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Contest - The D's - DCA/DFW/DEN Temp Forecast - Prize Inside


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11 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

DCA 40 at 4 p.m. ... assume we are taking 4 p.m. local readings for DFW and DEN which are one and two hours behind. But if not, current hourly obs are 13  at DFW and 16 at DEN.

Yup..just saw the DCA figure.  I forgot to specify but I think it's implied that 4 pm is 4 pm locally not east coast time.   So we have to wait on Denver and Dallas.

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For DFW, today's normal high and low are 60 and 39 F. The former record low (already broken) was 15 in 1909. The lowest hourly so far today is 4, and climate report just out indicates that's now the new record low. The high for the day is given as 14F at 4:16 p.m., no doubt a record low max (will update this report when they update their record reports). 

Yesterday (14th) had a record low max of 22 which broke a former record of 27 set in 1951. That year also set the previous daily snowfall record of 3.0" (yesterday 4.0"). Only a trace of snow was added after midnight, snow depth remains 4" for today's early climate report. Yesterday's midnight low of 9 also set a daily record for the 14th. 

This cold outbreak has made it into northeast Mexico, earlier today 24 F at Matamoros across from Brownsville. Even a couple of hundred miles south of there it was only 32 at Ciudad Victoria and 41 at Tampico. These have to be close to all-time record low readings. It has only warmed a few degrees from those morning readings and currently it's 30 (a.m. 18) at Corpus Christi and 23 (a.m. 17) at Houston. 

(4 p.m. DEN came in at 18F). 

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Just now, Deck Pic said:

There are some pretty big disparities on the mins tonight.  You're probably out of it, but I think a good 6-8 people are still in it.

I think everyone might bust way too cold for DCA. I went warm on DEN min too and that’s not going to go well. 

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43 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I knew I was too low on DCA and didn’t change it. I always do this :axe: .

 

41 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Why did I go warm in DEN? What a fool I am.

you guys are probably mathematically alive....havent done a deep dive..I think wxdude is the favorite but is vulnerable

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2 hours ago, RIC Airport said:

Screenshot 2021-02-16 084047.jpg

I don't believe I ever experienced subzero temps in my old MD backyard in all the years that I've followed the weather in the area from 2002 to 2019. 

But there it was in Dallas last night, after a high of 14 which smashed the previous record low of 15 for the date. Absolutely incredible. 

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These departures are absolutely nuts.

                                          STATION:   DALLAS/FORT WORTH
                                          MONTH:     FEBRUARY
                                          YEAR:      2021
                                          LATITUDE:   32 54 N
                                          LONGITUDE:  97  2 W

  TEMPERATURE IN F:       :PCPN:    SNOW:  WIND      :SUNSHINE: SKY     :PK WND
================================================================================
1   2   3   4   5  6A  6B    7    8   9   10  11  12  13   14  15   16   17  18
                                     12Z  AVG MX 2MIN
DY MAX MIN AVG DEP HDD CDD  WTR  SNW DPTH SPD SPD DIR MIN PSBL S-S WX    SPD DR
================================================================================

 1  59  34  47   0  18   0 0.00  0.0    0  7.1 14 350   M    M   3        19 330
 2  64  39  52   5  13   0 0.00  0.0    0  8.0 16 110   M    M   7        20 180
 3  72  39  56   8   9   0 0.00  0.0    0 14.9 28 190   M    M   6        37 190
 4  64  44  54   6  11   0 0.00  0.0    M 16.0 29 190   M    M   5        40 190
 5  58  37  48   0  17   0 0.00  0.0    M  6.1 13 160   M    M   5        20 140
 6  59  38  49   1  16   0 0.00  0.0    M 11.6 24 320   M    M   7        32 310
 7  57  35  46  -2  19   0 0.00  0.0    M  9.2 18 170   M    M   4        26 160
 8  67  39  53   5  12   0 0.01  0.0    M 13.8 24 340   M    M   8 1      29 340
 9  39  30  35 -14  30   0    T  0.0    0 12.4 18 350   M    M  10 1      22 330
10  31  28  30 -19  35   0    T  0.0    0 13.7 21 360   M    M  10 16     25 350
11  29  24  27 -22  38   0    T  0.0    0 15.1 22 350   M    M  10 16     27 350
12  26  21  24 -25  41   0    T  0.0    0 15.5 21 360   M    M  10 168    26 360
13  33  20  27 -22  38   0    T  0.0    0 15.4 22  10   M    M   9 16     32  20
14  22   9  16 -34  49   0 0.14  4.0    T 18.3 25 340   M    M  10 12469   35  10
15  14   4   9 -41  56   0 0.05    T    4 18.4 30 340   M    M   5 8      36 330
================================================================================
SM  694  441       402   0  0.20  4.0    195.5          M      109
================================================================================
AV 46.3 29.4                              13.0 FASTST   M    M   7    MAX(MPH)
                                 MISC ---->    30 340                 40 190
================================================================================

PRELIMINARY LOCAL CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA (WS FORM: F-6) , PAGE 2

                                          STATION:   DALLAS/FORT WORTH
                                          MONTH:     FEBRUARY
                                          YEAR:      2021
                                          LATITUDE:   32 54 N
                                          LONGITUDE:  97  2 W

[TEMPERATURE DATA]      [PRECIPITATION DATA]       

AVERAGE MONTHLY: 37.8   TOTAL FOR MONTH:   0.20    
DPTR FM NORMAL: -10.6   DPTR FM NORMAL:   -1.16    
HIGHEST:    72 ON  3    GRTST 24HR  0.16 ON 14-15   
LOWEST:      4 ON 15                               

https://w2.weather.gov/climate/index.php?wfo=fwd

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Here is where we stand right now as we wait for DCA min, which won't likely be until midnight.  Guidance has DCA at 29-30-ish...

It really comes down to Wxdude and RIC airport.   31 degrees would be a tie.    Mordecai/H20/Luvr I believe are mathematically eliminated.  Weather 53 needs it to be 25 or colder at DCA which is probably too much to ask for.  

ukfasuL.png

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8 minutes ago, Deck Pic said:

Here is where we stand right now as we wait for DCA min, which won't likely be until midnight.  Guidance has DCA at 29-30-ish...

It really comes down to Wxdude and RIC airport.   31 degrees would be a tie.    Mordecai/H20/Luvr I believe are mathematically eliminated.  Weather 53 needs it to be 25 or colder at DCA which is probably too much to ask for.  

ukfasuL.png

Yeah I’m out but I can finish second. Denver killed me

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