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Feb 18-19 long duration manageable snow and ice event

wdrag

By wdrag,
in New York City Metro

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MGorse
MGorse

I am still there. Getting closer to 20 years now. 

Will - Rutgers
Will - Rutgers

not gonna lie boys, i live for the snow thump. yes yes we are all super enthusiasts who enjoy 2 inch rainstorms, 24 inch snowstorms, and probably a few of you are legally insane and enjoy those d

wdrag
wdrag

554A: Topic headlines were adjusted from the original of ate last week to the snowier wintry solution. A burst of moderate to briefly heavy snow Thursday, begins lightly between midnight and 6AM  Thur

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Rjay

Rjay

Posted
Posted
On 2/17/2021 at 10:30 PM, George001 said:

I am the New England weenie who is forecasting 12-15 with isolated 16-20 totals for all of Mass and up into central NH/VT/Southeast Maine. With what the models are showing today I don’t blame you for calling me a wishcaster but just saying it’s too early to say that 16-20 isn’t happening. Based on the low being farther west and stronger than modeled 16-20 isn’t out of the question in Central Mass to the Berkshires, and into the Hudson Valley. I was actually going to change my forecast and take em down but when I looked at the radar I decided not to do so. At least wait until the storm is over before clowning on my forecast, if it does bust and the jackpot is 6-8 then my forecast deserves to be clowned, but it’s too early to call it a bust. Hell I’ll even join you guys in clowning my own forecast if it busts that bad.

How'd this forecast go?

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George001

George001

Posted
Posted

welp, I busted. My forecast was awful, there were a couple of red flags, such as the Euro and Navy being too far south with the low. I was banking on ratios to save us, while that idea of us getting good ratios was right (many areas received 20:1 ratios), there wasn’t enough QPF to get us anywhere near a foot. I’m probably going to end up around 5-6 inches when all is said and done. It was foolish of me to ignore the navy and euro, and to only side with the guidance that gave my area the most snow. Out west especially some areas got around 1/4 of what I forecast. 
 

unfortunately, the polar vortex looks like it’s headed to the North Pole on the models so it looks like winter is coming to an end. Can’t complain though, this winter was great compared to the last 2 winters, which were as terrible as my forecasts.

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CPcantmeasuresnow

CPcantmeasuresnow

Posted
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4.4 inches in Central Park as of 7:00 PM tonight which should be close to their final total for the storm.

25.6 inches for February now which breaks into the top ten for February at number 8. This is well deserved after last years February became only the fifth in over 150 years of records to record only a trace of snow for the entire month.

38.2 inches for the season or 8.2 inches above their full seasonal normal.

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CPcantmeasuresnow

CPcantmeasuresnow

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, George001 said:

welp, I busted. My forecast was awful, there were a couple of red flags, such as the Euro and Navy being too far south with the low. I was banking on ratios to save us, while that idea of us getting good ratios was right (many areas received 20:1 ratios), there wasn’t enough QPF to get us anywhere near a foot. I’m probably going to end up around 5-6 inches when all is said and done. It was foolish of me to ignore the navy and euro, and to only side with the guidance that gave my area the most snow. Out west especially some areas got around 1/4 of what I forecast. 
 

unfortunately, the polar vortex looks like it’s headed to the North Pole on the models so it looks like winter is coming to an end. Can’t complain though, this winter was great compared to the last 2 winters, which were as terrible as my forecasts.

And you shall remain George001 and not King George as some were ready to coronate you if you were right. Alas I was one of them, hoping you would wear the royal robes tonight.

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George001

George001

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Posted
2 hours ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

And you shall remain George001 and not King George as some were ready to coronate you if you were right. Alas I was one of them, hoping you would wear the royal robes tonight.

There’s always next year, way too early to make a forecast but the long range models are hinting at the possibility of another La Niña, possibly even rivaling the strength of the 2010-2011 La Niña. if that verifies I’ll have lots of chances to become crowned King George. 

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