Feb 18-19 long duration manageable snow and ice event

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, Rjay said:

awesome 6" at one house and 7" at the other house lol

 

[LibertyBell]

Just now, Nibor said:

It's going to mix. Just accept it as an eventuality.

yeah but it doesn't matter since it'll be a big snowstorm for us regardless.

 

[sferic]

1 hour ago, crossbowftw3 said:

good to lock in a new snowpack as the pattern will go into remission for the rest of the month

short month !

[weatherpruf]

2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

right it doesn't really matter if it's all snow or not, NYC will probably still get to 40".

People stress out too much on everything that falls being snow, you dont need that to have a big snowstorm.

 

Was the record for Feb set in 2010 at 37? i seem to remember that....

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, weatherpruf said:

Was the record for Feb set in 2010 at 37? i seem to remember that....

thats right and thats despite getting missed by the big two footer at the beginning of the month that hit Toms River and south

[HeadInTheClouds]

I would love to see CPk get to 30" for the month because winter was over in early January according to some. 

[hudsonvalley21]

9 minutes ago, Rjay said:

OKX also bumped up their high end map.

 

 

[LibertyBell]

Just now, hudsonvalley21 said:

OKX also bumped up their high end map.

 

 

whats the high end amount for the other map (around Allentown and Mt Pocono)

 

[hudsonvalley21]

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

whats the high end amount for the other map (around Allentown and Mt Pocono)

 

 

[LibertyBell]

Thanks!  So basically 6-10 for one and 7-15 for the other, nice!

 

[sussexcountyobs]

I'm just sitting back and waiting for the dumb posts about sun angle.

[donsutherland1]

15 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

Was the record for Feb set in 2010 at 37? i seem to remember that....

36.9”.

[HeadInTheClouds]

Even up north they are expecting decent snows. 

[jm1220]

700mb frontogenesis at 48hr on the NAM for 18z Thu. This is exactly what the NYC/coastal areas would need to get a quick 2"/hr thump on Thu afternoon to get 6-8" even if they eventually mix. That would be one crazy snow band. The models now are essentially saying we get this very heavy snow batch for several hours then a lull where the warm air can come in. 

Central Park needs 6.2" I believe to get to 40" on the season-decent chance of this right now. 

[sferic]

12 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Thanks!  So basically 6-10 for one and 7-15 for the other, nice!

 

Which second storm and model are you referencing?

[White Gorilla]

32 minutes ago, sferic said:

Which second storm and model are you referencing?

I assume he was joking, using the high end map and forecast map and pretend they are 2 separate storms.  

[LibertyBell]

17 minutes ago, sferic said:

Which second storm and model are you referencing?

 

3 minutes ago, White Gorilla said:

I assume he was joking, using the high end map and forecast map and pretend they are 2 separate storms.  

no  I was talking about the ranges at my two homes lol, one is on Long Island the other is in the Poconos

[LibertyBell]

21 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

700mb frontogenesis at 48hr on the NAM for 18z Thu. This is exactly what the NYC/coastal areas would need to get a quick 2"/hr thump on Thu afternoon to get 6-8" even if they eventually mix. That would be one crazy snow band. The models now are essentially saying we get this very heavy snow batch for several hours then a lull where the warm air can come in. 

Central Park needs 6.2" I believe to get to 40" on the season-decent chance of this right now. 

Does this sound similar to Dec 2020 to you?  Earlier with the heavy snows, which is nice (I like to have them during the day, that makes it very photogenic!

 

[gravitylover]

7 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Does this sound similar to Dec 2020 to you?  Earlier with the heavy snows, which is nice (I like to have them during the day, that makes it very photogenic!

 

Nope heavy snow at night when it's cold so it's fluffy and accumulates better due to ratios and you get more. If you want it photogenic just go outside and play in it, who cares what time it is. Don't go gettin' all old guy I gotta stay in at night on us now   

 

39 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said:

I'm just sitting back and waiting for the dumb posts about sun angle.

It made all the difference today. My driveway is 100% ice free. I'll take it. Actually when I was out I noticed that a lot of S-SW faces are melted off so yeah, it's a thing now.

[bluewave]

34 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

700mb frontogenesis at 48hr on the NAM for 18z Thu. This is exactly what the NYC/coastal areas would need to get a quick 2"/hr thump on Thu afternoon to get 6-8" even if they eventually mix. That would be one crazy snow band. The models now are essentially saying we get this very heavy snow batch for several hours then a lull where the warm air can come in. 

Central Park needs 6.2" I believe to get to 40" on the season-decent chance of this right now. 

 

A 40” season used to be a big deal before 2003. Now it’s just another above average season. This would make 10 years reaching 40” since 2003. 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Ending Date	Total Snowfall Oct 1 to Apr 30	Missing Count
2021-04-30	33.8	74
2020-04-30	4.8	1
2019-04-30	20.5	0
2018-04-30	40.9	0
2017-04-30	30.2	0
2016-04-30	32.8	0
2015-04-30	50.3	0
2014-04-30	57.4	0
2013-04-30	26.1	0
2012-04-30	7.4	0
2011-04-30	61.9	0
2010-04-30	51.4	0
2009-04-30	27.6	0
2008-04-30	11.9	0
2007-04-30	12.4	0
2006-04-30	40.0	0
2005-04-30	41.0	0
2004-04-30	42.6	0
2003-04-30	49.3	0

[TARCweather]

10 minutes ago, bluewave said:

A 40” season used to be a big deal before 2003. Now it’s just another above average season. This would make 10 years reaching 40” since 2003. 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Ending Date	Total Snowfall Oct 1 to Apr 30	Missing Count
2021-04-30	33.8	74
2020-04-30	4.8	1
2019-04-30	20.5	0
2018-04-30	40.9	0
2017-04-30	30.2	0
2016-04-30	32.8	0
2015-04-30	50.3	0
2014-04-30	57.4	0
2013-04-30	26.1	0
2012-04-30	7.4	0
2011-04-30	61.9	0
2010-04-30	51.4	0
2009-04-30	27.6	0
2008-04-30	11.9	0
2007-04-30	12.4	0
2006-04-30	40.0	0
2005-04-30	41.0	0
2004-04-30	42.6	0
2003-04-30	49.3	0

Do you have a similar total for Upton? I’m curious where we are at for their location for 2020-2021 so far this season. Thanks for any efforts. 

[coastalplainsnowman]

17 minutes ago, bluewave said:

A 40” season used to be a big deal before 2003. Now it’s just another above average season. This would make 10 years reaching 40” since 2003. 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Ending Date	Total Snowfall Oct 1 to Apr 30	Missing Count
2021-04-30	33.8	74
2020-04-30	4.8	1
2019-04-30	20.5	0
2018-04-30	40.9	0
2017-04-30	30.2	0
2016-04-30	32.8	0
2015-04-30	50.3	0
2014-04-30	57.4	0
2013-04-30	26.1	0
2012-04-30	7.4	0
2011-04-30	61.9	0
2010-04-30	51.4	0
2009-04-30	27.6	0
2008-04-30	11.9	0
2007-04-30	12.4	0
2006-04-30	40.0	0
2005-04-30	41.0	0
2004-04-30	42.6	0
2003-04-30	49.3	0

20 years from now if you ask 100 people "Which of the above years had snow on May 9th", how many would correctly guess 2020.

[sussexcountyobs]

20 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

Nope heavy snow at night when it's cold so it's fluffy and accumulates better due to ratios and you get more. If you want it photogenic just go outside and play in it, who cares what time it is. Don't go gettin' all old guy I gotta stay in at night on us now   

 

It made all the difference today. My driveway is 100% ice free. I'll take it. Actually when I was out I noticed that a lot of S-SW faces are melted off so yeah, it's a thing now.

I knew it was coming. Lol! Couldn't have anything to do with the temperature? A couple days ago, the sun was out. Nothing melted? Sun angle didn't change much in a few days.

 

[bluewave]

24 minutes ago, TARCweather said:

Do you have a similar total for Upton? I’m curious where we are at for their location for 2020-2021 so far this season. Thanks for any efforts. 

Upton has had 11 years reach 40”+ since 2003 and 9 years reach 50”+.
 

2002	2003	0	2	11.5	5.8	31.8	5.5	5.5	62.1
2003	2004	0	0	25	22	2.2	11	0	60.2
2004	2005	0	0.5	13	29	20	16	0	78.5
2005	2006	0	1.5	7	4	14	4	0	30.5
2006	2007	0	0	Trace	0.5	3.5	5.5	0	9.5
2007	2008	0	Trace	3	0.5	7	1	0	11.5
2008	2009	0	Trace	10.9	12.1	5.2	14.8	0	43
2009	2010	0	0	26.3	12.7	28.4	0.4	0	67.8
2010	2011	0	0	19.8	35.7	4.7	1.3	0	61.5
2011	2012	0	0	0	5.5	0	0	0	5.5
2012	2013	0	1.1	1.4	4.7	35.8	8.8	0	51.8
2013	2014	0	0.2	5.4	24.8	23.9	3.2	0	57.5
2014	2015	0	0	0.3	22.8	15.2	23.9	0	62.2
2015	2016	0	0	Trace	18.8	14.3	2.7	0.1	35.9
2016	2017	0	0	4.1	14.3	15.8	7.9	0	42.1
2017	2018	0	0	7.4	21.2	1.3	21	4.3	55.2
2018	2019	0	4.6	Trace	1	3.5	6	0	15.1
2019	2020	0	2.19	3.8	2.7	0	0	0	8.69

 

[CIK62]

I believe with today's cluster of runs, NYC deserves to be in the 6"-12" category.             NAM  18Z still  holding up in the double  digits  along  with the GFS.

 

 

[weatherpruf]

Just now, CIK62 said:

I believe with today's cluster of runs, NYC deserves to be in the 6"-12" category.             NAM  18Z still  holding up in the double  digits  along  with the GFS.

Coming from you, that's a bold statement...Bullish on this threat?

[the_other_guy]

2 hours ago, sussexcountyobs said:

I'm just sitting back and waiting for the dumb posts about sun angle.

soon. very soon!

 

I brought it up in January when people said winter was over

[TheManWithNoFace]

H5 last 8 runs of the nam for 1pm Thursday. Lot's of moving parts in here. Key features are the departing TPV over southern New England, sticking around long enough in later runs to suppress the height field ahead of the approaching shortwave. Then there's the question of whether we get one consolidated vortmax in the trough or if it breaks into two pieces, bringing the longer duration/colder/flatter scenario. Also worth watching is the energy over the northern Plains and how it wants to interact in trough. SE ridge modelling looks stable here. Snow to sleet to rain for most of NJ, but could easily trend back to the warmer solutions of a couple days ago or a more compressed height field and a harder thump. Lots of moving parts.

H5 

[NJwx85]

WAA snows remind me of the November system from a few years ago that caught everyone off guard.

[weatherpruf]

4 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

WAA snows remind me of the November system from a few years ago that caught everyone off guard.

The only decent snow that season...when I see snow in Oct or Nov now, I don't expect much after....there's some theory for this but it's beyond my understanding.But I do remember a storm in 2014 that laid down a nice thump then flipped to rain for hours, and back to some snow and sleet to cap it off....was the  last big one that year....