KokomoWX Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 A little positivity from NWS Indy. I think the Ohio posters are going to get buried. Quote Looking through probabilistic data, there`s around a one in five shot of 6 inches, and 8 to even 12 inches in those 36 hours isn`t out of the question. Right now, the better chances for higher amounts are east and southeast, but it is still early and there is variability in the track that could significantly affect the outcome. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snownado Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Winter Storm Watch for Indy. 5-7". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fyrfyter Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Doesn't even kick in until end of the weekend. Talk about jumping the gun... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zinski1990 Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Yah I cant remember the last time Indy issued a Watch so early. They're usually slower than everyone lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fyrfyter Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 2 minutes ago, zinski1990 said: Yah I cant remember the last time Indy issued a Watch so early. They're usually slower than everyone lol Nope - ILN is by far the slowest. We just call it the donut hole - when everyone else has already issued theirs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 15 minutes ago, Snownado said: Winter Storm Watch for Indy. 5-7". Must be looking at the cmc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 3 minutes ago, fyrfyter said: Nope - ILN is by far the slowest. We just call it the donut hole - when everyone else has already issued theirs. Truth!!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 silly 18z NAM still thinks that the snow will reach into IL on Monday I guess the GFS hasnt informed it yet!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fyrfyter Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 ILN just issued a Winter Storm Watch for its CWA! https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=iln&wwa=winter storm watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 ARP2 on the plumes has 20" for ORD. So you got that going for you, which is nice. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Just now, Thundersnow12 said: ARP2 on the plumes has 20" for ORD. So you got that going for you, which is nice. is that the good one? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Just now, A-L-E-K said: is that the good one? 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 7 minutes ago, ILSNOW said: silly 18z NAM still thinks that the snow will reach into IL on Monday I guess the GFS hasnt informed it yet!!! if your talking the sun/mon wave where the NAM/GEM show snow and the GFS shows zero...do a compromise like the incoming event and go 1-3". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 12, 2021 Author Share Posted February 12, 2021 LOT just briefly touched on the lake enhancement/effect potential in the afternoon afd. The thermodynamics would support 1-2" per hour rates in the heart of the band imo. If we had higher inversion heights, then I think it would be one of those that would be capable of 3-4" per hour rates. But it's hard to envision those kind of rates with the somewhat limited depth of the mixed layer. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 It's the end of the NAM but it did come in more amplified with the ejecting wave Monday afternoon and evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 I'm riding it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Time for me to fold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Interesting tidbit from the NWS in Cleveland in their afternoon AFD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Anyone mind posting the Euro snow map for this storm. Offices seem to be riding this more than what the GFS and others are showing. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 1 minute ago, Frog Town said: Anyone mind posting the Euro snow map for this storm. Offices seem to be riding this more than what the GFS and others are showing. Thanks! 10:1. Kuchera. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 12, 2021 Author Share Posted February 12, 2021 Now somebody post the Pivotal Kuchera for the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 12, 2021 Author Share Posted February 12, 2021 RGEM actually whiffs me to the northwest through much of Sunday. Nice plot twist. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Can someone explain the difference between the two snow maps above?? I guess I always thought the Kuchera was I higher ratio version, but the difference above seems to be more than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 12, 2021 Author Share Posted February 12, 2021 Houston is under a winter storm watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 1 minute ago, Frog Town said: Can someone explain the difference between the two snow maps above?? I guess I always thought the Kuchera was I higher ratio version, but the difference above seems to be more than that. If I recall correctly, the Kuchera takes into account the actual air temperatures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blue60007 Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 7 minutes ago, Jim Martin said: If I recall correctly, the Kuchera takes into account the actual air temperatures. It does, and it takes into account the entire thermal profile (not just air temps). That said, the weather bell implementation is totally wonky, or they are purposely inflated. Their maps are always bonkers. The pivotal ones are more true to form, and slightly more realistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
miamarsden8 Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 From the ILN area... ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 8 inches. Some sleet and freezing rain may mix in with the snow across South Central Ohio and Northeast Kentucky. * WHERE...Portions of East Central and Southeast Indiana, Northeast and Northern Kentucky and Central, South Central, Southwest and West Central Ohio. * WHEN...From Sunday evening through Tuesday afternoon. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation. Yep, I'm riding this. Only thing that could screw us is if it warms up too much, but I'm feeling this one. 4-8 is a fair amount, but I wouldn't be stunned if it's more. All I know is that I told my s/o that Cincy has weak, boring winters. I have for one year been proven wrong. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Expecting more Winter Storm Watches to be issued later tonight into the overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 12, 2021 Author Share Posted February 12, 2021 5 hours ago, Hoosier said: Here's a forecast sounding from southern Lake Michigan at 84 hrs. Nice omega (pink lines on left) overlay in the dgz. From a delta T perspective, I don't remember another setup with this good of a delta T on the western/southwestern shoreline this winter. Just to touch on this again. I have been thinking about it and am struggling to remember the last time that a lake enhanced event on the southern/western shore had ~20-22C delta T in place for basically the entire duration of the synoptic system. I'm sure it happens every once in a while but it's far more common to see that toward the tail end of a system as CAA kicks in. Some models are stingy with the inland penetration of the band but the boundary layer flow looks good enough to get it at least several miles inland imo. At least I hope lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 I just got off of the phone with someone in Irving, Texas. I could hear the almost panic in her voice while discussing their forecast. People are freaking out. A lot of snow and zr in their forecast, along with below zero wind chills. The worst thing for them is that it's not going to get above freezing for almost a week. Expect lots of headlines from their area. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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