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Back to Back Major Synoptic Snowstorms!


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24 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

Coming down heavily in Pittsford. Visibility down to 1/8-1/4. Good flake structure. The ceiling lowered, the gray/yellow fog descended, bathing everything in that erie, surreal glow. Even the cars are quiet; their headlights illuminating a ragged cone in snow. Perfect

Love the description! Snowing like that here now as well.

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5 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

I don’t know. I’m feeling pretty ok about P-Type. It expands and contracts but I don’t see it racing north. Maybe I’m delusional. 

I agree with you. In the Syracuse area we might mix for a while but the mix line is not racing north. I don’t understand all the negativity on this board but that has become the norm lately. It’s been snowing pretty good here for the last 45 minutes. 

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2 minutes ago, CNY_WX said:

I agree with you. In the Syracuse area we might mix for a while but the mix line is not racing north. I don’t understand all the negativity on this board but that has become the norm lately. It’s been snowing pretty good here for the last 45 minutes. 

Flake size is sub optimal but we'll see how this plays out. Maybe if we get some decent lift in the SGZ we might get better accumulation.  No idea if this is likely though as I haven't investigated soundings yet. And even then, they are model soundings, which are sh!t anyway. GIGO.

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10 minutes ago, MAIDEsNow.2 said:

Evening started with promise - 2" down with decent rates / flake size, then mixing started about an hour ago. Not a whole lot of expectation for the remainder of the night. My P&C now down to 3-5" overnight (not a chance) from 6-10" earlier. Of course up along the lakeshore will get hammered and over perform I am certain (which never happened by the way during the 23 years I lived up there).

First 14 winters living here in the "snowbelt" in Edinboro, averaged 158.8" snow each winter topping out with 224.3" in 08-09.

Welp, the last three, including this one as of now:

94.0" in 18-19

104.5" 19-20

66.5" to date 20-21

It simply does not snow in south central Erie County PA anymore. Every event underperforms greatly. So, another craptastic winter with another sold F grade coming up. Looking forward to an up & in miss to the NW or a down & away miss to the SE on Thursday.

Cabin Land not faring much better relative to the annual seasonal average of 180 - 200" mark out by Peak / Findley Lake area. Do have a decent snowpack of about 16" as of this evening. However, not adding much tonight I bet. Radar looks anemic as of this post and webcams for the Peak & Wilderness lodge show nada. Must be a mix now as well or just pixie dust falling.

Thanks for entertaining my cathartic rant.

I am assuming your area does best on a NW or WNW flow like here? So you must be suffering the same fate the Syracuse area has had...except you have fared better than us these past 2 winters. N and W and we get this crap...or S and E and we sublimate.

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6 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

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If this pans out...How T F are these models so wrong, even a day out? I hesitate to even look at model soundings as they're so grossly wrong even a day out.  It's just another layer of sh!t.  The old timer meteorologists hated this over reliance on models (modelology) versus understating the synoptic setup.  And they were right.

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2 minutes ago, Syrmax said:

If this pans out...How T F are these models so wrong, even a day out? I hesitate to even look at model soundings as they're so grossly wrong even a day out.  It's just another layer of sh!t.  The old timer meteorologists hated this over reliance on models (modelology) versus understating the synoptic setup.  And they were right.

Yeah they've been terrible but I doubt anyone would've figured a cut like this with that high. Sad

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2 minutes ago, Syrmax said:

If this pans out...How T F are these models so wrong, even a day out? I hesitate to even look at model soundings as they're so grossly wrong even a day out.  It's just another layer of sh!t.  The old timer meteorologists hated this over reliance on models (modelology) versus understating the synoptic setup.  

100% agree. It’s one thing for us to model hug, it’s quite another to see professional Mets do it...

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5 minutes ago, Syrmax said:

If this pans out...How T F are these models so wrong, even a day out? I hesitate to even look at model soundings as they're so grossly wrong even a day out.  It's just another layer of sh!t.  The old timer meteorologists hated this over reliance on models (modelology) versus understating the synoptic setup.  And they were right.

The old timers didn't know what was going to happen the next day. I'm sure they would have know the storm was going to come 200 miles north in the last 36 hours too....

 

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1 minute ago, OSUmetstud said:

The old timers didn't know what was going to happen the next day. I'm sure they would have know the storm was going to come 200 miles north in the last 36 hours too....

 

Sometimes I wish it was still like that. Just take weather as it came and knew nothing of the future. Can you imagine Nov 2014 hitting without us knowing it was coming. :lol:

This is how I viewed weather as a kid. I didn't look at models, just walked outside and saw it snowing and went out and enjoyed it.

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1 minute ago, Thinksnow18 said:

100% agree. It’s one thing for us to model hug, it’s quite another to see professional Mets do it...

I read a few papers on this years ago (early 00s) on this very subject.  Experienced meteorologists were just starting to see the profession start over-relying in shiny model output and their graphics as opposed to developing knowledge of synoptics... a lot of which can be experience based.  And it's easier to CYA by blaming a model versus your professional judgment.  Us weenies of course, minimally trained in the fundamentals, would be expected to fall into these traps.  We might be learning a bit this year though.  Its via the errors and suprises that we learn oftentimes. The school of hard knocks so to speak. Any moron can rip n read a model output graphic...

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6 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

The old timers didn't know what was going to happen the next day. I'm sure they would have know the storm was going to come 200 miles north in the last 36 hours too....

 

I'll bet many would have.  And I-m talking Mets that practiced in the 60s-90s mainly.  It was interesting reading back before your time but you might have enjoyed it.

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Just now, Syrmax said:

I read a few papers on this years ago (early 00s) on this very subject.  Experienced meteorologists were just starting to see the profession start over-relying in shiny model output and their graphics as opposed to developing knowledge of synoptics... a lot of which can be experience based.  And it's easier to CYA by blaming a model versus your professional judgment.  Us weenies of course, minimally trained in the fundamentals, would be expected to fall into these traps.  We might be learning a bit this year though.  Its via the errors and suprises that we learn oftentimes. The school of hard knocks so to speak. Any moron can rip n read a model output graphic...

So true. As we become more heavily dependent on technology in general you can see certain aspects of common sense and decision making suffer a bit.

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1 minute ago, Syrmax said:

I read a few papers on this years ago (early 00s) on this very subject.  Experienced meteorologists were just starting to see the profession start over-relying in shiny model output and their graphics as opposed to developing knowledge of synoptics... a lot of which can be experience based.  And it's easier to CYA by blaming a model versus your professional judgment.  Us weenies of course, minimally trained in the fundamentals, would be expected to fall into these traps.  We might be learning a bit this year though.  Its via the errors and suprises that we learn oftentimes. The school of hard knocks so to speak. Any moron can rip n read a model output graphic...

See my professional judgement a few days ago suggested that this low would be put through the shredder and squeeze east west between the pv to the north and the ridge to the se resulting in a nam/emcwf like look. This was wrong but I don't believe I was model hugging. I sided with that idea instead of the idea of convection pumping up heights (which is a common model error, too). 

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Just now, OSUmetstud said:

 

See my professional judgement a few days ago suggested that this low would be put through the shredder and squeeze east west between the pv to the north and the ridge to the se resulting in a nam/emcwf like look. This was wrong but I don't believe I was model hugging. I sided with that idea instead of the idea of convection pumping up heights (which is a common model error, too). 

I would have bought that argument, esp considering the strength and position of the arctic high to the NW.  I dunno, the chaos of the real world systems makes it interesting....

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