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February 14-16 Winter Storm


Hoosier
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5 minutes ago, Baum said:

Under a WWA for 5-9" which is a bit different here for that forecast amount. Despite the tick back east by the NAM still gives me 3-6" which is my thinking. Can also say we do get some enhancement out this far west in the right situations as RC stated. 

Thinking without any lake bail out here and chances for further NAM SE  recorrection ticks  1-2" still looks good.

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14 minutes ago, WeatherMonger said:

Can you make my call as well? :lol:

 

Only thing out of ILX on Facebook is about the cold. Someone asked them about higher totals, sais LSX had mentioned it but they did not respond.

 

Went to LSX page and seen this. Cautiously optimistic, yet knowing howbthings usually pan out keeps me a bit pessimistic.

 

Screenshot_20210214-144906_Facebook.thumb.jpg.b04256488ecc2a0e29cb94882b052a37.jpg

Nice! Looking like they'll upgrade us soon. 

EDIT: just happened: 6-9'' call STL metro

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12 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said:

Grr basically cutting kuchera totals in half for eastern counties, 4-7. Once again dtx smoking doobies, watching reruns of dumb and dumber while new england offices have headlines up and they are a day behind in impact. 

lol DTX going advisory from midnight tonight thru noon Tuesday with 1-2 tonight/tmrw morning plus 3-6 tmrw night/tues morning. So essentially an advisory for 4-8".  God forbid there's that break in the snow lol, I have seen East Coast cities consider 3 and 4 day snow totals 1 "storm" despite full 24 hour breaks of nothing.  We will see what they say in the morning

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2 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

lol DTX going advisory from midnight tonight thru noon Tuesday with 1-2 tonight/tmrw morning plus 3-6 tmrw night/tues morning. So essentially an advisory for 4-8".  God forbid there's that break in the snow lol, I have seen East Coast cities consider 3 and 4 day snow totals 1 "storm" despite full 24 hour breaks of nothing.  We will see what they say in the morning

I'm not one to criticize every NWS decision, but they probably should've gone with a warning.  The 8" in 24 hours may very well be met, but even if it's not, the very cold temps and timing will make it higher impact.

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6 minutes ago, Cary67 said:

Thinking without any lake bail out here and chances for further NAM SE  recorrection ticks  1-2" still looks good.

yeah, it's tough on the fringes as ticks one way or the other change things dramatically as we know. One aspect is in this cold air won't take much on the far NW edge to squeeze something out. It's be nice to see models hold or see a tick back NW. Thought it's not all about the models as LOT mentioned:

" BASED ON A DISCUSSION WITH THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER (WPC),   
THE CHANGES HAVE TO DO WITH A TREND TOWARD A STRONGER SYSTEM   
OVERALL, AND HENCE BETTER MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO ITS BACKSIDE AND IN   
OUR NECK OF THE WOODS."

 

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4 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

lol DTX going advisory from midnight tonight thru noon Tuesday with 1-2 tonight/tmrw morning plus 3-6 tmrw night/tues morning. So essentially an advisory for 4-8".  God forbid there's that break in the snow lol, I have seen East Coast cities consider 3 and 4 day snow totals 1 "storm" despite full 24 hour breaks of nothing.  We will see what they say in the morning

 Well that bodes well for yall because In the past whenever they are too conservative, we always end up overachieving and they upgrade to a warning after 8" has already fallen. O well some things never change.  Nobody really trusts the meteorologists forecasts in Michigan anyway so that's probably why they get away with it.

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7 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

I'm not one to criticize every NWS decision, but they probably should've gone with a warning.  The 8" in 24 hours may very well be met, but even if it's not, the very cold temps and timing will make it higher impact.

They screwed up, not only for that reason but they are grossly lowballing compared to the adjacent offices. Its a bad forecast.

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1 minute ago, Stebo said:

They screwed up, not only for that reason but they are grossly lowballing compared to the adjacent offices. Its a bad forecast.

 They do this all the time and I don't understand why. They are notorious for lowballing, both DTX and GRR. They are so advisory happy all the time. Grand Rapids is actually even worse. They get a wind blowing off Lake Michigan and theyre issuing an advisory for an inch of Lake effect snow, then they get a storm to drop 8" of snow they also issue an advisory. 

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4 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

 They do this all the time and I don't understand why. They are notorious for lowballing, both DTX and GRR. They are so advisory happy all the time. Grand Rapids is actually even worse. They get a wind blowing off Lake Michigan and theyre issuing an advisory for an inch of Lake effect snow, then they get a storm to drop 8" of snow they also issue an advisory. 

 The worst part is all the local news channels basically copy and paste what the nws says in there headlines. I wish they would make their own forecast totals.

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I’ll start by saying IWX does a good job overall. I think they could have just issued WSW for their entire CWA, but it’s not a bad decision to go with a WWA for its northwest counties. The maps looks a little weird since LOT went with warnings, but it’s less of a shock to the public if South Bend starts as a WWA and upgraded later to a warning. Also, gives them wiggle room if amounts trend lower.

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Just now, sbnwx85 said:

I’ll start by saying IWX does a good job overall. I think they could have just issued WSW for their entire CWA, but it’s not a bad decision to go with a WWA for its northwest counties. The maps looks a little weird since LOT went with warnings, but it’s less of a shock to the public if South Bend starts as a WWA and upgraded later to a warning. Also, gives them wiggle room if amounts trend lower.

Yea i think any office would rather have their forecast be overdone than underdone which confuses me about dtx.

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Re. those regional maps, there's latency issues on NDFD, so if one office published their grids later than the data grab time for that particular map, it'll use the previous update. Would wait until about 4pm CST and 5pm EST to be sure those are the latest maps from each office.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

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4 minutes ago, Harry Perry said:

Have a feeling some DTX and GRR areas may go warning come tomorrow sometime, but as Bill Marino (GRR) stated they didn’t want to confuse the public with two separate WSW’s (tonight’s inch or two compared to tomorrow nights 5-8”) which is understandable. We’ll see. 

IWX did the exact opposite because there may not be much of a lull

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48 minutes ago, Cary67 said:

Thinking without any lake bail out here and chances for further NAM SE  recorrection ticks  1-2" still looks good.

18z NAM took about 5" of snow away with it in our neck of the woods. Now we've got to hope the RGEM is right. lol Yeah, we were right not to bite on the "nw trend" actually benefiting us. 

Remember when I moved up here, in part, to get out of the city so I could actually get some snow? hahahahahahahahaha

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Just now, Stebo said:

IWX did the exact opposite because there may not be much of a lull

I’m seeing that as well.. seems like it would’ve been wise to just go with warnings where they are warranted and wording about a potential lull.   Will be interesting to see how it unfolds. I think your forecast is spot-on. 

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6 minutes ago, McHenrySnow said:

18z NAM took about 5" of snow away with it in our neck of the woods. Now we've got to hope the RGEM is right. lol Yeah, we were right not to bite on the "nw trend" actually benefiting us. 

Remember when I moved up here, in part, to get out of the city so I could actually get some snow? hahahahahahahahaha

Your climo is better in November and December and worse in Jan and Feb, that’s how it goes 

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