks of 40s and 50. Plus...it builds to make HUGE piles that look like you've had a foot of snow. haha

I would still prefer a deep snowpack...but a preserved snowpack is also a good thing.

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