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February 14-16 Winter Storm


Hoosier
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4 minutes ago, AWMT30 said:

Nice man! Hope you are enjoying it down there ya prick haha 

Yea been down here since nov 1st. The weathers been so nice. Its rained 3 days since then and above avg temps in the 80s everyday during this arctic intrusion the past 7 days up north. Ive been really rooting for y'all up there all winter. Hopefully this storm or the next one can deliver finally for ya. Good luck.

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1 minute ago, Stevo6899 said:

Yea been down here since nov 1st. The weathers been so nice. Its rained 3 days since then and above avg temps in the 80s everyday during this arctic intrusion the past 7 days up north. Ive been really rooting for y'all up there all winter. Hopefully this storm or the next one can deliver finally for ya. Good luck.

Thanks we are trying to reel this one in. Especially Josh and myself! Miss you on the chat on FB man! Be well! 

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10 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

NSSL WRF is almost 18" for downtown Chicago by 00z Tuesday and still ripping at the end of the run. 5f8f5f956f2295150e8dae4f785ae422.jpg

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
 

Common theme amongst most of those models (including the HRRR and RAP) is for big amounts somewhere near the IL/IN shore... or both.  Obviously I hope it's around here but depending on where it is, I may take a quick ride into it. 

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Coldest airmass of the season settling in, had 50:1 ratios with the overnight/morning system. Not anticipating that type for this system by any means, but hopefully it can overperform for a lot of us snow starved, and by snow starved I'm speaking to depth of snow rather than season total. 

 

I'm just glad snow is in the forecast during the arctic surge, rooting for it to wring the atmosphere of every drop available :lol:

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6 minutes ago, mimillman said:

Any way y’a slice it, this is a very impressive lake effect signal and arguably the most promising set up in years for delivery in the Chicago metro 

Arlington Heights with an inch while parts of downtown Chicago end up with 18”+ would be insane. 

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Reference LES - LOT AFD update (click link for additional discussion on tomorrow night and Monday):

Quote

Finally, we did toss around the idea of needing a Winter Storm
Watch for parts of the northeast Illinois shore for later Sunday
evening through Monday with the signal for potentially significant
lake effect snowfall increasing. LES parameters aren`t overly-
stellar, but the potential for a nearly full-lake fetch along with
lake-induced CAPE values of a few hundred J/kg with the 925-850
mb layer essentially completely within the dendritic growth zone
lends some credibility to the 0.50+" QPF forecasts with the
incoming hires guidance. SLRs in this type of setup would
undoubtedly be high, likely 20-25:1, so you can probably see where
I`m going here. Given the fickle nature of these setups, elected
to defer any decision to the midnight shift, but do note that
the threat for significant LES snowfall somewhere along the NE
Illinois/NW Indiana shore exists into Monday.

 

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