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February 10-12, 2021 Winter Event


MN Transplant
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3 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

it's also substantially better with the 2nd wave. Probably not worth much because well yunno (it's the icon), but this looks pretty significant. 

icon-all-ma-total_precip_inch-3142000.thumb.png.d11682fd6f0869e247b3e2f820d42b12.png

Yes nice to see but damn that precip cutoff from south Baltimore to the PA line lol...gona be tough to trust the modeling on the heavier precip cutoff areas

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Just now, WinterWxLuvr said:

Ok who wants to jump on the RGEM train again?

Totally didn't give Baltimore 30 inches shortly before our 31st-33rd storm. Nope. Didn't happen. Slanderous. 

In all seriousness though, my optimistic side tells me there's at least a little something to this. Like I said earlier, NAM has shifted north the past 24 hours in some respects, it's just gotten drier too. HRRR at 18z went north and so did the ICON, and now the RGEM. HRRR looks like north but no more or less dry, while the ICON and RGEM are more what could happen if it goes north and reclaims some of that QPF we've been losing. GFS run will be very interesting.

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1 minute ago, Baltimorewx said:

Yes nice to see but damn that precip cutoff from south Baltimore to the PA line lol...gona be tough to trust the modeling on the heavier precip cutoff areas

 Because those cutoffs ever verify as depicted. No worries - it’ll be 30 miles north at least. It always is. 

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Just now, baltosquid said:

Totally didn't give Baltimore 30 inches shortly before our 31st-33rd storm. Nope. Didn't happen. Slanderous. 

In all seriousness though, my optimistic side tells me there's at least a little something to this. Like I said earlier, NAM has shifted north the past 24 hours in some respects, it's just gotten drier too. HRRR at 18z went north and so did the ICON, and now the RGEM. HRRR looks like north but no more or less dry, while the ICON and RGEM are more what could happen if it goes north and reclaims some of that QPF we've been losing. GFS run will be very interesting.

Hoping to see the GFS / UKMET both come in the same as 12z on their next runs. They’ve been the most consistent. 

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2 minutes ago, ovechkin said:

Not to burst any bubbles and I know no two systems are exactly alike and also better to have something in our corner,  but didn’t the RGEM still spit out ridiculous amounts here for 1/31-2/1 after the varsity level models started cutting back? 

Yes but it also held firm to better totals for 2/5 when DC got totally shafted. I think the take home message is that riding the RGEM is a one way ticket to disappointment. 

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1 minute ago, Wetbulbs88 said:

Yes but it also held firm to better totals for 2/5 when DC got totally shafted. I think the take home message is that riding the RGEM is a one way ticket to disappointment. 

I think it’s the cold bias. For example, it’ll depict 0.6” of QPF as all snow with decent ratios, when in reality it’s more like 0.4” of 10:1 ratio or less snow and some potential mixing. It doesn’t do very well depicting mid levels 

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2 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said:

Really wish the RGEM was rolled out on TT. Anyway, I'm feeling more optimistic, not just because of slight northern ticks in recent modeling, but also because wave one is just looking better. If we could just get something here I'll be happy. 

Yeah, that's just about my take from the 18z suite so far. Yesterday the prevalent trends were that the initial wave was looking substantially weaker, but also at the same time then the secondary wave wasn't a sure thing. We're pretty certain that wave two will paint a stripe of snow somewhere, I guess it just comes down to if those waves overlap each other in location or not. 

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Just now, jayyy said:

I think it’s the cold bias. For example, it’ll depict 0.6” of QPF as all snow with decent ratios, when in reality it’s more like 0.4” of 10:1 ratio or less snow and some potential mixing. It doesn’t do very well depicting mid levels 

Agreed, which is interesting for its range but whatever. I'm not quite as optimistic as you but I'm not close to the ledge here. Think there are plenty of ways we can win here still. Most of them have to do with the modeling just being straight trash this year. In fact sometimes I wonder if it's only gotten worse recently, or if I've just become more critical in my curmudgeonly early 30s. 

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3 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Rgem usually is drier then alot of guidance in my memories except for the recent Hecs misstep.  Right idea- just 150 miles too sw . I like that it moistened up . Good HH trends imo

Agree. Think things actually look a bit better overall for our immediate area despite the painful verbatim depiction of the sharp cutoff seen on OP runs. Just give me a better look - and let climo and seasonal trends take care of the rest 

 

GFS/Ukmet/Para/GEFS/ICON/Rgem/RDPS all bring 0.5”+ QPF to our area. That’s a solid event for us with temps in the upper 20s

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2 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

It almost always happens this way, Ji throws his tantrums and then the next model runs show improvement. It's like magic

It’s like the snow gods purposely bring l storms back north just so Ji can watch everyone around him do better than he does. 

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19 minutes ago, ovechkin said:

Not to burst any bubbles and I know no two systems are exactly alike and also better to have something in our corner,  but didn’t the RGEM still spit out ridiculous amounts here for 1/31-2/1 after the varsity level models started cutting back? 

37 inches....just a little off. 

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