February 16th Disco

[CoastalWx]

Easy E

[ORH_wxman]

5 minutes ago, RDRY said:

Okay, freezing rain. Either way, snow and sleet now seem to be confined to extreme NNE.

Yes the trend is def warmer in the midlevels. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

My wife tested positive for Covid so we’ll be in the house for the next 10 days either way, so bring on whatever at this point 

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

We're sort of QPF limited for a big ice storm here. 0.5"-1.0" of all ZR will cause some issues but definitely short of what you need for the ice storm that Kevin dreams about. 

Hate to say that. 

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, CT Rain said:

We're sort of QPF limited for a big ice storm here. 0.5"-1.0" of all ZR will cause some issues but definitely short of what you need for the ice storm that Kevin dreams about. 

Yeah, I was mentioning this earlier (I think yesterday) about the QPF aspect. I’d normally want to see at least 2” of qpf for major ice storm concerns unless it’s like 1.25-1.50 protracted out over like 36-48 hours from mostly light intensity stuff. 

[mahk_webstah]

2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

My wife tested positive for Covid so we’ll be in the house for the next 10 days either way, so bring on whatever at this point 

Good luck to her, and to you.

[Damage In Tolland]

5 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

We're sort of QPF limited for a big ice storm here. 0.5"-1.0" of all ZR will cause some issues but definitely short of what you need for the ice storm that Kevin dreams about. 

It’s rare we get 3 state regions to get near over an inch of qpf as zr . Very rare 

[CT Rain]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah, I was mentioning this earlier (I think yesterday) about the QPF aspect. I’d normally want to see at least 2” of qpf for major ice storm concerns unless it’s like 1.25-1.50 protracted out over like 36-48 hours from mostly light intensity stuff. 

Yup for sure. I mean I guess it could always bump up but a quick thump probably doesn't get it done.

Also the NWS is now forecasting straight "flat ice" accretion. No more radial. So 0.5" of flat ice accretion is the new warning threshold but you won't start seeing major impacts until at least 0.75" and probably more like 1.0"

Radial ice = flat ice * 0.4 

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, CT Rain said:

Yup for sure. I mean I guess it could always bump up but a quick thump probably doesn't get it done.

Also the NWS is now forecasting straight "flat ice" accretion. No more radial. So 0.5" of flat ice accretion is the new warning threshold but you won't start seeing major impacts until at least 0.75" and probably more like 1.0"

Radial ice = flat ice * 0.4 

Yeah the new criteria using flat ice makes the warnings a lot easier to verify...and makes the warning a lot less menacing than it used to be. It’s still a pretty good icing event, but the old ice storm warning was like “whoa, this is pretty serious”. 

[EastonSN+]

Fv3 for both

[CT Rain]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah the new criteria using flat ice makes the warnings a lot easier to verify...and makes the warning a lot less menacing than it used to be. It’s still a pretty good icing event, but the old ice storm warning was like “whoa, this is pretty serious”. 

For sure. We've had a couple decent events in CT over the last few years where we've been able to fine tune the impacts with certain flat ice amounts thanks to the ASOS I group. Once you get to 0.5" you start seeing some limbs snap and outages and over 0.75" it starts to get more significant. 

[GCWarrior]

46 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

I see lots of sleet for us.  Even if it turns to freezing rain it’s going to be coming down too hard to cause extensive tree and powerline damage.  This isn’t 48 hours of freezing drizzle, It’s a fast moving system.

Yeah hopefully a little bit of snow and then mostly sleet here at beast.  Freezing rain doesn’t scare me though The masses will just rip up the rain Crust

[SlantStickers Anonymous]

11 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

My wife tested positive for Covid so we’ll be in the house for the next 10 days either way, so bring on whatever at this point 

Wishing her and you well, TBlizz 

[Damage In Tolland]

Bethany was leveled by under .75” accretion couple years ago 

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, CT Rain said:

For sure. We've had a couple decent events in CT over the last few years where we've been able to fine tune the impacts with certain flat ice amounts thanks to the ASOS I group. Once you get to 0.5" you start seeing some limbs snap and outages and over 0.75" it starts to get more significant. 

Yeah and that matches with my old radial anecdotes....I always noticed around a quarter inch radial is when you’d start seeing the scattered power outages and then at around 1/3 or 3/8ths is when it would start to seem to “ramp up”. 

[CT Rain]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Bethany was leveled by under .75” accretion couple years ago 

It was closer to an inch and they were hit hard. 

[CoastalWx]

15 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

Yup for sure. I mean I guess it could always bump up but a quick thump probably doesn't get it done.

Also the NWS is now forecasting straight "flat ice" accretion. No more radial. So 0.5" of flat ice accretion is the new warning threshold but you won't start seeing major impacts until at least 0.75" and probably more like 1.0"

Radial ice = flat ice * 0.4 

That’s been an issue for verification for us. We usually do reviews for larger winter events and I had to remind the group about not just going back and counting the 6hr I group. 

[ice1972]

I’m sorry radial vs flat ice?  Is that like accretion on a tree limb vs accretion on a sidewalk or something?

[moneypitmike]

30 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

Low 50s for Groton! 

That's the New London I love.

15 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

For sure. We've had a couple decent events in CT over the last few years where we've been able to fine tune the impacts with certain flat ice amounts thanks to the ASOS I group. Once you get to 0.5" you start seeing some limbs snap and outages and over 0.75" it starts to get more significant. 

I'm gathering from what I've been reading that the max strip might be about .5" accretion.  So perhaps some issues, nothing epic.  It'll be pretty in any case.

[CT Rain]

1 minute ago, ice1972 said:

I’m sorry radial vs flat ice?  Is that like accretion on a tree limb vs accretion on a sidewalk or something?

[crossbowftw3]

2 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

That's the New London I love.

I'm gathering from what I've been reading that the max strip might be about .5" accretion.  So perhaps some issues, nothing epic.  It'll be pretty in any case.

I could say some higher elevations that never fully clear the cold see .6 but probably more isolated in any regard 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

NWS BOX not even rolling with any advisories at this point.

#unimpressed 

[moneypitmike]

2 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

NWS BOX not even rolling with any advisories at this point.

#unimpressed 

Probably looking for greater confidence on the zr/ip mix.   We see WSW up 24+ hours before events.  For most, this will likely be an advisory event so putting those up later today should be ample notice.

[mahk_webstah]

Am I understanding that the trend so far at 12Z is colder surface and maybe aloft on the Nam, and warmer surface and maybe aloft on the GFS.  Is the other guidance picking a camp yet?

[CoastalWx]

Reggie pretty warm. Brings low right over my head. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Temperatures don’t really get above freezing the rest of the week so any ice may stick around until next system moves in late week. Sun angle should help with branches and power lines though.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Reggie pretty warm. Brings low right over my head. 

That track would bring sleet/ice right up through CNE.  

[Damage In Tolland]

This picks out MT. Tolland 

 

[dendrite]

1 hour ago, mahk_webstah said:

Thanks for interpreting that for me.  The pack will certainly be solidified in any event and then we see about Thursday-Friday.

12k looked like about 50/50 snow and sleet for CON...3km maybe a little more sleet. You being a little more north helps. Hopefully we stay mostly snow. I hate clearing tons of sleet.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

This picks out MT. Tolland 

 

That's not storm total either, still 3-5 hours to go especially in northern CT.