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February 10-12 event obs


snowfan
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22 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Battlezone is right overhead and more and more moisture is streaming in. Qpf surprises are much more likely with this type of setup. Like in the spring with a stalled front. Sometime it pours more than forecast. 

Eta: models always have trouble with placement and amounts with these deals unlike organzied low pressure systems. Ive said this a few times but model spread just like this week is totally normal. Try tracking a juicy stalled front in the spring and you'll see. But nobody cares then... Models are getting bashed and its not right. They've done a fine and typical job. Not all events are equal

As someone who has bashed the models this is true. In the spring we’d ignore a burst of showers along a frontal boundary. But we all know not to take those forecasts too seriously. Add in some p type issues and it’s not an easy forecast. 
 

I still think it’s incredible that modeling is still so unreliable. But it goes to show how good the pros are. They held firm to an advisory event here and warning snows up north. And they don’t look too dumb right now. 

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5 minutes ago, Rhino16 said:

Currently 39° with the WSWatch.
You all are lucky... you get to see snow, and I have to wait down here in Richmond for probably 1”... I’ll still take it, but wish I didn’t have to wait.

If it makes you feel better I won’t get an inch from wave 1 or 2.  And apparently it’s pouring rain in Winchester.  You should feel good about your position.  

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