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February 10-12, 2021 Winter Event


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1 minute ago, baltosquid said:

Seems like a good forecast based on climo for something like this, even if there is some potential for better totals for DC and south.

That actually just seems to be from wave 1. A decent slug of precip/snow falls (at least according to the GFS/Euro) after 0z Friday, and that runs up until 7pm Thursday. 

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First time I've ever had this problem... I'm having the hardest time deciding which model to hug... it's making me sweaty with a few shakes and twitches... hmmm.... what to do what to do..... AHHHH! I figured it out!  I'll just do what @ravensrule would do! HUG THEM ALL! Then schedule uber rides home for them on Sunday. And make the models pay for it too! This is going to be sweet af. 

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1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

First time I've ever had this problem... I'm having the hardest time deciding which model to hug... it's making me sweaty with a few shakes and twitches... hmmm.... what to do what to do..... AHHHH! I figured it out!  I'll just do what @ravensrule would do! HUG THEM ALL! Then schedule uber rides home for them on Sunday. And make the models pay for it too! This is going to be sweet. 

Uhhhh, not sure anyone would necessarily want to do what @ravensrule would do!! LOL!!! :D

But more seriously and weather-related...gotta love that essentially every model is now looking pretty good for Wed night-Thurs and Thurs night-Fri.  Not too bad a place to be situated at this point.

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4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

First time I've ever had this problem... I'm having the hardest time deciding which model to hug... it's making me sweaty with a few shakes and twitches... hmmm.... what to do what to do..... AHHHH! I figured it out!  I'll just do what @ravensrule would do! HUG THEM ALL! Then schedule uber rides home for them on Sunday. And make the models pay for it too! This is going to be sweet. 

I would actually drill deep into each model to make sure they were spitting out the correct information. 

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13 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

That actually just seems to be from wave 1. A decent slug of precip/snow falls (at least according to the GFS/Euro) after 0z Friday, and that runs up until 7pm Thursday. 

True, probably smart of them to give it some time to figure out totals for that while the models bicker about whether that second bit is south or north.

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57 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Lol. Waaay too much sweating over 13 mile shifts and uneven qpf distribution. Save that stuff for when it really matters. Like 0z tomorrow. If your yard is still inside of the general idea, you should be elated really. 

yeah but Bob.. this winter has been really tough WRT what the models have shown around 48-72 hours out and what has actually happened.  A lot of people only lucked in to 6 inches last week because they got under a nice band at the very end.  Its been quite the bait and switch for us recently... so I dont blame people for panic over shifts

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1 minute ago, blueberryfaygo said:

yeah but Bob.. this winter has been really tough WRT what the models have shown around 48-72 hours out and what has actually happened.  A lot of people only lucked in to 6 inches last week because they got under a nice band at the very end.  Its been quite the bait and switch for us recently... so I dont blame people for panic over shifts

What you are saying supports my post even more. 

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1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

Lol. Waaay too much sweating over 13 mile shifts and uneven qpf distribution. Save that stuff for when it really matters. Like 0z tomorrow. If your yard is still inside of the general idea, you should be elated really. 

This forum is amazing.  And not in a good way sometimes.  I missed the GFS pbp thank God.  But yeah, what you said

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Just now, Bob Chill said:

2 impulse/wave setups running boundaries/fronts are tough to model. Even close in. We've seen more than a few morph multiple times

The euro loves long events, but they usually consolidate to some extent.  We may see this one congeal even more.  You just don't want the first wave to fizzle out and then the 2nd go too far south.  But in terms of overall potential, it's probably better to roll the dice and not book as much snow on the front end.

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2 minutes ago, Deck Pic said:

The Thursday night batch catches us up.  Run truncates...based on 12z, we may add another 1-2" on top of this

pFupxPb.png

Euro staying South GFS on the North side...that's not a bad thing I don't think...better than having everything going in one direction

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