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February 13-14 Event


The Iceman
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5 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Which model would handle the current snowpack's effect on 10m temps best? The 3k NAM? Or does no model account for that?

Usually the NAM is good at picking up on CAD and surface cold. But just a quick glance at the MOS guidance and it still looks a bit warmer than I expected. We'll see, I think this weekend is a "nuisance" but still dangerous, ice event. Maybe 0.1-0.2" accretion, which is still dangerous like I said. But the real ice events come Tuesday and Friday IMO.

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1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Which model would handle the current snowpack's effect on 10m temps best? The 3k NAM? Or does no model account for that?

I always wonder how much the models account for urban heat islands. I live in Northeast so we are a little colder than like center city etc. I’ve seen ice accru on my sidewalks and backstreets before but not enough to make it dangerous. I won’t be driving but any frozen precip is fun to track. Wonder if it starts as some sleet here

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17 minutes ago, JTA66 said:

Right. I'm not used to seeing the NAM dry and it's been consistent with that look. Then you have the HRRR. Waiting on the RGEM.

Looks like precip gets up to SE PA latitude and pretty much slides off to the ENE. Right now the radar is looking juicy enough south of here.

.1" of ice will be enough to make things slick, plus here it will do a number on the bamboo forest. I'd much prefer sleet, or snow obviously.

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5 minutes ago, KamuSnow said:

Looks like precip gets up to SE PA latitude and pretty much slides off to the ENE. Right now the radar is looking juicy enough south of here.

.1" of ice will be enough to make things slick, plus here it will do a number on the bamboo forest. I'd much prefer sleet, or snow obviously.

Just looking at the radar, Central Del and a little further N will be alright but SE PA looks very iffy and the burbs may get whiffed and have a cloudy day w/temps in the 20s...

del.jpg

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15 minutes ago, Birds~69 said:

The last 2 hours the radar has blossomed and moving in our favor. Definitely feels and looks like precip...sitting at 26F. 

im.jpg

HRRR still shows us getting something up our way. Think I’ll just watch the radar instead of the models.

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8 minutes ago, JTA66 said:

Any reports from Kamuland? He looks to be in a good spot for this.

Yeah, lol. I was just gathering data to post. Temp. here is 31F, dp all the way down at 12, so I was thinking virga for a while. However, we're actually getting very light rain with a few small sleet pellets mixed in. Wtf, lol, I was hoping for some solid precip to start at least. Guess that warm air aloft is real.

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1 minute ago, Birds~69 said:

Who cares? If you have to travel, use your judgement and make the best decision...

Uhh I care? What kind of question is that. I don't need to go anywhere but the news was saying and people were asking here if the daytime would be OK. The consensus was yes. Can't even predict the weather a day in advance LOL

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3 minutes ago, hurricane1091 said:

Uhh I care? What kind of question is that. I don't need to go anywhere but the news was saying and people were asking here if the daytime would be OK. The consensus was yes. Can't even predict the weather a day in advance LOL

Not to nitpick, but everything I've seen said afternoon/evening...

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3 minutes ago, KamuSnow said:

Not to nitpick, but everything I've seen said afternoon/evening...

People mentioned after 6 on here. They should stick to their day jobs. Freezing rain already falling. No one said 12pm lol lame stream included. Hopefully anyone who took their advice from internet weatherman is safe out there!

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