Feb 18-19 long duration manageable snow and ice event

[SleetStormNJ]

There's model disagreement on storm evolution, but virtually all present snowy scenario on order of 4-8 inches with more possible in most capacities for metro area.  That's the key takeaway to me - ingredients are there and there's going to be some smoothing right up to this evening as the storm takes shape over Southeast through lower OH Valley.

[jm1220]

1 minute ago, EpicHECS said:

Still looking for the next Cat5 NESIS. Been a while. 

We probably need a moderate Nino and a gulf Miller A crawler like Jan 2016 again. You have the added tropical juice from the Nino and cold air/blocking to the north. We lucked out here this winter-it’s been very good N of Philly, I think a little above average in Philly and lousy near DC. And I haven’t seen a significant all snow event event, every bigger event mixed at some point but after a ton fell already. 

[NJwx85]

On 2/16/2021 at 11:02 AM, NJwx85 said:

4-8" for most, up to 12" locally.

It should come in relatively heavy on Thursday during the day but the high is retreating and warm air will be moving in aloft so I would bet on a changeover South of I-84. Then it looks like we could get some back end snow on Friday but that looks to be very light.

 

[HVSnowLover]

5 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

We probably need a moderate Nino and a gulf Miller A crawler like Jan 2016 again. You have the added tropical juice from the Nino and cold air/blocking to the north. We lucked out here this winter-it’s been very good N of Philly, I think a little above average in Philly and lousy near DC. And I haven’t seen a significant all snow event event, every bigger event mixed at some point but after a ton fell already. 

Everything this winter has been Miller B's which explains why we are doing better than Philly and way better than DC. Agree for an I95 snowstorm you need a strong Miller A coming out of the gulf with lots of cold air in place. 

[NJwx85]

4-6" Thursday morning into early evening, then a bit of a lull and then another 2-4" overnight Thursday into early Friday. Should be most people to the 6-10" range. Certainly nothing to complain about. 

And then we finally break out of this horrendous pattern (Yes I am sick of this crap already) and we look forward to 50's next weekend as we close out the month. Spring is a month away.

[NJwx85]

2 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

Everything this winter has been Miller B's which explains why we are doing better than Philly and way better than DC. Agree for an I95 snowstorm you need a strong Miller A coming out of the gulf with lots of cold air in place. 

Miller A's are feast or famon. It's great if you end up under the death band and horrible if you're 10 miles East.

[HVSnowLover]

1 minute ago, NJwx85 said:

4-6" Thursday morning into early evening, then a bit of a lull and then another 2-4" overnight Thursday into early Friday. Should be most people to the 6-10" range. Certainly nothing to complain about. 

And then we finally break out of this horrendous pattern (Yes I am sick of this crap already) and we look forward to 50's next weekend as we close out the month. Spring is a month away.

It's going to snow again on Monday especially north of the city lol but probably little to no accumulation

[NJwx85]

Just now, HVSnowLover said:

It's going to snow again on Monday especially north of the city lol but probably little to no accumulation

After a Winter like this, who cares?

[jm1220]

7 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

Everything this winter has been Miller B's which explains why we are doing better than Philly and way better than DC. Agree for an I95 snowstorm you need a strong Miller A coming out of the gulf with lots of cold air in place. 

Yep and that’s why I felt bad for the DC crowd that inevitably got shafted for the 2/1 storm. They bit on those models like the RGEM that gave Baltimore 36”. Some down there did alright but it’s very rare that a Miller B produces SW of Philly. 

[weatherpruf]

20 minutes ago, EpicHECS said:

Still looking for the next Cat5 NESIS. Been a while. 

They used to happen once a decade or so....

[weatherpruf]

15 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Miller A's are feast or famon. It's great if you end up under the death band and horrible if you're 10 miles East.

Was boxing Day storm a Miller A/ Just west of the coast totals were much less

[SleetStormNJ]

2 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Yep and that’s why I felt bad for the DC crowd that inevitably got shafted for the 2/1 storm. They bit on those models like the RGEM that gave Baltimore 36”. Some down there did alright but it’s very rare that a Miller B produces SW of Philly. 

Yup.  Those are very much anomalous there and usually would occur in tremendous blocking environments that force tracks to slide underneath/bowling ball fashion and we get fringed.  Happens, but not too often.

[NJwx85]

Just now, weatherpruf said:

Was boxing Day storm a Miller A/ Just west of the coast totals were much less

Yes, another recent example was January 2015. 

[NJwx85]

10 minutes ago, EpicHECS said:

'96 and '93's cat 5's were more like Cat 5+'s. Jan 2016 is rated *much* lower overall but still within Cat 5 range. Which goes to show how ridiculous the mid 90's were compared to anything we've seen since, excluding 2002-2003. 02-03 was a true beast of a winter, too. But that is a full 18 years ago now. 

I've watched this over the years and it leads me to believe that we're terribly overdue for something remarkable one of these winters soon. 

96 was all about that high. The actual surface storm was nothing special. You had a very nice 522DM ULL close off over the TN Valley and spawn a surface low that crawled up the coast. I don't believe it deepened anymore than the low 990's. Many, many hours of overrunning followed by the crawling coastal and that's how you get 30" plus over thousands of square miles.

[weatherpruf]

7 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Yes, another recent example was January 2015. 

We have been burned worse by Miller B's though; pretty sure the infamous March 2001, now almost 20 years ago, phased too late for us....

[NJwx85]

3 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

We have been burned worse by Miller B's though; pretty sure the infamous March 2001, now almost 20 years ago, phased too late for us....

January 2015 was worse.

[Brian5671]

32 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

4-6" Thursday morning into early evening, then a bit of a lull and then another 2-4" overnight Thursday into early Friday. Should be most people to the 6-10" range. Certainly nothing to complain about. 

And then we finally break out of this horrendous pattern (Yes I am sick of this crap already) and we look forward to 50's next weekend as we close out the month. Spring is a month away.

yeah I'll always root for snow but if it turned 50 and sunny for a month after this storm I'd be fine with it.  Even my kids are tired of the snowcover

[Brian5671]

12z Euro looks south with the first batch-not much north of NYC maybe a couple inches

[L.I.Pete]

11 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

January 2015 was worse.

Agree. 24-36" forecast and I think we got 14". Such a disappointment LOL.

[NJwx85]

Just now, L.I.Pete said:

Agree. 24-36" forecast and I think we got 14". Such a disappointment LOL.

24-36" here and not a single flake.

So yeah, ten times worse.

[HeadInTheClouds]

Euro QPF is pathetic. .2 to .6 area wide. 

[Brian5671]

2 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

Euro QPF is pathetic. .2 to .6 area wide. 

yeah not much of an event north of NYC.   Maybe some light snows into Friday

[Brian5671]

1 minute ago, Brett said:

It has my area only getting 4 inches now it looks like the GFS 16

GFS 16 might be onto something. Let's see what the NAM does at 18z

[Northof78]

Sounds like EURO would be 5-9" if that cold/ratios even with 0.4" - 0.6" QPF....

[Brian5671]

Just now, Northof78 said:

Sounds like EURO would be 5-9" if that cold/ratios even with 0.4" - 0.6" QPF....

it's 3-5 north of NYC, 5-8 south

[gmendevils8204]

11 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

24-36" here and not a single flake.

So yeah, ten times worse.

That might have been more of a letdown than March 2001...and that’s saying something. Didn’t the massive precip shield just stall out 50 miles east of the city?

[winterwx21]

The thump of snow thursday on the Euro is heaviest just south of NYC. The 5 to 6 inches goes across central NJ. Euro does give NYC 3 to 4 inches from the thursday thump, on the northern edge of the heavier snow. Euro does still get NYC to 6 inches though, with ligher accumulating snows going through friday. So for NYC on the Euro, 3 to 4 inches from the thump and then a couple inches from the prolonged lighter snow that goes through friday. So still a very nice 6 inch storm for NYC on the Euro, but the jackpot 8 inch amounts are central NJ. Monmouth Couty could do very well with this.

[Brian5671]

7 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

The thump of snow thursday on the Euro is heaviest just south of NYC. The 5 to 6 inches goes across central NJ. Euro does give NYC 3 to 4 inches from the thursday thump, on the northern edge of the heavier snow. Euro does still get NYC to 6 inches though, with ligher accumulating snows going through friday. So for NYC on the Euro, 3 to 4 inches from the thump and then a couple inches from the prolonged lighter snow that goes through friday. So still a very nice 6 inch storm for NYC on the Euro, but the jackpot 8 inch amounts are central NJ. Monmouth Couty could do very well with this.

the Friday snows are quite light with temps near 32-I don't see that adding up to much in urban areas at this time of year....

[winterwx21]

4 minutes ago, Brett said:

The maps are not showing those amounts 

12z Euro not using ratios (just going standard 10:1) is a 4 to 8 inch snowfall for the tri-state. Heaviest amounts middle of the area (central NJ jackpot), with lighter amounts well north and well south. About 6 for NYC. With ratios, maybe we go slightly higher than these amounts.

[EastonSN+]

Already at seasonal average just want 2 to get me to above average.

Only 6 below average snowfall seasons this century!