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Monday Feb 15 - midday Feb 16, 2021 Significant Winter Ice Event interior


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I've no confident change to the topic as updated at 830AM and reassess tomorrow morning.  The 14th event is light,  15th?, the 16th might not be as heavy as some of the models which may leave it colder and more snow?  

18th-19th...  think heaviest qpf since our Feb 1 event. It looks pretty cold at the surface with generally primary low pressures, so far, along our coasts for this entire period per 12z/11 NAEFS.  Probably not much snow along I80-Li, especially 18th-19th (replaced by sleet, freezing rain and on LI and coastal NJ.. rain). 

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1 minute ago, Brian5671 said:

I would thing an ice storm would come more from an overrunning event vs a storm coming up the coast....

Agreed this entire setup seems funky to me. 

Great banana high pressure and AO blocks the storm from running over us, yet the h5 look we are definitely east of the trough. 

 

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2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

I would thing an ice storm would come more from an overrunning event vs a storm coming up the coast....

May come in two pieces 18 and 19... instead of one stronger system. If that happens, going to be colder surface, at least inland. Precip rates may be too heavy for heavier FRAM glaze but I have to think at pretty good chance of a quarter inch of glaze coming this 5 day period, interior east-northeast slope high terrain. Worthy of monitoring. I'm not convinced by current modeling that it cant snow the first 6-12 hours on the 18th along I84. If it further warms aloft, then that snow won't happen. 

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23 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Agreed this entire setup seems funky to me. 

Great banana high pressure and AO blocks the storm from running over us, yet the h5 look we are definitely east of the trough. 

 

Its a miller B so way different than a miller A. We have one LP going up into the Lakes region which causes upper levels to warm..

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