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February 15-16 Event


Ralph Wiggum
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1 minute ago, RedSky said:

ECM is alone with it, usually when it has no support it's wrong.

 

It’s far from alone. Alot of guidance has .75-1” qpf with temps of 32-33 degrees. It’s still 3 days out and much can change but the general consensus is someone’s going to get a lot of ice.  

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7 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Exactly....the usual zones (upper montco, upper Bucks, berks, lehigh, n chesco) are in trouble.

That’s what im saying, I should have clarified. I have 16”+ snowpack, I think those areas you highlighted should prepare for the worst, and hopefully expect rain. But I just don’t see it

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15 minutes ago, RedSky said:

Thing about an ice storm is experienced countless 28-32F moderate rain ice events and none were eventful, take temps 25 and below for significant ice accrual.

 

I would go lower during daytime. 27F today and light drizzle and nothing. Took a stroll and everything was wet.

People don't want to admit it but the sun angle is kicking in...27F currently, no ice.  

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9 minutes ago, Birds~69 said:

I would go lower during daytime. 27F today and light drizzle and nothing. Took a stroll and everything was wet.

People don't want to admit it but the sun angle is kicking in...27F currently, no ice.  

I do not understand what you mean about sun angle at 27 degrees?

Changing the subject...I live in north Wales boro and have a temperature of 25.

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Naefs still indicating a minor possibly moderate flood threat this week for the areas that won't stay frozen especially in the smaller tributaries.

https://www.weather.gov/erh/mmefs?Lat=40&Lon=-77&Zoom=7

And that doesn't include all of the storm drains that are blocked and frozen around here, there's going to be a lot of water with nowhere to go. 

 

Lehigh valley and other elevated areas will have to watch for ice but I just still do not seeing it be that big of a deal from central bucks/montco s and e but hey maybe the euro will finally score a coup after being hot garbage all year.

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10 minutes ago, blue sky said:

I do not understand what you mean about sun angle at 27 degrees?

Changing the subject...I live in north Wales boro and have a temperature of 25.

You're older than me and if you don't know what sun angle means by now, I don't know what to tell you. Not being disrespectful.

Accu weather/Weather Underground have me at 27F. Could they be off by a degree or so...sure? 

 

 

 

aw.jpg

wu.jpg

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5 minutes ago, Birds~69 said:

You're older than me and if you don't know what sun angle means by now, I don't know what to tell you. Not being disrespectful.

Accu weather/Weather Underground have me at 27F. Could they be off by a degree or so...sure? 

 

 

 

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Sun Angle effects temperature.  Warmer in summers...colder in winter.  How does it affect this storm at 25-27 degrees? 

Accue weather had me at 25 in the boro.

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1 minute ago, blue sky said:

Sun Angle effects temperature.  Warmer in summers...colder in winter.  How does it affect this storm at 25-27 degrees? 

Accue weather had me at 25 in the boro.

It will heat the surface more so than Dec, Jan...slowly but surely ice/snow will be harder to accumulate on surfaces. I've gone Trout fishing in late March/early April w/early temps in the 20s/30s and by the end of the day, sunburned w/a high of 45-50F.  

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24 minutes ago, Birds~69 said:

You're older than me and if you don't know what sun angle means by now, I don't know what to tell you. Not being disrespectful.

Accu weather/Weather Underground have me at 27F. Could they be off by a degree or so...sure? 

 

 

 

aw.jpg

wu.jpg

Has nothing to do with sun angle in this case.  Good lord

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1 hour ago, RedSky said:

Thing about an ice storm is experienced countless 28-32F moderate rain ice events and none were eventful, take temps 25 and below for significant ice accrual.

 

Nighttime is a different story though. Feb. 5th 2014 we had freezing rain between midnight and 8 am, all between 30-32F, and lost power for 3 days. Of course there was snow stuck to trees from a wet snow a couple of days before, which accelerated the process, but we did get about 3/8" of ice overnight. 

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