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February 10-12 event obs


snowfan
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With this basically being a stalled warm front type of precip event, mountains aren't going to make much of a difference downstream. Plenty of gulf moisture streaming in. Clippers and any other weak northern stream systems are way different. Often painfully different for my yard. Tonight is pretty juicy for all under the best stuff. Hopefully my yard in particular

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2 minutes ago, arlwx said:

IMO, it's all about elevation plus distance from the Potomac.

I'm about 100 feet up from DCA.  Pixee may be as much as 300 feet up, maybe a bit further away from the Potomac, and Fort Reno is up around 400 feet.

So I wouldn't be surprised to see DCA get maybe an inch if generously measured, me an inch or so, and Pixee and Fort Reno get the 3 promised NWS inches.

That's ASS-U-MEing equal QPF.

The bulk of SE is east of the anacostia river (not capitol hill SE) is pretty much elevation and hills. You can actually see it from I295 or  if you look across Sousa bridge. The whole horizon going from say, Northeast to the naval base area. I'm actually at 143 feet. Neighbors behind me are over 180-200ish, and down the block 75. Its like that everywhere here. Since all the news coverage is based in NW they tend to not pay too much attention. Navy yard proper is a concrete jungle now since the retrofit, hot as blazes in the summer.

Now 34 degrees. Cars and non paved surfaces have a light snow coating. Streets seem just wet right now.

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5 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

If you look on precipitation depiction radar you see that the back edge of this first batch over dc isn’t progressing to the East much, it kinda keeps filling in.  Maybe a sign it’ll link up with the new stuff coming over the mountains.

Battlezone is right overhead and more and more moisture is streaming in. Qpf surprises are much more likely with this type of setup. Like in the spring with a stalled front. Sometime it pours more than forecast. 

Eta: models always have trouble with placement and amounts with these deals unlike organzied low pressure systems. Ive said this a few times but model spread just like this week is totally normal. Try tracking a juicy stalled front in the spring and you'll see. But nobody cares then... Models are getting bashed and its not right. They've done a fine and typical job. Not all events are equal

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