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Feb 9th Snow Obs/Nowcast


The 4 Seasons
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19 minutes ago, Greg said:

 The rain lasted slightly longer that just a few minutes more like a good 30 minutes or so. Some of you seem to always increase the amounts with the retelling of that storm over time but with MYV and ACK at about 24". It's a general 24 - 30"+. Yes, I know Sagamore stated they got 36" but with Sandwich at 24" right next to it. So I guess to each his own.

I think we are splitting hairs, but to say 30 minutes of mixing (which I never observed in the mid-cape) met the criteria that was clearly being predicted is a stretch. Given it was a long duration 36 hour storm, 30 minutes of mixing vs. the predicated 50% storm duration is the opposite of "nailing" the forecast. If memory serves right ratios were also solid, and no where near the 8:1 or 10:1 one would expect if temps were as high as you believe they were.

Also I would consider the Cape a different region all together when compared to MV and ACK. That's why they call it Cape Cod & the Islands ;). I don't think those locations are relevant to the conversation given they are very much their own climates due the ocean, but if those spots did receive 24", there's no way the Cape received less given a gradient to 36 in the Plymouth area.

HRRR really cutting back QPF amounts this afternoon though, looks like SNE will be a pretty tough call.

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4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I see a high of 31 at Chatham. I doubt they had rain in FMH.

I remember the report quite vividly, Maybe it was just a quick mix at the very onset or something along those lines. Not taking any snow away from them down there. Just that some recollection's are different than others. It's a little like how Will can remember snowstorms to a "tee" with many others including my self, having to look up.

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24 minutes ago, Greg said:

 The rain lasted slightly longer that just a few minutes more like a good 30 minutes or so. Some of you seem to always increase the amounts with the retelling of that storm over time but with MYV and ACK at about 24". It's a general 24 - 30"+. Yes, I know Sagamore stated they got 36" but with Sandwich at 24" right next to it. So I guess to each his own.

Edit: I was thinking of Sagamore..Sandwich NWS employee reported ~28"

I measured 28" in Wareham..but again..that was just a final depth measurement. 

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13 minutes ago, Greg said:

I remember the report quite vividly, Maybe it was just a quick mix at the very onset or something along those lines. Not taking any snow away from them down there. Just that some recollection's are different than others. It's a little like how Will can remember snowstorms to a "tee" with many others including my self, having to look up.

 

METAR KFMH 220755Z 28008KT 15SM BKN015 M20/M23 A3026 RMK SLP253      RCRNR 
METAR KFMH 220855Z 30006KT 10SM -SN BKN014 M20/M23 A3025 RMK SLP250      50003 RCRNR 
METAR KFMH 220955Z VRB02KT 10SM -SN BKN011 M21/M23 A3025 RMK SLP250      RCRNR 
METAR KFMH 221155Z 29002KT 10SM SCT011 M21/M22 A3026 RMK SLP253 60000      4/003 53003 RCRNR 
METAR KFMH 221255Z 25004KT 7SM FEW011 SCT250 M20/M21 A3026 RMK SLP253      RCRNR 
METAR KFMH 221355Z 25003KT 7SM FEW011 BKN250 M17/M19 A3025 RMK SLP250      RCRNR 
METAR KFMH 221455Z 00000KT 7SM FEW015 BKN250 M14/M18 A3024 RMK SLP245      60000 58007 RCRNR 
METAR KFMH 221555Z 00000KT 7SM FEW015 SCT160 OVC250 M10/M14 A3022 RMK      SLP238 RCRNR 
METAR KFMH 221655Z VRB03KT 10SM SCT025 BKN250 M07/M12 A3018 RMK SLP224      RCRNR 
METAR KFMH 221755Z 11007KT 10SM SCT025 SCT100 OVC200 M07/M11 A3014 RMK      SLP210 60000 58034 RCRNR 
METAR KFMH 221855Z 09010KT 10SM BKN021 BKN120 OVC200 M07/M10 A3010 RMK      SLP197 RCRNR 
METAR KFMH 221955Z 09005KT 10SM BKN025 BKN100 OVC200 M06/M10 A3008 RMK      SLP189 RCRNR 
METAR KFMH 222055Z 05004KT 7SM -SN SCT020 BKN030 OVC100 M06/M09 A3009      RMK SLP192 60000 55017 RCRNR 
METAR KFMH 222155Z 05011KT 1SM -SN BR SCT000 BKN008 OVC017 M06/M08 A3002      RMK SN SCT000 PRESFR SLP168 RCRNR 
METAR KFMH 222255Z 04009KT 2SM -SN BR BKN008 OVC014 M06/M08 A2997 RMK      SLP151 RCRNR 
METAR KFMH 222355Z 06010KT 1 1/2SM -SN BR BKN008 OVC014 M06/M07 A2990      RMK PRESFR SLP151 60004 4/003 57064 RCRNR 
METAR KFMH 230055Z 07013G22KT 1 1/2SM -SN BR BKN008 OVC018 M04/M05 A2985      RMK SLP110 RCRNR 
METAR KFMH 230155Z 05013G24KT 3/4SM -SN BR SCT003 BKN008 OVC015 M03/M04      A2979 RMK PRESFR SLP128 SNINCR 1/4 RCRNR 
METAR KFMH 230255Z 05012G22KT 1/2SM SN BR BKN003 OVC008 M03/M04 A2974      RMK SLP073 SNINCR 2/6 60022 57054 RCRNR 
SPECI KFMH 230314Z 05017G24KT 1/4SM +SN FZFG VV002 M03/M04 A2972 RMK      RCRNR 
METAR KFMH 230355Z 05015G22KT 1/4SM +SN FZFG VV002 M03/M04 A2969 RMK      SLP056 SNINCR 2/8 RCRNR 
METAR KFMH 230455Z 04014G23KT 1/4SM +SN FZFG VV002 M03/M04 A2963 RMK      PRESFR SLP036 SNINCR 2/10 RCRNR 
METAR KFMH 230555Z 04018G25KT 1/4SM +SN FZFG VV002 M02/M03 A2954 RMK PK      WND 04027/44 PRESFR SLP006 SNINCR 2/12 60061 4/012 57068      RCRNR 
METAR KFMH 230655Z 03020G28KT 1/4SM +SN FZFG VV002 M02/M03 A2949 RMK PK      WND 03029/39 SLP988 SNINCR 2/14 RCRNR 
METAR KFMH 230755Z 03023G29KT 1/4SM +SN FZFG VV001 M01/M02 A2940 RMK PK      WND 02032/37 PRESFR SLP958 SNINCR 2/16 RCRNR 
METAR KFMH 230855Z 01021G35KT 1/4SM +SNBLSN FZFG VV001 M02/M02 A2938 RMK      PRESFR SLP951 SNINCR 2/18 60055 57054 RCRNR 
METAR KFMH 230955Z 01025G38KT 1/2SM SN BLSN FZFG VV001 M02/M02 A2933 RMK      SLP934 SNINCR 1/19 RCRNR 
METAR KFMH 231055Z 01026G40KT 1/4SM +SN BLSN FZFG VV001 M02/M03 A2933      RMK PK WND 36042/33 SLP934 RCRNR 
METAR KFMH 231155Z 01024G45KT 1/4SM +SN BLSN FZFG VV001 M03/M03 A2933      RMK VIS 0V1/2 SLP934 SNINCR 1/21 60075 70140 4/021 56017      RCRNR 
METAR KFMH 231255Z 36032G48KT 1/8SM +SN BLSN FZFG VV001 M03/M03 A2932      RMK VIS 0V1/2 SLP930 RCRNR 
METAR KFMH 231355Z 35030G46KT 1/8SM +SN BLSN FZFG VV001 M04/M04 A2932      RMK PK WND 35053/09 VIS 0V1/2 SLP930 RCRNR 
METAR KFMH 231455Z 35033G48KT 1/8SM +SN BLSN FZFG VV001 M04/M05 A2932      RMK PK WND 34054/14 VIS 0V1/2 SLP930 60011 56003 RCRNR 
METAR KFMH 231555Z 35031G44KT 1/8SM +SN BLSN FZFG VV001 M06/M07 A2937      RMK PK WND 35047/13 VIS 0V1/2 SLP947 RCRNR 
METAR KFMH 231655Z 34029G43KT 1/8SM +SN BLSN FZFG VV001 M07/M08 A2939      RMK PK WND 35049/42 VIS 0V1/2 SLP955 RCRNR 
METAR KFMH 231755Z 33030G41KT 1/8SM +SN BLSN FZFG VV001 M09/M09 A2943      RMK PK WND 35049/06 VIS 0V1/2 SLP969 60020 4/025 52037      RCRNR 
METAR KFMH 231855Z 32027G42KT 1/8SM +SN BLSN FZFG VV001 M09/M09 A2945      RMK PK WND 34046/08 VIS 0V1/2 SLP976 RCRNR 
METAR KFMH 231955Z 32030G36KT 1/4SM +SN BLSN FZFG VV001 M11/M11 A2950      RMK PK WND 34044/03 SLP993 RCRNR 
METAR KFMH 232055Z 32032G45KT 1/4SM +SN BLSN FZFG VV001 M11/M11 A2955      RMK SLP011 60007 52041 RCRNR 
METAR KFMH 232155Z 32028G39KT 1/4SM +SN BLSN FZFG VV001 M11/M11 A2961      RMK SLP030 RCRNR 
METAR KFMH 232255Z 31022G34KT 1/2SM SN BLSN FZFG VV002 M11/M11 A2965 RMK      PK WND 32039/26 SLP044 RCRNR 
METAR KFMH 232355Z 31023G30KT 1/2SM SN BLSN FZFG VV002 M11/M11 A2970 RMK      PK WND 31037/01 SLP061 60014 4/029 52051 RCRNR 
METAR KFMH 240055Z 31023G33KT 1 1/2SM -SN BLSN BR BKN003 BKN024 M11/M11      A2972 RMK SLP067 RCRNR 
METAR KFMH 240155Z 33019G30KT 1SM -SN BLSN BR SCT003 BKN005 OVC030      M13/M13 A2975 RMK SLP078 RCRNR 
METAR KFMH 240255Z 31018G28KT 6SM BLSN BR SCT003 SCT015 BKN030 M14/M14      A2976 RMK SLP081 60001 52020 RCRNR 
METAR KFMH 240355Z 30018KT 6SM BLSN BR FEW003 SCT015 BKN030 M15/M15      A2979 RMK SLP091 RCRNR 
METAR KFMH 240455Z 30016G25KT 10SM SCT015 BKN030 M16/M16 A2981 RMK      SLP099 RCRNR 
METAR KFMH 240555Z 32017KT 10SM SCT015 BKN030 M16/M17 A2982 RMK SLP099      60001 4/029 52020 RCRNR 
METAR KFMH 240655Z 29014KT 10SM FEW015 SCT030 M17/M17 A2984 RMK SLP109      RCRNR 
METAR KFMH 240755Z 29017KT 10SM FEW015 SCT030 M18/M18 A2987 RMK SLP120      RCRNR 

 

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15 minutes ago, CCHurricane said:

I think we are splitting hairs, but to say 30 minutes of mixing (which I never observed in the mid-cape) met the criteria that was clearly being predicted is a stretch. Given it was a long duration 36 hour storm, 30 minutes of mixing vs. the predicated 50% storm duration is the opposite of "nailing" the forecast. If memory serves right ratios were also solid, and no where near the 8:1 or 10:1 one would expect if temps were as high as you believe they were.

Also I would consider the Cape a different region all together when compared to MV and ACK. Not sure why those locations are relevant to the conversation given they are very much their own climates due the ocean.

HRRR really cutting back QPF amounts this afternoon though, looks like SNE will be a pretty tough call.

MYV and ACK are always included when talking about the Cape, always where. By the way, I never gave any indications depending on which forecasters you watched at the time, how correct or incorrect they where in their forecast. Personally, I say the Mets where off and the Cape and joined in the fun of getting blasted. This was more like a 24 Hour storm for many. But down by the Cape it appeared that ocean effect snow formed off the Bay where for about 12 more hours snow fell. This may be why there is a difference in the totals. It appears some Coops counted the 24 hour storm as one separate piece and the lingering ocean effect as another separate piece while other spotters just lumped  together the two as one long 36 hour duration storm. That may be where the disconnect/misunderstanding may be.

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Just now, Greg said:

MYV and ACK are included as the Cape, always where. By the way, I never gave any indications depending on which forecasters you watched at the time, how correct or incorrect they where in their forecast. Personally, I say the Mets where off and the Cape and joined in the fun of getting blasted. This was more like a 24 Hour storm for many. But down by the Cape it appeared that ocean effect snow formed off the Bay where for about 12 more hours snow fell. This may be why there is a difference in the totals. It appears some Coops counted the 24 hour storm as one separate piece and the lingering ocean effect as another separate piece while other spotters just lumped  together the two as one long 36 hour duration storm. That may be where the disconnect/misunderstanding may be.

There was def. some OES assist...especially near the upper cape.

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3 minutes ago, Greg said:

MYV and ACK are always included when talking about the Cape, always where. By the way, I never gave any indications depending on which forecasters you watched at the time, how correct or incorrect they where in their forecast. Personally, I say the Mets where off and the Cape and joined in the fun of getting blasted. This was more like a 24 Hour storm for many. But down by the Cape it appeared that ocean effect snow formed off the Bay where for about 12 more hours snow fell. This may be why there is a difference in the totals. It appears some Coops counted the 24 hour storm as one separate piece and the lingering ocean effect as another separate piece while other spotters just lumped  together the two as one long 36 hour duration storm. That may be where the disconnect/misunderstanding may be.

Dangerous to lump in ACK with Cape Cod when it comes to winter weather. Proceed at your own peril!

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This 'critter' is signaled to flash up in intensity as it exits -

Am aware some higher res. short lead models vacate on that thinking some, but I'm not sure the non-hydrostatic nature of those physics are really seeing a synoptic ...albeit subtle WAA pulse potential from the integrated flow - those sort of models are better for meso shit.

The problem also is that we are presently trying to saturate a 23 F / 15 F -type temp/ dp spread here between the Pike and Rt poop ... and since this has virtually no way/means to remove that slab of arctic density ... we're probably maximizing the WB effects and will have an event temp around 20 de-popsicle headache F, which means ... backyard ratios are probably > even 15:1 ...     .3" ends up being close to 6" ...etc..etc.. stack height.

I'm sure others have mentioned these event idiosyncrasies - ... but adding to all that, if it flares even a little like some of the QPF products indicate, this thing bootlegs to a warning -

...unfortunately, there is possibility that does not happen - yup.  But, this strikes me as a limitation ( sort of ..) with the state of the art of the technology. It's an amazing spectrum of utilities compared to 30 years ago .. but despite any conceits, they still do not offer a line of sight that discretely - or discrete enough. 

So... it is what it is... and it's two systems back-to-back where they have to gotta kinda issue because they are handcuffed to notifying the public anyway  

 

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Just now, mahk_webstah said:

I will say there is a nice band moving from NY and VT across CNH, just scraping me a bit.  That looks substantial and I don't it was forecast.  Am I wrong?

Some of the models had decent lift in the DGZ up here. I posted the 3k NAM last night. The larger growth may have more reflectivity to it. We'll probably get less liquid than SNE, but maybe we can fluff it out a bit more.

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7 minutes ago, dendrite said:

 


METAR KFMH 220755Z 28008KT 15SM BKN015 M20/M23 A3026 RMK SLP253      RCRNR 
METAR KFMH 220855Z 30006KT 10SM -SN BKN014 M20/M23 A3025 RMK SLP250      50003 RCRNR 
METAR KFMH 220955Z VRB02KT 10SM -SN BKN011 M21/M23 A3025 RMK SLP250      RCRNR 
METAR KFMH 221155Z 29002KT 10SM SCT011 M21/M22 A3026 RMK SLP253 60000      4/003 53003 RCRNR 
METAR KFMH 221255Z 25004KT 7SM FEW011 SCT250 M20/M21 A3026 RMK SLP253      RCRNR 
METAR KFMH 221355Z 25003KT 7SM FEW011 BKN250 M17/M19 A3025 RMK SLP250      RCRNR 
METAR KFMH 221455Z 00000KT 7SM FEW015 BKN250 M14/M18 A3024 RMK SLP245      60000 58007 RCRNR 
METAR KFMH 221555Z 00000KT 7SM FEW015 SCT160 OVC250 M10/M14 A3022 RMK      SLP238 RCRNR 
METAR KFMH 221655Z VRB03KT 10SM SCT025 BKN250 M07/M12 A3018 RMK SLP224      RCRNR 
METAR KFMH 221755Z 11007KT 10SM SCT025 SCT100 OVC200 M07/M11 A3014 RMK      SLP210 60000 58034 RCRNR 
METAR KFMH 221855Z 09010KT 10SM BKN021 BKN120 OVC200 M07/M10 A3010 RMK      SLP197 RCRNR 
METAR KFMH 221955Z 09005KT 10SM BKN025 BKN100 OVC200 M06/M10 A3008 RMK      SLP189 RCRNR 
METAR KFMH 222055Z 05004KT 7SM -SN SCT020 BKN030 OVC100 M06/M09 A3009      RMK SLP192 60000 55017 RCRNR 
METAR KFMH 222155Z 05011KT 1SM -SN BR SCT000 BKN008 OVC017 M06/M08 A3002      RMK SN SCT000 PRESFR SLP168 RCRNR 
METAR KFMH 222255Z 04009KT 2SM -SN BR BKN008 OVC014 M06/M08 A2997 RMK      SLP151 RCRNR 
METAR KFMH 222355Z 06010KT 1 1/2SM -SN BR BKN008 OVC014 M06/M07 A2990      RMK PRESFR SLP151 60004 4/003 57064 RCRNR 
METAR KFMH 230055Z 07013G22KT 1 1/2SM -SN BR BKN008 OVC018 M04/M05 A2985      RMK SLP110 RCRNR 
METAR KFMH 230155Z 05013G24KT 3/4SM -SN BR SCT003 BKN008 OVC015 M03/M04      A2979 RMK PRESFR SLP128 SNINCR 1/4 RCRNR 
METAR KFMH 230255Z 05012G22KT 1/2SM SN BR BKN003 OVC008 M03/M04 A2974      RMK SLP073 SNINCR 2/6 60022 57054 RCRNR 
SPECI KFMH 230314Z 05017G24KT 1/4SM +SN FZFG VV002 M03/M04 A2972 RMK      RCRNR 
METAR KFMH 230355Z 05015G22KT 1/4SM +SN FZFG VV002 M03/M04 A2969 RMK      SLP056 SNINCR 2/8 RCRNR 
METAR KFMH 230455Z 04014G23KT 1/4SM +SN FZFG VV002 M03/M04 A2963 RMK      PRESFR SLP036 SNINCR 2/10 RCRNR 
METAR KFMH 230555Z 04018G25KT 1/4SM +SN FZFG VV002 M02/M03 A2954 RMK PK      WND 04027/44 PRESFR SLP006 SNINCR 2/12 60061 4/012 57068      RCRNR 
METAR KFMH 230655Z 03020G28KT 1/4SM +SN FZFG VV002 M02/M03 A2949 RMK PK      WND 03029/39 SLP988 SNINCR 2/14 RCRNR 
METAR KFMH 230755Z 03023G29KT 1/4SM +SN FZFG VV001 M01/M02 A2940 RMK PK      WND 02032/37 PRESFR SLP958 SNINCR 2/16 RCRNR 
METAR KFMH 230855Z 01021G35KT 1/4SM +SNBLSN FZFG VV001 M02/M02 A2938 RMK      PRESFR SLP951 SNINCR 2/18 60055 57054 RCRNR 
METAR KFMH 230955Z 01025G38KT 1/2SM SN BLSN FZFG VV001 M02/M02 A2933 RMK      SLP934 SNINCR 1/19 RCRNR 
METAR KFMH 231055Z 01026G40KT 1/4SM +SN BLSN FZFG VV001 M02/M03 A2933      RMK PK WND 36042/33 SLP934 RCRNR 
METAR KFMH 231155Z 01024G45KT 1/4SM +SN BLSN FZFG VV001 M03/M03 A2933      RMK VIS 0V1/2 SLP934 SNINCR 1/21 60075 70140 4/021 56017      RCRNR 
METAR KFMH 231255Z 36032G48KT 1/8SM +SN BLSN FZFG VV001 M03/M03 A2932      RMK VIS 0V1/2 SLP930 RCRNR 
METAR KFMH 231355Z 35030G46KT 1/8SM +SN BLSN FZFG VV001 M04/M04 A2932      RMK PK WND 35053/09 VIS 0V1/2 SLP930 RCRNR 
METAR KFMH 231455Z 35033G48KT 1/8SM +SN BLSN FZFG VV001 M04/M05 A2932      RMK PK WND 34054/14 VIS 0V1/2 SLP930 60011 56003 RCRNR 
METAR KFMH 231555Z 35031G44KT 1/8SM +SN BLSN FZFG VV001 M06/M07 A2937      RMK PK WND 35047/13 VIS 0V1/2 SLP947 RCRNR 
METAR KFMH 231655Z 34029G43KT 1/8SM +SN BLSN FZFG VV001 M07/M08 A2939      RMK PK WND 35049/42 VIS 0V1/2 SLP955 RCRNR 
METAR KFMH 231755Z 33030G41KT 1/8SM +SN BLSN FZFG VV001 M09/M09 A2943      RMK PK WND 35049/06 VIS 0V1/2 SLP969 60020 4/025 52037      RCRNR 
METAR KFMH 231855Z 32027G42KT 1/8SM +SN BLSN FZFG VV001 M09/M09 A2945      RMK PK WND 34046/08 VIS 0V1/2 SLP976 RCRNR 
METAR KFMH 231955Z 32030G36KT 1/4SM +SN BLSN FZFG VV001 M11/M11 A2950      RMK PK WND 34044/03 SLP993 RCRNR 
METAR KFMH 232055Z 32032G45KT 1/4SM +SN BLSN FZFG VV001 M11/M11 A2955      RMK SLP011 60007 52041 RCRNR 
METAR KFMH 232155Z 32028G39KT 1/4SM +SN BLSN FZFG VV001 M11/M11 A2961      RMK SLP030 RCRNR 
METAR KFMH 232255Z 31022G34KT 1/2SM SN BLSN FZFG VV002 M11/M11 A2965 RMK      PK WND 32039/26 SLP044 RCRNR 
METAR KFMH 232355Z 31023G30KT 1/2SM SN BLSN FZFG VV002 M11/M11 A2970 RMK      PK WND 31037/01 SLP061 60014 4/029 52051 RCRNR 
METAR KFMH 240055Z 31023G33KT 1 1/2SM -SN BLSN BR BKN003 BKN024 M11/M11      A2972 RMK SLP067 RCRNR 
METAR KFMH 240155Z 33019G30KT 1SM -SN BLSN BR SCT003 BKN005 OVC030      M13/M13 A2975 RMK SLP078 RCRNR 
METAR KFMH 240255Z 31018G28KT 6SM BLSN BR SCT003 SCT015 BKN030 M14/M14      A2976 RMK SLP081 60001 52020 RCRNR 
METAR KFMH 240355Z 30018KT 6SM BLSN BR FEW003 SCT015 BKN030 M15/M15      A2979 RMK SLP091 RCRNR 
METAR KFMH 240455Z 30016G25KT 10SM SCT015 BKN030 M16/M16 A2981 RMK      SLP099 RCRNR 
METAR KFMH 240555Z 32017KT 10SM SCT015 BKN030 M16/M17 A2982 RMK SLP099      60001 4/029 52020 RCRNR 
METAR KFMH 240655Z 29014KT 10SM FEW015 SCT030 M17/M17 A2984 RMK SLP109      RCRNR 
METAR KFMH 240755Z 29017KT 10SM FEW015 SCT030 M18/M18 A2987 RMK SLP120      RCRNR 

 

Shannon hoon, great talent gone too soon

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