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2/14- 2/16 Winter Storm and Arctic Cold


WestTennWX
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Not saying it's going to happen here, but normally in these cases all the way to the Eastern rim or Western edge of the Plateau will see the low level cold invade, there's just not much to stop it as it spreads across the state. The RGEM looks more like what I'd expect. All I know for sure is that it will be tough on WFO to make the right calls until the event is underway most likely.

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Looks like Memphis finally pulled the trigger-

 

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Memphis TN
254 PM CST Tue Feb 9 2021

...Significant Ice Accumulations Expected Across Portions of the
Mid-South Through Thursday...

ARZ009-018-026>028-MOZ113-115-TNZ001>003-019-100600-
/O.UPG.KMEG.WS.A.0001.210211T0000Z-210211T1800Z/
/O.NEW.KMEG.IS.W.0001.210210T0000Z-210211T1800Z/
Clay-Greene-Craighead-Poinsett-Mississippi-Dunklin-Pemiscot-Lake-
Obion-Weakley-Dyer-
Including the cities of Piggott, Corning, Paragould, Jonesboro,
Harrisburg, Blytheville, Kennett, Caruthersville, Tiptonville,
Union City, Martin, Dresden, and Dyersburg
254 PM CST Tue Feb 9 2021

...ICE STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Significant icing expected. Total ice accumulations of
  two tenths to three tenths of an inch. Some sleet may also
  occur.

* WHERE...Portions of West Tennessee, East Arkansas and
  Southeast Missouri.

* WHEN...From 6 PM this evening to noon CST Thursday. The first
  round of ice accumulations is expected tonight. Greater
  accumulations are expected Wednesday night into Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Power outages and tree damage are likely due to the
  ice. Travel could be nearly impossible. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Travel is strongly discouraged. If you must travel, keep an extra
flashlight, food and water in your vehicle in case of an
emergency. Prepare for possible power outages.

The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can
be obtained by calling 5 1 1.
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Special Weather Statement
for Davidson County

Issued by National Weather Service
Nashville, TN
2:05 PM CST Tue, Feb 9, 2021

...Freezing Rain and Light Ice Accumulations Possible Wednesday Night into the Day Thursday...

Potential for freezing rain and some ice accumulation is possible for areas mainly north of I-40 starting late Wednesday evening through the daytime Thursday. Up to around a tenth of an inch of ice is possible, mainly on grassy and cold surfaces, with the best chance for ice accumulation after midnight through noon Thursday. Temperatures will be right around to just below freezing during that time, with most road temperatures likely staying just above freezing. Widespread power outages and tree damage is not expected, however, slick spots on elevated surfaces may occur. Stay tuned for forecast updates on this evolving weather system.


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Some of these meso scale models have been slowly walking the ice south and east along the swva border with Kentucky, about 1-5 miles a run it seems like.  Really interested to see how geophysics play out on some of the mountains of swva.

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Fairly strong working out of Memphis in this evenings discussion. Wouldn't be surprised to see some of the official expected totals to increase a bit.

 

 

A significant ice storm appears likely across portions of the Mid-
South over the next 48 hours as moist air is forced over the top
of a shallow arctic air mass. The forecast is complicated enough,
but the messaging of hazards covering multiple periods is even
more so. In trying to simplify the process, we`ve opted to start
the Ice Storm Warning to 6 PM this evening for portions of
northeast AR, the Bootheel, and northwest TN. The remaining areas
in the Watch remain unchanged. Now for the nerdy part...

A broad trough is affecting much of the CONUS this afternoon with
a deep vortex centered southwest of Hudson Bay. The flow aloft
remains quasi-zonal with a low-amplitude shortwave trough located
off the CA coast. Closer to home, the quasi-stationary arctic
front extends across north MS into middle TN, separating
temperatures in the 20s and 30s from those in the 50s and 60s.
Automated stations currently range from 28F at Kennett (MO) to 68F
at Aberdeen (MS). Light freezing rain has already occurred in
Jonesboro this afternoon and temperatures aren`t expected to warm
much, if at all, over the next 24+ hours.

We`re watching a strong upper tropospheric jet over the Great
Lakes which will enhance large scale ascent tonight via the
thermally direct circulation in the absence of strong QG forcing.
Isentropic ascent will increase overnight, especially in the
285-290K layers. This will maintain broad lift, resulting in
periods of freezing rain and freezing drizzle north of the quasi-
stationary front. While significant accumulations of ice aren`t
anticipated tonight, there may be enough to create some travel
issues along/north of a line from Harrisburg, to Dyersburg, to
Martin. With this in mind, we went ahead and pushed the start time
of an Ice Storm Warning up to 6 PM this evening, running through
noon Thursday. We won`t see freezing rain or continuous impacts
throughout the duration of the warning as the main focus still
lies in Wednesday night into Thursday as QG forcing for ascent
increases and rain/freezing rain becomes more widespread.

As we saw yesterday, warm advection in the layer around 850 mb
will produce a prominent warm nose around 6-8C. The subfreezing
air north of the arctic front will only be up to 2000 ft deep,
resulting in a classic freezing rain/drizzle sounding. As the cold
air deepens, we may see some sleet (and perhaps some snow) mix in,
but freezing rain looks to be the predominant weather type at the
onset. The front will sag south Wednesday night and Thursday,
allowing the subfreezing air to to approach the I-40 corridor. The
southern extent of where the freezing line will set up by 12z
Thursday is a huge area of uncertainty. This makes the forecast
less certain from Memphis to Jackson but points to the north look
more certain to see significant ice accumulations.

The 25th-75th percentiles ice accumulations for the whole event
range from roughly 1/4 to 1/2 inch of ice from Jonesboro to
Union City. Worst case scenario (90th percentile) has a full inch
of ice in this swath with near 1/2 inch as far south as Memphis
and Jackson. On the other end of the spectrum, the 10th
percentile calls for roughly 2/10 within the Ice Storm Warning.
Needless to say, an inch of ice would be devastating. With all of
this in mind, the official forecast of up to 0.35 inches of ice is
quite conservative and may need to be increased depending on
where the bands of heavier rain develop. We`re certainly watching
this closely and will adjust as needed.

This system looks to move east of the area Thursday evening with a
wintry mix possible as precip winds down. Little in the way of
additional accumulations are expected after sunset. Then the cold
air settles into the Mid-South. We`ll see several days with highs
in the 20s/30s with lows in the teens. Wind chill readings Friday
and Saturday will be quite cold, approaching single digits in
some areas. A fast-moving trough will bring a chance for very
light snow to portions of the area Saturday evening, but no
impacts are anticipated. A reinforcing cold shot will arrive by
Sunday (and Monday), where wind chill values may fall below zero.

Another deep trough is progged to affect the region early next
week, bringing another chance for snow to the Mid-South. Given
the plethora of moving parts between now and then, confidence
remains limited but low PoPs were included Monday and Tuesday.
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1 hour ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

I'll add to John's post, for the TN people:

rUXvlSO.png

 

Look how close the ice gets to the edge of the plateau, but not quite there to the south. Will be interesting to see if it actually pushes just a bit farther and hits the plateau. 

 

I hope not. That would be extremely unusual to have Cookeville get 0.65" of ice and Crossville just get rain though.

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19 minutes ago, Shocker0 said:

 

I hope not. That would be extremely unusual to have Cookeville get 0.65" of ice and Crossville just get rain though.

If you noticed the AFD from Memphis there it said the cold was only 2000 feet deep. The tops of the Plateau will not allow it to cross in spots or be above the cold.  It moves more across Fentress because elevations there are around 1600-1700 feet. 

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14 minutes ago, TellicoWx said:

Euro has already failed in west TN vs reality (similar to how Oklahoma was playing out yesterday). 7pm modeled vs now

20210209_175152.jpg

Screenshot_20210209-175234_Chrome.jpg

Even the RGEM which was about 3 degrees colder than the EURO at the same time is about 5-6 degrees too warm. That may play a major factor from Memphis into the mid-state. 

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1 minute ago, John1122 said:

Even the RGEM which was about 3 degrees colder than the EURO at the same time is about 5-6 degrees too warm. That may play a major factor from Memphis into the mid-state. 

If I lived within 50-75 miles of where the front (ice) was progged, I wouldn't let my guard down. Front is moving thru Nashville..Goodlettsville has been steadily falling just to the NW. 

20210209_181139.jpg

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1 minute ago, TellicoWx said:

If I lived within 50-75 miles of where the front (ice) was progged, I wouldn't let my guard down. Front is moving thru Nashville..Goodlettsville has been steadily falling just to the NW. 

20210209_181139.jpg

I honestly think the cold likely makes it all the way to the edge of the Plateau as modeled by the RGEM. I've just seen it happen too many times. 

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Just now, Blue Moon said:

Starting to really worry about this for my area now.

 

Also, OHX doesn't even have a SWS in effect for Williamson County. They do for Davidson, but they drew the line there. I suppose they're going to wait until the icing occurs in West Tennessee and observe trends before they issue anything. In my opinion, I think that's too late, and the development of an ice storm needs to be broadcast to the public as soon as possible.

I feel you. We had 4.5 inches of snow, closed interstates and widespread power outages when a winter storm warning was finally issued at 4am here.  

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