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February 10-12, 2021 Winter Event


MN Transplant
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Just now, Baltimorewx said:

Hopefully this isn’t the case of the NAM having that one run that’s just too juiced close in. But that’s at least encouraging for Baltimore. Stays all snow up here at least 

Yeah important to remember that the NAM was holding on to a better storm for us just this past weekend for longer than other models.

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Just now, stormtracker said:

That warm nose is becoming more pronounced with the NAM.  We get a step forward with more QPF and then 2 steps back with a stubborn warm nose on this model. 

Yeah, if I had to choose I’d take the .25 QPF on the euro at 30 degrees over the 0.8 on the NAM of sleet/white rain for round 1.

At 42 wave 2 is south, maybe it can make up some ground though. 

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1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

That warm nose is becoming more pronounced with the NAM.  We get a step forward with more QPF and then 2 steps back with a stubborn warm nose on this model. 

Yeah, it's been really persistent about that for awhile now.  I hope that's not necessarily correlated with the now notably higher QPF amounts (for first wave)...i.e., we can only get higher precip if we get the mix around this area.

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6 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

That warm nose is becoming more pronounced with the NAM.  We get a step forward with more QPF and then 2 steps back with a stubborn warm nose on this model. 

It's a pretty thin and high up layer...so at least when it does mix its probably sleet/snow mix.  That looks like several inches of snow and a significant sleet mixed in there also...which can be fun.  It's better then a couple inches of snow and then dry slot or freezing rain imo.  There is also the chance the NAM is being to aggressive with that but just saying I don't think the NAM is a complete disaster for DC but if it can be just 1 degree too warm in the mid layers...youre looking at a great THUMP.  

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