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February 10-12, 2021 Winter Event


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Euro's pretty darn dry for both waves.  Everyone north of EZF lost 0.2-0.4" of QPF from 0z.  

 

eta...it's not so much that it's "south", its just weaker with both waves and has a little more arctic air push, particularly for wave 2. Wave 1 is just weak sauce.  Quite a change even from 0z.  

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3 minutes ago, mappy said:

why would you be? we all know you'll get at least 6" 

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Naw I think this one belongs to DC.  We will get some snow up here but this is not the right kind of system for us to max out.  Boundary temps aren't marginal so our advantage there is muted.  The dominant surface flow during the precipitation is out of the north, that is not an upslope flow for us and its going to eat away at the moisture feed (which is really weak to begin with) along the northern fringes.  This is not the kind of storm where our local meso climo helps very much.  Doesn't mean we can't win...again if the whole boundary and WAA moisture feed were to shift north we would...but it wont be because of our local climo advantages this time.   This has a lot in common with the WAA waves that can and do often fringe us up here.  I am ok with that...and have set my bar accordingly.  Expecting 2-4" maybe 3-5" up here probably at this time with more south of us.  The second wave gaining just enough amplitude and lifting a bit north is probably our best chance to bust high on that.  It's still far enough out in time that an error very within the normal goalposts puts us in play there.  

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