Monday Feb 15 - midday Feb 16, 2021 Significant Winter Ice Event interior

[Rjay]

4 minutes ago, USCG RS said:

I am having trouble finding the verification scores, however,

The ICON is German and the model we use is their 13 km resolution. It is much like our GFS,, good only for macroscale patterns and views. 

They have a 7 and 2 km, much like our NAM and other more short range, high resolution models. In Germany, the higher resolution ICON is actually preferred to the Euro at times. 

No thanks lol

[LibertyBell]

It's screwed up that we have weather models for every major nation.  Science should know no boundaries and we shouldn't have national weather models.  All scientists across the world should be working together to create a universal model not this piecemeal kind of stuff.

[Snowcane21]

2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

It's screwed up that we have weather models for every major nation.  Science should know no boundaries and we shouldn't have national weather models.  All scientists across the world should be working together to create a universal model not this piecemeal kind of stuff.

Competition is what gets you the best models.  Who cares what country they come from. 

[Will - Rutgers]

47 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

It's screwed up that we have weather models for every major nation.  Science should know no boundaries and we shouldn't have national weather models.  All scientists across the world should be working together to create a universal model not this piecemeal kind of stuff.

the sentiment is right, the reality is difficult.

[HeadInTheClouds]

What I have noticed from the icon these past few months is that it's low placement is ok but it's thermals are awful. This is one model I wouldn't be looking at when thermals will be so important with the next few storms. 

[jm1220]

4 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

What I have noticed from the icon these past few months is that it's low placement is ok but it's thermals are awful. This is one model I wouldn't be looking at when thermals will be so important with the next few storms. 

Seems like this will be a surface cold based/icy setup so the models that can’t resolve that properly (GFS) will suffer. 

[NEG NAO]

53 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Seems like this will be a surface cold based/icy setup so the models that can’t resolve that properly (GFS) will suffer. 

I have my doubts about all of the models .......this is going to be a week of nowcasting IMO

[HVSnowLover]

7 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

I have my doubts about all of the models .......this is going to be a week of nowcasting IMO

Maybe not quite nowcasting but agree this much energy is impossible for the models to handle accurately more than 24 hours out. The CMC/GFS look very different within the next 96 hours alone in how they handle different energies.       

[HVSnowLover]

2 hours ago, KeithB said:

God forbid...because I have high hopes for this coming week! 

I initially did. Now I am not sure, this is going to be either a real exciting weather week or a brutal weather week or maybe somewhere in between.  

[snywx]

14 hours ago, sferic said:

@snywx @crossbowftw3 @Ericjcrash What are your opinions since we span from Delaware Counties  to Orange County

Lots of sleet & ZR up this way. I don’t see much snow. Maybe 3-5” of snow before any taint up your way. Down by me 1-2” the most before the taint. 

[SnoSki14]

3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This really isn’t looking like an ideal CAD event anymore. Notice how the Arctic high is over Minnesota instead of near Toronto  like a few days ago. So models like the Euro and NAM that resolve low level cold air are now warmer than a few days ago. Also notice the stronger SE Ridge poking up east of New England now.

New run

Old run

 

I wonder if flooding will be more of an issue now. The gfs essentially has two cutters with the 2nd bringing rains to Canada.

[wdrag]

Good Saturday morning everyone - Feb 13.

 

Lots of wintry elements coming  late today-Friday the 19th. Then after Friday the 19th, it warms up a bit as the pattern softens but maybe produces a little more snow for the I84 corridor and Adirondacks the 21st-24th. Any warming and associated non freezing rain this coming week will only soak into the snowpack with little diminishment of what is out there now.

 

Late today - midday Valentines Day: I84 corridor: periods of light showery snow, sleet and maybe even freezing rain across ne PA-nw NJ may not quite make it up to northern CT?-some modeling does it have it there so am uncertain on northern extent. Light amounts. Slippery on untreated surfaces when it occurs. It melts Sunday afternoon. May be Sunday afternoon is a good time to clear off some snow from the gutters SAFELY only!

 

The GGEM/RGEM for Monday: I dont have an answer.  Some modeling yes, others NO.  Something to watch. Right now am advising friends its okay to travel midday Monday along nI84 due to milder temps near freezing but this GGEM/RGEM is a concern. 

 

Late Monday the 15th-Tue the 16th: a significant advisable-warnable extensive ice event coming to the I84 corridor where it may transition to snow. This is mostly ice and I foresee-expect extensive delays Tuesday morning, and some cancels. Unsure whether this is mostly sleet or combined sleet-freezing rain. Might even have a bit of snow with this, just north of I84 where I could see several inches in this mix. Just too much uncertainty for me to know.

 

For NYC-I95 so problematic am not going to attempt to detail... it varies by the modeling and cycle but looks like a transition to rain LI and NJ coast for sure on the 16th.  BUT... stay tuned if wind stays mostly NNE.  

 

What I think I'm seeing is the GGEM-G=RGEM  drift colder early this coming week.  

 

All yours... will be back around 5P to this thread.  

 

Added one NWS 09z/13 NWS ensemble graphic: the risk of icing Monday, especially at night.  This tells me a problem is coming.

 

 

[jbenedet]

Yea this increasingly has the look of a significant ice storm. 

All high level factors are favorable, timing, snow cover, cold surfaces, climo.

The final wave (of 3?) will be weak, and insufficient to modify the mid to low level temps, simply ejecting northeast along the pre-existing boundary. At the same time a surface high will remain in southern Ontario upon its approach. The weakness of the two key players favors more freezing rain and less sleet...A higher impact event. 

[MJO812]

20 minutes ago, bluewave said:

More for interior areas than the immediate coast. Notice how the strongest high pressure has shifted west to Minnesota from near Toronto a few days ago. So the models don’t have the strong CAD signature down to Southern NJ  like a few days ago.

New run

old run

 

Yes if the models are correct with this 

Everyone should still keep an eye out for sleet with these storms. Any shift south and east will change everything.

[jbenedet]

32 minutes ago, bluewave said:

More for interior areas than the immediate coast. Notice how the strongest high pressure has shifted west to Minnesota from near Toronto a few days ago. So the models don’t have the strong CAD signature down to Southern NJ  like a few days ago.

New run

old run

 

I think everything is trending weaker except the boundary itself. Thinking we’ll see slightly lower heights into the Northeast as a result as well. The orientation of the surface high into southern Ontario is still quite favorable for surface CAD down to the coast. All comes down to where the surface boundary sets up...
 

The old runs looks more like a significant snowstorm with sleet at the margins, this looks more like an ice storm as major impact. 

[HeadInTheClouds]

Hoping for more sleet than ZR up here in MHV but it's looking right now like a significant icing event. Not good. 

[MJO812]

Nam has rain for the coast and just inland with rain up to coastal SNE

[NEG NAO]

4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Nam has rain for the coast and just inland with rain up to coastal SNE

and the GFS just a couple days ago had 2M temps in the teens for about the same time period in NYC metro......

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

and the GFS just a couple days ago had 2M temps in the teens for about the same time period in NYC metro......

Exactly

The models failed with the placement of the PV

[NEG NAO]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Exactly

The models failed with the placement of the PV

So what makes you believe them at 69 hours away on the NAM when less then 69 hours ago the GFS was showing 2M temps in the teens??? - don't take these outputs seriously till you get within about 36 hours or less IMO

[MJO812]

5 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

So what makes you believe them at 69 hours away on the NAM when less then 69 hours ago the GFS was showing 2M temps in the teens??? - don't take these outputs seriously till you get within about 36 hours or less IMO

Of course but the PV is diving down into the middle of the country now instead of setting up shop over the lakes. All the models aren't going to be wrong with this.

[crossbowftw3]

26 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

Hoping for more sleet than ZR up here in MHV but it's looking right now like a significant icing event. Not good. 

The overall fast pace of the storm will curb ice potential but it will be an incredibly rough time of it Tuesday. Right now I’d think .25-.5 could be common with some folks seeing up to .75. Typical rounding down rules apply with clown maps 

[NEG NAO]

4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Of course but the PV is diving down into the middle of the country now instead of setting up shop over the lakes. All the models aren't going to be wrong with this.

I still stand by my previous statement - "don't take these outputs seriously till you get within about 36 hours or less IMO": models in the last 2 weeks messed up losing both of the those events at the same time period it is losing this one............maybe they will be right this time - take your chances.........that 69 hour NAM doesn't look reasonable to me especially with all the ice and snow on the ground especially north of I-78

[the moors in england]

I jinxed this storm.

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, NEG NAO said:

I still stand by my previous statement - "don't take these outputs seriously till you get within about 36 hours or less IMO": models in the last 2 weeks messed up losing both of the those events at the same time period it is losing this one............maybe they will be right this time - take your chances.........that 69 hour NAM doesn't look reasonable to me especially with all the ice and snow on the ground especially north of I-78

Gfs is a tick east but all rain

[NEG NAO]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Gfs is a tick east but all rain

with your 2M temps in the teens in place briefly Wednesday Morning in NYC metro

[weatherpruf]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Gfs is a tick east but all rain

we had a nice, albeit brief run Ant, if it isn't gonna snow the rain would be preferable. Frankly, I'm ready for some sun after all these days of gray. I kinda doubt we don't see at least another snow event, but its very possible. Mother nature once again did not do as expected. Thought we were gonna get some real cold, but alas, not to be. Not a big fan of overly frigid temps anyway. And hey, thanks for posting these runs year after year. You are gonna get some strange looks from your future wife. 

[MJO812]

Jeez

[crossbowftw3]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Jeez

Pray that we don’t get Christmas Eve all over again because that would be so much worse over a bigger area.

[SnoSki14]

6 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Jeez

Thats a flood threat.