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Ice/Snow threat Friday-Sunday


BullCityWx
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8 minutes ago, jjwxman said:

The ice maps for the NAM are assuming everything freezes on contact. That’s simply not going to happen with temps 30-32.  Freezing rain as we all know is self limiting anyway.  I’m not an ice fan at all, but if for some reason you like no power for two weeks, you would want the surface temps to be on the order of 26-27.  In Dec 2002 I measured 0.75 on the tree branches in MBY. We managed to stay 26-28 degrees the entire event. 

30-31 is ok for it if the winds are blustery enough and the rainfall rate is light enough. 28-30 is well enough to get the job done. With 30-31, if the winds aren't whipping and the rain is too heavy, a lot is lost as runoff. 

Also, with self limiting- that's moreso an issue in in-situ cads. While I don't think there will be there encroaching, backdoor front of zr sweeping through the region, I think CAA will be strong enough to maintain here for these NC/VA border regions.

Anyone remember the ice storm back in March 2013? I think that was an event that had marginal temps but still packed a hell of an ice storm. 

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GFS itself has the indicator with the isobars backing far down into NC as well. Map verbatim doesn’t look as bad as Nam but you take the qpf output from gfs and combine with nams superiority in low level thermals and you already know you have a big problem setting up for Sat 

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1 hour ago, Tealsnowball said:

I can't remember any to be honest.  Usually when Roanoke is faced with an icy situation, it's primarily sleet.  Aside from the freezing rain we received in December, it hasn't occurred often in my mind.  Normally Floyd is the place that gets hammered by icy events. 

 

For that NAM run, Radford seems to be on the fringe.  Out of sheer curiosity, I have an urge to travel to Floyd, Poor Mountain, Bent Mountain, or Rocky mount to see what a true freezing rain event looks like.

I taught in Floyd County from 74-79.  I got to enjoy several awesome winters there.  You are correct in saying Floyd tends to do well in winter weather situations.  In January of 77 we came back from the Christmas holidays and went to school one day and that was it for January. Every time it seemed as if we might go back to school we would get hit again. Awesome times.

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8 hours ago, BornAgain13 said:

If this verified , it's been probably 20+ years since an ICE storm like this came through 

Yup the year was 1998 that we got 6 inches of sleet and .50 inches of freezing rain when I lived on Chestnut Plateau not to far from where I live now in Franklin County. This was in late February to early March of that year. Was absolutely unbelievable the amount of sleet and the trees just caving under the ice. Of course no power for a week was not fun. I never want to repeat that storm again. 

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9 hours ago, Tealsnowball said:

I can't remember any to be honest.  Usually when Roanoke is faced with an icy situation, it's primarily sleet.  Aside from the freezing rain we received in December, it hasn't occurred often in my mind.  Normally Floyd is the place that gets hammered by icy events. 

 

For that NAM run, Radford seems to be on the fringe.  Out of sheer curiosity, I have an urge to travel to Floyd, Poor Mountain, Bent Mountain, or Rocky mount to see what a true freezing rain event looks like.

When we get Ice storms anywhere from Bent Mountain to Rocky Mount is the place to be to get a true experience. I'm in Rocky Mount Virginia and everyone is not happy about this. If it verified it would be the biggest Ice storm since 98 and the impact will be bad. 

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Portion of this morning’s RAH discussion:

A strong warm nose aloft on the order of 45-50
degrees will overrun the strengthening cold nose
at the surface Friday night and Saturday. The
surface wet bulbs are forecast to fall to 29-32
late Friday night into Saturday morning in these
areas. Therefore, rain will develop Friday
evening/night then possibly become freezing rain
near the VA border counties first, spreading
south into the Triad and northern Triangle (north
Davidson/Forsyth ENE to Orange/northern Durham,
to Warren Counties) between 07z and 15z/Saturday.
A Winter Weather Advisory may be needed if the
current trends hold for these areas Friday night
into Saturday. Since this is 4th and 5th periods,
we will hold off for now. In collaboration with
the surrounding WFOs, we will not issue a watch
as current ice accumulations are expected to be
less than 0.2 of an inch, with most areas 0.05 to
0.10 currently expected. Lows in the lower 30s.
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Just now, magpiemaniac said:

Portion of this morning’s RAH discussion:


A strong warm nose aloft on the order of 45-50
degrees will overrun the strengthening cold nose
at the surface Friday night and Saturday. The
surface wet bulbs are forecast to fall to 29-32
late Friday night into Saturday morning in these
areas. Therefore, rain will develop Friday
evening/night then possibly become freezing rain
near the VA border counties first, spreading
south into the Triad and northern Triangle (north
Davidson/Forsyth ENE to Orange/northern Durham,
to Warren Counties) between 07z and 15z/Saturday.
A Winter Weather Advisory may be needed if the
current trends hold for these areas Friday night
into Saturday. Since this is 4th and 5th periods,
we will hold off for now. In collaboration with
the surrounding WFOs, we will not issue a watch
as current ice accumulations are expected to be
less than 0.2 of an inch, with most areas 0.05 to
0.10 currently expected. Lows in the lower 30s.

Dang if even the Conservative Karen of NWS over there in Raleigh is Taking notes on Tomm night maybe GSP will say something good in a bit

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23 minutes ago, tarheelwx said:

Why are we not getting the true CAD wedge?  For instance, the maps above show Durham more at risk than Mt Airy.  Seems if a true CAD, Hickory to Mt Airy should be the heart of the freezing rain.

TW

That's what I was saying last night, the RGEM shows more of a traditional CAD look back here in NW Piedmont and foothills. 

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Huh? Thunder in Spindale at the college, didn’t expect that...

 

 

Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

 

Edit: just eating lunch at my desk and tuned into TWC, ( I know...sue me...). Seems so weird to see a winter mix way down past Houston and know that there might not be anything on the NC/SC boarder. ...and I can’t believe that pileup on I-35 down in Texas!

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7 minutes ago, The Alchemist said:

Huh? Thunder in Spindale at the college, didn’t expect that...

 

 

Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

 

Edit: just eating lunch at my desk and tuned into TWC, ( I know...sue me...). Seems so weird to see a winter mix way down past Houston and know that there might not be anything on the NC/SC boarder. ...and I can’t believe that pileup on I-35 down in Texas!

Yup. I had the alert pop up and loaded the radar to see something incoming over here in Forest City. 

LOL (Best winter ever)

 

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