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Ice/Snow threat Friday-Sunday


BullCityWx
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2 minutes ago, tarheelwx said:

I remember a devastating ice storm up in Wytheville back in the mid 90's or so.  Every yard I drove past had some sort of tree damage.   Probably at least an inch of ice or so. 

TW

You probably remember 12/02. Most of the accrual in that event happened with heavy rain(thunderstorms actually at one point) at 30 degrees.

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4 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

RGEM looks Uber cold as well for a good portion of the triangle between 60-66. Nicely well defined wedge. 
At 72 the icing output is much lighter up this way but more serious down toward Greensboro and areas directly surrounding. 

RGEM looked more like your typical wedge with colder temps back in the NW Piedmont compared to the NAM that was more east based wedge.

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1 minute ago, tarheelwx said:

Meso hp maybe?

TW

TW this is what I was kind of alluding to the late last night early this morning in one of my posts wrt the overall setup. The winter storm watch that was issued for up here I feel like since we’re starting warm it’s going to be very hard to be able to accrue anything ice wise. Once the wedge actually does establish itself tho I view that as a very concerning piece come Saturday as it will be very hard to dislodge it, more so with it backing and building south/southwest into the day. This could get very real for northern NC/southern VA

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45 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

I’ve lived in ROA since 2011. Is there anything that you can recall or think of that even came close to something like this throughout the decades or years? This is about 60 hours away give or take. We’re not talking 5-6 days out. Pretty crazy to think at an average of 1.30” half would still be .65”. 

If this verified , it's been probably 20+ years since an ICE storm like this came through 

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The ice maps for the NAM are assuming everything freezes on contact. That’s simply not going to happen with temps 30-32.  Freezing rain as we all know is self limiting anyway.  I’m not an ice fan at all, but if for some reason you like no power for two weeks, you would want the surface temps to be on the order of 26-27.  In Dec 2002 I measured 0.75 on the tree branches in MBY. We managed to stay 26-28 degrees the entire event. 

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Just now, jjwxman said:

The ice maps for the NAM are assuming everything freezes on contact. That’s simply not going to happen with temps 30-32.  Freezing rain as we all know is self limiting anyway.  I’m not an ice fan at all, but if for some reason you like no power for two weeks, you would want the surface temps to be on the order of 26-27.  In Dec 2002 I measured 0.75 on the tree branches in MBY. We managed to stay 26-28 degrees the entire event. 

I was at 30-31 for most of freezing rain part of that event 

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I'm 55yrs old and I grew up in Brown Summit, NC which is just northeast of Greensboro. When I was in the 7th grade at NE Guilford Jr High we had three ice storms over a 5 or 6 week period.  Two of the storms were devastating.  No power for a week, twice.  Sleeping by and cooking using the fireplace.  I had a 10 gallon fish tank and most of them did not survive.  It was crazy!

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