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February 10-12, 2021 Winter Event


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The Euro QPF trend of being eaten away on the northern end has continued on the downward path since at least 12z yesterday, and has taken a huge hit today, though the max stripe in south central VA has remained steady.

For those in the DC area and north, we need a shift by 00z tonight or else we're looking at a pretty mundane event.

Edit: Ninja'd

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18 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Euro's pretty darn dry for both waves.  Everyone north of EZF lost 0.2-0.4" of QPF from 0z.  

 

eta...it's not so much that it's "south", its just weaker with both waves and has a little more arctic air push, particularly for wave 2. Wave 1 is just weak sauce.  Quite a change even from 0z.  

Doesn't this kind of make more sense though for typical "climo" on these kinds of very weak non amplifying WAA waves?  I don't remember too many like this that produced a foot of snow around here like the Euro was tossing out for days.  Maybe I am forgetting some...but these are more typically light to moderate events.  

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8 minutes ago, mattie g said:

The Euro QPF trend of being eaten away on the northern end has continued on the downward path since at least 12z yesterday, and has taken a huge hit today, though the max stripe in south central VA has remained steady.

For those in the DC area and north, we need a shift by 00z tonight or else we're looking at a pretty mundane event.

Edit: Ninja'd

I’ll take whatever we can get in dc. Euro still looks good for at least 3 inches and is the furthest south driest... Hopefully the trend stops at 18z.

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2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Doesn't this kind of make more sense though for typical "climo" on these kinds of very weak non amplifying WAA waves?  I don't remember too many like this that produced a foot of snow around here like the Euro was tossing out for days.  Maybe I am forgetting some...but these are more typically light to moderate events.  

I am no met, but I was mentioning yesterday that these waves, from what I remember, are 3 to 5 inch snows.. the difference here is there were two waves instead of one which was doing better! Jut my 2 cents... This wave still looks like an overperformer for those perfectly set up. Again, not a met.. just going from memory

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10 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

I wouldn't discount the euro, but it's the driest/weakest with these waves relative to the other guidance.  And it hasn't exactly nailed our previous storms, whereas a blended forecast from the guidance has done pretty well.  

You’re the only one talking about blending the model guidance. I agree with you. Considering the precip max in the first wave is certainly not resolved yet, with the GFS, CMC, RGEM, 12Z NAM, even paltry 3K NAM all showing it near or north of DC, I don’t get the “foregone conclusion” feel in here right now. 

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3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Doesn't this kind of make more sense though for typical "climo" on these kinds of very weak non amplifying WAA waves?  I don't remember too many like this that produced a foot of snow around here like the Euro was tossing out for days.  Maybe I am forgetting some...but these are more typically light to moderate events.  

I agree, it makes sense to me...though I was hoping for at least .5-.6 precip. Temps arent an issue really so long as we get decent rates. A 5-9" total event would have been nice. But if EURO and 3K NAM are right its probably just a 1-3" total event in my area and wont pile up impressively without the rates

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10 minutes ago, mattie g said:

The Euro QPF trend of being eaten away on the northern end has continued on the downward path since at least 12z yesterday, and has taken a huge hit today, though the max stripe in south central VA has remained steady.

For those in the DC area and north, we need a shift by 00z tonight or else we're looking at a pretty mundane event.

Im gonna wait for 0z before sweating. it.  Admittedly, it's a troubling development. 

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4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Doesn't this kind of make more sense though for typical "climo" on these kinds of very weak non amplifying WAA waves?  I don't remember too many like this that produced a foot of snow around here like the Euro was tossing out for days.  Maybe I am forgetting some...but these are more typically light to moderate events.  

Yeah, I didn't buy the 12" stuff.  But with a long duration event, a widespread 4-8" seems doable.  Probably this works better in a Nino than a Nina.  Whether it's the Nina or something else, we've definitely struggled to "close" these snow events we've had.  We've lost ground in the last 48-72 hours every time this year.  

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Just now, jaydreb said:

Sounds like too much doom and gloom. Blend these 3 models and most of us are happy, right?

F04DD9BA-8224-41EE-B0B4-0B7424166B6B.png

AB5B561D-FE41-49CF-9F0A-A94296974E5D.png

D588F603-A4CE-4089-AAFE-2FDE206134F9.png

Sure if you wanna forecast based just off Kuchera snow maps...but for instance the EURO only shows .25-.3 preciptation in the Baltimore metro...that aint piling up to 5" over 30 hours like that euro snow maps shows

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2 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said:

Sure if you wanna forecast based just off Kuchera snow maps...but for instance the EURO only shows .25-.3 preciptation in the Baltimore metro...that aint piling up to 5" over 30 hours like that euro snow maps shows

Ok fair point.  Blend these then.  

34F497D0-FE1C-4A5D-9589-49A2E8371B78.png

0CD1C31D-1D8D-4D88-8B65-D4B0B3B0F669.png

347C38A1-30EB-4C77-9438-84FB058DB6D6.png
 

EDIT: Amazing how far apart GFS and Euro are with respect to precip in central VA.  

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2 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said:

Yeah, if the GFS and Canadian are more correct then most of us end up happy. Not trying to be doom and gloom. The euro wasnt encouraging but the rest of the 12z suite wasnt terrible

Yeah, I get it.  We want the Euro to be the most juiced, not the least.  And of course we have to worry about trends.  

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5 minutes ago, IronTy said:

Do Kuchera totals ever verify?  It seems like since I've been following them for several years they're almost always universally high.

Kuchera tends to do pretty well imby.  I am at 1550' and get higher than 10:1 frequently.  I also can get lower than 10:1 of course, but Kuchera usually sniffs this out reasonably well also.

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Just now, Baltimorewx said:

Yeah, if the GFS and Canadian are more correct then most of us end up happy. Not trying to be doom and gloom. The euro wasnt encouraging but the rest of the 12z suite wasnt terrible

I'd take the Euro/NAM over those two at this point. But at this point my confidence in 50 miles give or take is extremely low, which is becoming a good thing as we move away from the bullseye. 

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