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February 10-12, 2021 Winter Event


MN Transplant
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3 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

It's pretty bad brother. We get a half inch of snow while Frederick gets 5.

You aren’t looking at all of it. The 3k soundings are below freezing all the way down. The 12k is barely above around 800. It’s wet. I’ll take my chances.

And don’t forget that it’s the NAM. The model that gave us 3-4” a couple of weeks ago and it rained.

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Just now, wxtrix said:

there’s nowhere to go but up! :drunk:

I know. Which is what I said earlier about LWX having advisories instead of warnings. They always downgrade once the storm gets going, maybe this time they will upgrade. A weenie can hope. 

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1 minute ago, snowfan said:

Lol. Been awhile since we've seen one of those bad maps :)

 

3 minutes ago, mappy said:

lol some bad collaborating going on between offices

i'm going to hug state college's totals and put myself in the 4-6 range. 

Et3t3geXEAE_yW0.png

Looks pretty obvious which office has left the reservation 

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1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Not knocking it’s qpf. I like that too. But the precip types? If it’s right every NWS office around is wrong

Oh. I haven't actually looked at the model, just what was posted here. I don't pay attention to the precip types, its very generalized. Gotta look at soundings for any one location to really know what the type is. Up here, for me at least, it will be all snow. 

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10 minutes ago, high risk said:

     Really need to focus on the NAM nest over the parent here.     We've seen the parent NAM be too wet in the short range for several events now, and it sure seems that way again.  The nest looks far more reasonable.    The nest also keeps DC and areas along and south of Route 50 as a mix going to rain, and that makes sense to me again (with the parent slightly further south with the rain-snow line).

3K is still pretty wet for Baltimore though so Ill take it lol

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2 minutes ago, mappy said:

Oh. I haven't actually looked at the model, just what was posted here. I don't pay attention to the precip types, its very generalized. Gotta look at soundings for any one location to really know what the type is. Up here, for me at least, it will be all snow. 

Soundings. Exactly. Not model maps

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4 hours ago, CAPE said:

Love the 3km NAM. Still time for it to tick north a tad for wave 2.

For wave 2 more then a north trend from the boundary wave what I’m curious is if the precip associated with the upper level dynamics which actually track right over is juiced up some. Wouldn’t take much because ratios would be very high under that.  Juice that up to like .25 qpf and everyone gets a nice little 3-4” at the end. 

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8 minutes ago, wxtrix said:

there’s nowhere to go but up! :drunk:

 

10 minutes ago, mappy said:

lol some bad collaborating going on between offices

i'm going to hug state college's totals and put myself in the 4-6 range. 

Et3t3geXEAE_yW0.png

I have the up most respect for what the professionals do.  

I do think LWX might a little low with most guidance pointing to a .3 to .6 qpf snow event. Especially in Northern MD.

I agree with you. It seems we do better whem LWX is playing catch up and adjusting upward as the event nears.

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5 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

 

I have the up most respect for what the professionals do.  

I do think LWX might a little low with most guidance pointing to a .3 to .6 qpf snow event. Especially in Northern MD.

I agree with you. It seems we do better whem LWX is playing catch up and adjusting upward as the event nears.

I was surprised this morning at how conservative LWX went with their overnight package, after some bullish hints from their office yesterday.  That said, the point forecast for my area has under 0.5" today, 2-4" tonight and under 1 inch tomorrow, suggestive of more snow than the 1-3 the WWA calls for.

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