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February 10-12, 2021 Winter Event


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3 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said:

Tbh I think the models are significantly divergent. Maybe I’m wrong though. But to me the differences are utterly enormous given our timeframe. The mesos and globals are at serious odds with each other, and there are differences within THOSE groups too. 

You have to think about what kind of event this is. Think about a stalled front in spring with gulf moisture getting drawn in and bumping up against it. It's very hard for models to get all the little nuances right. This applies to any season as these types of precipitation events are common. Mostly in the spring. Location, timing, and amounts are always uncertain. That's why I keep saying to just worry about your yard staying in the general idea. Which all of ours are. It's a chips fall kind of deal. 

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57 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

This is all because we are pushing for a level of detail at ranges that NWP is not capable of giving yet.  It is getting MUCH better.  Day 5 forecasts are more accurate then day 3 was not that long ago.  But when I first started doing this no one took day 5 or even day 3 seriously in terms of gleaning very meso scale specific details.  Trying to nail the exact rain snow line to within 20 miles, or the exact location of the northern fringe of precip with a synoptic wave.  But now we start trying to do that at day 5 or even longer range.  That is crazy and while the guidance has gotten better, not at the same rate as our ridiculous expectations.  

We don’t have ridiculous expectations. We do seek competency.  You are absolutely right and glad to hear you say it-The Models  Try To Do Too Much.

So, do less  or do different 

Want nice atmosphere  when Obs time starts so will leave it at that. But, when things slow down will release a thread with detailed, rational and verified wholesale different method of modeling. I don’t just bitch, I offer suggestions and possible solutions. 

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7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

You have to think about what kind of event this is. Think about a stalled front in spring with gulf moisture getting drawn in and bumping up against it. It's very hard for models to get all the little nuances right. This applies to any season as these types of precipitation events are common. Mostly in the spring. Location, timing, and amounts are always uncertain. That's why I keep saying to just worry about your yard staying in the general idea. Which all of ours are. It's a chips fall kind of deal. 

No I get it. But I’m not talking about my backyard. I still find it fascinating that this is so difficult for us given how much progress we’ve made. And this of course comes from my own ignorance regarding the backend of how these models function. 
 

edit also that our professional Mets can make such good calls given these divergences. CWG was fantastic for Sunday. 

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3 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

We don’t have ridiculous expectations. We do seek competency.  You are absolutely right and glad to hear you say it-The Models  Try To Do Too Much.

That's not what he's saying at all. The entire forecasting field would be lost beyond a few days without them. It's hobbiests that expect waaaay too much out of them. They are tools. And damn good ones. 

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I’m not the biggest DT fan. Dude can be a jerk. However for Thursday into Friday (second wave) only the gfs doesn’t have RVA and suburbs with the most snow. Currently. 10”??? Probably too much- but even if you drop 30-40% off that, then you also have to do that to the entire map. Again since there were like 10 posts about his map, I wanted to weigh in also. 

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