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February 14-16 Winter Storm


Hoosier
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10 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

It's way too early to be in the concerned phase but just as a matter of that run, the 12z GFS brings back nightmares of 2/24/16.

 

Key takeaway is that it still has a nice storm and would be a good sign if the GEFS members have several good hits. From a sub-forum perspective, looks like a pretty high chance at this range for a widespread warning type event for portions of the sub.

 

 

 

 

now do the weekend event.:lol:

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2 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

the likely over done gfs is ungodly for Dallas. temps 52 degrees below avg.

Temps might not even be overdone.

Models are already running several degrees behind with the shallow low-level cold air (we've been stuck in the low/mid 30s).

Imagine how much colder it will get with a deep snowpack...

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46 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

ukmet going big at the end of the run, obv favoring eastern portions of sub

We gotta get a shortwave with some strength to come along before this cold air retreats and were back to dealing with precip issues. Early indications the euro is still gonna have a respectable storm based on the ridging and location of high pressure. Maybe a lil further east.

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snow action being driven by the ull, 850 travels over central il despite slp well south

suspect this event is suffering from the too tight wave spacing that has impacted some of the others, short waves off the pac come too fast, heights never have a chance to really rise in the east and the baroclinic zone remains shunted south preventing anything big from spinning up. v-day weekend going to dust is probably helping give this a lil more of a window but u know the deal.

Capture.JPG

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5 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

snow action being driven by the ull, 850 travels over central il despite slp well south

suspect this event is suffering from the too tight wave spacing that has impacted some of the others, short waves off the pac come too fast, heights never have a chance to really rise in the east and the baroclinic zone remains shunted south preventing anything big from spinning up. v-day weekend going to dust is probably helping give this a lil more of a window but u know the deal.

Capture.JPG

We might've been talking rainer here if the lobe to the north wasn't there/moved out quickly.  Obviously can have too much of a good thing to where it suppresses this too far south.  Anything is possible but generally speaking, I like the chances of a noteworthy storm in the sub.  I see more than one way to get there.

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2 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

We might've been talking rainer here if the lobe to the north wasn't there/moved out quickly.  Obviously can have too much of a good thing to where it suppresses this too far south.  Anything is possible but generally speaking, I like the chances of a noteworthy storm in the sub.  I see more than one way to get there.

Suppression is better for the southeastern forum.  You'll have the possibility of a better low to dump in the OV, maybe as far northeast as DTX.  Just Alek and me will get whiffed.

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KLOT (not ricky)

Attention will then turn to the Monday/Tuesday timeframe for another
round of snow. Ensemble model guidance is in relatively good
agreement that a storm system will lift form the Plains to the Great
Lakes dropping a swath of snow along the backside. Statistical
Cluster Analysis from the Weather Prediction Center (WPC) shows that
~70% of the CMC, GFS, and ECMWF ensemble members drop at least 0.1"
of precipitation across northern Illinois and northwest Indiana,
with ~50% dropping at least 0.25". The CMC model system is the
driest, while the ECMWF is the wettest. With forecast low-level
thermal profiles expected to remain cold and squarely in the
snowflake growth zone, fluffy snow ratios will again be able to
convert even just 0.10" of liquid to several inches of snow. So,
we`ll need to keep a keen eye on the Monday/Tuesday timeframe for
an impactful snow event somewhere in the Great Lakes.
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