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Feb 18-19 long duration manageable snow and ice event


wdrag
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9 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Comical differences on the models this close in. NAM essentially is all front end snow to sleet and most of the GFS snow is from a coastal storm. 

Yes this is becoming a nowcasting event, NAM and GFS are showing entirely different setups (I would probably slightly lean NAM at this range although Euro looked more GFS like)

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18 minutes ago, Brett said:

It has to be very unusual that these models are disagreeing like this less than a day before a storm

Model disagreement is nothing new, it's been better this winter for the most part this close to an event. The differences between the GFS and NAM for both tomorrow and Friday are laughable right now. 

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GFS v16 and CMC seem to be going toward the sheared mess idea that they had last night. I'm not buying either that the WAA snow push/thump would whiff south of us. I can't think of the last time that's happened. The "safe" guess for NYC right now would probably be 5-7" from this. But crazy differences between models this close in. 

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1 minute ago, Northof78 said:

Hate to say it, but this is one of the more obvious outcome storms seen in a while 6-9" seems very high confidence for most of metro regardless of model almost 

Yea I remember all the freaking out before the Sunday storm a few weeks ago with the models and their qpf and the immediate metro area all got the totals upton predicted if not more. Its hard to think a potentially long duration event with cold air in place won't get us to 6-9 inches one way or another.  It's also hard to believe an overrunning setup like this won't get decent snow at least up to NYC.    

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1 minute ago, EpicHECS said:

Anyone think these 10"+ amounts in the Hudson Valley come to fruition?

I wouldn’t worry unless you’re up by Albany maybe (being shut out, maybe not 10”). These snow events always seem to sneak their way north of what’s expected and you have the better ratios generally. I don’t see anything really shutting you out. There’s a good 700mb fetch of moisture that should push this north a good ways. 

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1 minute ago, EpicHECS said:

6" spread out isn't going to make a big difference. Nearly double that would be a slightly different story. 

It depends what happens with the overrunning. I think the coastal would be too far east to have major impact in the HV even if it happens.  Unfortunately usually the coast has to at least ping for you guys to get the really good snows.    

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