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February 13-14 Event


The Iceman
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We are now inside 5 days on this threat and the global are in agreement that some kind of winter event will effect the region this weekend. The gfs hangs on to the primary way too long imo and as a result the area turns to rain but I think with the Arctic air nearby, this is one that has all the makings of a major sleet/ice storm. Here's the 12z cmc. And there is also likely a decent 2-4" thump of snow before the changeover. The ICON also is showing a significant event for 95 n and W. Overall with the snowpack and Arctic air along with the banana high in canada, this one has major cad potential. Discuss here :)

 

gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_19.png

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5 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

Here is the ICON for saturday night, it doesn't do the best with thermals but good to see it kill the primary faster like the cmc:

 

icon_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_37.png

Some storms have trended north and some south this winter. So we’ll see. I am not a fan of ice like I am snow, so hope the ICON is right.

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Hello! Is anyone seeing the coastal low exploding off the southern carolinas in the past 2 hours? I don’t recall hearing any mention of that being even a possibility in any forecast scenarios discussed from nws, accu, bernie rayno, etc... i just looked for some of the early week model runs to see if any predicted a low forming and found one, but apparently it was quickly disregarded as nonsense. Im in the south central pa area where they said 36 hrs ago 10-15”, then yesterday it went from 4-8 to 1-3 in 2 hrs, to Bernie rayno saying a dusting or nothing because storm would stay south on or just across the mason dixon.

 

its been snowing steady here since 7:45pm with no mixing. Radar shows heavy snow continues throughout pa moving slightly ENE. Now the dusting nothingburger they said to expect is modified to 3-6” in the past hour. Any thoughts? 10-15 changed to nothing, changed to 3-6, coastal low forms that was never mentioned, radar & satellite imagery plus real time observations dont line up with the forecast? Id appreciate another pair of eyes and opinions. Maybe im missing something? Thanks!

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This is one of those times I have no idea what's going to happen. I have plans in Wallingford tomorrow pm. The NAMs don't look too threatening, the RGEM has me wondering if I should reschedule (and what Ralph said above about the HRRR at range). Think I'll be watching the radar tomorrow and make a game time decision.

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Sleeper event wrt wkend storm. I told my friend who was supposed to visit this weekend to reschedule. RPM suggests there could be problems and I buy it. Don't think it'll be major, but .1" seems likely...I'd give it 70% odds. With cold sfc temps, that as iceman correctly notes have been cold for awhile, and existing snowpack, this is bad news. You don't need much freezing rain to make travel dangerous. The most deadly winter wx events are the minor ones. Advisory snows etc. People tend to go faster and pay less attention, encounter slick spots they don't see, and then, wham. Bigger events generally cause more people to hunker down and stay home. You don't need 1994 to make for a bad day. 

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I'm not sure how widespread the more significant icing will be in this region, but where there is will be a smaller geographical stripe of pure ice during this fz drizzle and light fz showers it will certainly be quote impacted. Could easily see a stripe of .3" or slightly more accretion in the region. Looks bad for areas just SW of our region also. As others have said, this could certainly come as a surprise to some when they wake up Sunday AM and look outside.

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Keep in mind, I know up my way there is still a solid and sometimes deep snowpack that is still fresh (snow on snow on snow). This is massive insulation at the ground and could make all the difference when talking a matter of 1 or 2 degrees at the surface and time need to scour out the colder surface. It certainly isn't melting much today. 27F

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1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

I think temps will be .lower than progged ie marginal areas such as ours may remain quite cold at the surface. The question really is how much precip. Wont take much.

Not at all.

I've been sitting at 27/28F today after a cold night / overcast with a solid snowpack for quite a while. The ground must be cold AF... 

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