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February 10-12, 2021 Winter Event


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LWX afternoon disco re threat

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Canadian high pressure will build toward the north Tuesday
night, and this will allow for dry conditions to continue.
However, it will turn out chillier again with a northerly flow
ahead of the building high.

The pattern turns active with an increased threat for wintry
weather Wednesday and Wednesday night. Shortwave and jetmax
energy in the in the southern stream of the jet will be passing
through the area in the nearly zonal flow aloft. However,
southern stream moisture should get drawn into the area during
this time. This setup combined with the fact that Canadian high
pressure will remain entrenched to our north supports the
increased threat for wintry weather. Have leaned a little toward
the models with the colder solutions given the fact that the
cold high pressure will be nearby. This suggests that a bulk of
the wintry precipitation may fall as snow along with the
potential for significant snowfall accumulations. However, mixed
precipitation is still possible and ice accumulations from
freezing rain are possible as well, and some guidance does still
show more of a mixed p-type event. Will continue to monitor the
latest trends, but the biggest story is that wintry
precipitation is likely and significant wintry precipitation is
possible and it would likely impact the Wednesday evening
commute and also into Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
An area of high pressure will linger and remained wedged along the
eastern slopes of the Appalachians Thursday and Thursday night. This
will allow for accumulating snow to continue across the northern
half of our CWA and accumulating mixed precipitation of sleet,
freezing rain, and rain across the southern half of our CWA.

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2 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

sfct.us_ma.png

Thanks and the extreme cold has been pushed back. Delayed but not denied is generally a disaster for snow but not as much for very cold surges although it’s a neutral sign at best. Looks like rollover cold also where it plunges  into Ohio Valley and west and then rolls over mountains and onto  us in a modified state as opposed to strong cold which plunges directly down upon  us from NY State and PA .

 

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44 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said:

How do people still take him seriously? Honestly I’m not bashing him but he is so irresponsibly early/bullish with his calls. Every. Single. Time. His record is appalling if you take him for his word 3-5 days out. 

He deserves credit because he is the best discusser  I know of as to what the combined elements of a big snowstorm need to be for our area. 

He is   considerably less skilled in prediction of what an upcoming system will turn out to be and produce. 

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6 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

Thanks and the extreme cold has been pushed back. Delayed but not denied is generally a disaster for snow but not as much for very cold surges although it’s a neutral sign at best. Looks like rollover cold also where it plunges  into Ohio Valley and west and then rolls over mountains and onto  us in a modified state as opposed to strong cold which plunges directly down upon  us from NY State and PA .

 

Pushed back? While not extreme the cold pattern is basically starting in a couple days and the overrunning storm signifies the start of a long colder than normal period. TWC doesn't have me getting out of the upper 20s/low 30s for at least a week with snow in the forecast almost every day.

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Goal posts are narrowing quite nicely here, not a lot of disagreement at this point.  GFS on the northern end and Euro on the southern with the ICON, CMC, and UKMET in the middle.  This is what I like to see in the lead up to an event.  Obviously we all know anything could happen but my confidence is gradually increasing that this event is real and we will get a moderate snowfall.  

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19 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

He deserves credit because he is the best discusser  I know of as to what the combined elements of a big snowstorm need to be for our area. 

He is   considerably less skilled in prediction of what an upcoming system will turn out to be and produce. 

Before I found this forum, I followed DT through several winters. In 2013-2015, he was actually pretty darn accurate much of the time.  His videos are actually quite educational for those of us who don’t know all the science of meteorology.  I know he has some biases and can get annoying, but his posts are generally informative for the general public. 

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I did want to add something serious. Every single time models have tossed around the idea of a long drawn out event with even steven rates/distribution etc over 48 hours  or more... It NEVER ends up working out like that. One of these 2 waves will be dominant and the other may be a letdown. Just going off memory. Everyone knows what I'm rooting for and it still includes a foot of ice. 

ETA: I suppose one difference here is SLP is weak sauce. Not the same as a 1-2 punch where there's a "wake" left behind or the exiting system does weird things over the Atl and screws up the approach of the second. This whole thing is pretty unusual. I can't really think of any event similar in the last 15 years. May be "ok" to expect anomalous results. Good times. 

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3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I did want to add something serious. Every single time models have tossed around the idea of a long drawn out event with even steven rates/distribution etc over 48 hours  or more... It NEVER ends up working out like that. One of these 2 waves will be dominant and the other may be a letdown. Just going off memory. Everyone knows what I'm rooting for and it still includes a foot of ice. 

Seems like guidance is moving to this. Wave 1 has trended drier/weaker across the board with wave 2 looking like it has a bit more potential. I was actually thinking about you and how this setup seems awfully familiar to the Chill storm 2 years ago. Obviously not the same look at h500 but a similar progression with the storm  starting off with cold smoke overrunning. 

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6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I did want to add something serious. Every single time models have tossed around the idea of a long drawn out event with even steven rates/distribution etc over 48 hours  or more... It NEVER ends up working out like that. One of these 2 waves will be dominant and the other may be a letdown. Just going off memory. Everyone knows what I'm rooting for and it still includes a foot of ice. 

Well, I think it might end up being more distinctly 2 waves with a gap in the middle.  Even if the gap is only ~12 hours.

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4 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

Seems like guidance is moving to this. Wave 1 has trended drier/weaker across the board with wave 2 looking like it has a bit more potential. I was actually thinking about you and how this setup seems awfully familiar to the Chill storm 2 years ago. Obviously not the same look at h500 but a similar progression with the storm  starting off with cold smoke overrunning. 

ICON follows this idea. Overall .2-.4" from wave 2 compared to maybe like .1-.2" for the general DC area from 12z, but less with the overrunning. Still favorable trends for sure. 0.6"+ QPF from DC southwards. 

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ICON really loses a lot of the precip from the previous run. Once you get north of DC, you go from 0.5, to 0.4, to 0.3 in Baltimore, and less and less as you keep going. Still a good run to have at this stage if you expect a north shift and aren't looking too deeply at rates quite yet. But dryness is still my biggest worry.

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