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February 10-12, 2021 Winter Event


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37 minutes ago, ovechkin said:

3.8 at DCA, spread over 5 or 6 days total. LOL. Other urban hear islands in the northeast have done more than cash in.  Just give me decent temps at all levels and I’ll take my chances with QPF.  Systems this season have not been moisture starved. Not going to fret about a 0.1 change from run to run. I will fret if we are at 32-33 but have that extra 0.1. 

Good thing that's not true.

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29 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

CMC only has about a 4 hour lull out here. Pretty much snows from hour 36 to 74. And I get a whopping .8 total qpf out of that. One thing that seems to be coming into agreement from the models is less than an inch of total qpf from this through Friday. Pretty paltry for a 2 and a half day storm.

This isn't a clipper/pure NS shortwave. Even with QPF spread out, I'd be willing to bet in real time that it's pulses of moderate snow and not a pixiefest. Moisture source is the Pac down by Baja and the gulf. May not be great ratios depending on a lot of things but I really doubt it's a drawn out flurry event. 

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Just now, psuhoffman said:

My victory bar for this up here is 4".  Just freshen up the snowpack ahead of all the ice coming over the weekend.  Fail is less then 2".  

I'm trying to keep my glacier fetish at bay but it's not working... I stinking love complete coverage with a 1" lid of ice/crust on top. Takes forever to melt out and keeps grass covered till the bitter end. 

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Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

Isn't it like 5-5.5" up there on the UKMET? A pretty forgivable "mistake" to round that up to 6-10" considering that is the result in 90% of the region.

sorry... you are right and I am being nitpicky. But i literally make maps for a living so needing to read them correctly is a pet peeve.

but sorry all the same. 

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1 minute ago, mappy said:

i dont care. people need to read maps better. 

Kinda splitting hairs here.  I think you'd do 6 with over .5 precip.  I didn't use the snow map but I will work on my map reading in the future.

qpf_acc.us_ma_Ukie.png

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2 minutes ago, mappy said:

i dont care. people need to read maps better. 

It's about 5.5 qpf for our area....that is very likely about 6 if not 7" of snow with the ratios we will get up here.  I do think the characterization of a general 6-10 storm for the PA line south on the UK was accurate, bad map reading aside.  

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1 minute ago, LP08 said:

Kinda splitting hairs here.  I think you'd do 6 with over .5 precip.  I didn't use the snow map but I will work on my map reading in the future.

qpf_acc.us_ma_Ukie.png

you're fine. im being nitpicky. thanks for posting the output. 

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8 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said:

But that’s a 10-1 map.  I think you would be getting some high ratio powder up your way verbatim.

This may not be true. It's not an optimal snow growth setup. No crazy frontogen, uppler level dynamics or big lifting mechanism other than isentropic upglide. Will still be pretty snow if the rates are good. I'm not sold on sweet snowgrowth. Think of this as the warm air advection part of a coastal. Not usually a 12/15/20:1 type of snowfall. But it's really cold upstairs so I could be wrong. Someone else or a met can add to or correct my thoughts. 

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1 minute ago, mappy said:

sorry... you are right and I am being nitpicky. But i literally make maps for a living so needing to read them correctly is a pet peeve.

but sorry all the same. 

hah, no worries. It's a good reminder. That's why I often just post the maps and allow them to speak for themselves... often times when I try to call it a good run I get comments from the one part of the forum it wasn't a great run for, lol.

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32 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Pretty paltry for a 2 and a half day storm.

Just throwing my $0.02 out there but as Bob and others have suggested (and what we're already kind of seeing it with wave 1 based on guidance), I'd imagine the storm consolidates a bit. I keep referencing Jan 12-14 2019 as a similar setup, but putting everything that happened with the storm other than duration aside, I recall models suggested that precip would stick with us until something like 06z-10z Monday, when in reality precip shut off like 12hrs+ sooner. I think it makes sense too, we're not sitting here with a stacked low sitting motionless offshore pivoting light bands of snow into us like last week's system did. The one takeaway I got from the 12z suite was that there seems to be an overlap of both waves, but other than that the totals for the entire event seem pretty uniform for a good chunk of our subforum. Still a pretty great way to kick off this stretch of wintry weather for sure. 

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Last storm I was glad I made the last second decision to stay put at my house due to the marginality of the event.... for this one, definitely still contemplating going a bit south to my brothers. W suburbs of DC/BAL appear to be a in a better spot for QPF with more than sufficient enough temps.  UK backs this notion for sure. 

Shocker... another event where we are within 48 hours from start time and we are still seeing a 2-12” spread on the models :lol:

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2 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said:

The Ukie and the Euro have been pretty consistent with this setup. If you blend the guidance and remove some of the high end Euro Kuchera totals, it seems 6-12 inches is a good forecast.  Sign me up

The differences in 10:1 totals between the Euro, UKIE RGEM, CMC for the general DC area are very slim

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Just now, Bob Chill said:

This may not be true. It's not an optimal snow growth setup. No crazy frontogen, uppler level dynamics or big lifting mechanism other than isentropic upglide. Will still be pretty snow if the rates are good. I'm not sold on sweet snowgrowth. Think of this as the warm air advection part of a coast. Not usually a 12/15/20:1 type of snowfall. But it's really cold upstairs so I could be wrong. Someone else or a met can add to or correct my thoughts. 

You're right.  GFS sounding for wave 1 probably supports 10-12:1.  NAM sounding probably 8-10:1.  Both of these for central MD...

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Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

hah, no worries. It's a good reminder. That's why I often just post the maps and allow them to speak for themselves... often times when I try to call it a good run I get comments from the one part of the forum it wasn't a great run for, lol.

no, seriously. i was being nitpicky and kind of a biotch. its all good. 

Just now, psuhoffman said:

@mappy sorry I just saw the other posts...I was not trying to pile on, and your comment was 100% accurate going by the snow map...I was just trying to point out that in reality if the UK ACTUALLY was accurate it probably would be a 6-7" snow for us and others along the PA line.  

you're fine, everyone was right to call me out over it. gotta take the GIS hat off sometimes lol.

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