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Quick Hitter Obs/Nowcast, Feb 7-8th


The 4 Seasons
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7 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Save the QPF maps and compare tomorrow.

You are experiencing what I often see on the NW flank.  Get 9” on 0.30” water.  Their snow maps are right for the wrong reason, but that’s hard to process for sure.

IMBY syndrome. The NAM and HREF are not going be correct at all. Under the band it will likely overperform forecast amounts, but to the north those models are going to end up dumpster fires. Maybe you could argue the 12z NAM got a clue on the northern edge, but HREF was still 6-8" for SE NH at 00z. 

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41 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yes I agree. His ratios are likely pretty close to accurate. I bet 20 to 1 blower at minimum in this band. 

Ratios are certainly close to that. I’m down in Bethel and the snow growth and flakes are beautiful. About as perfect of dendrites as you can get. 

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7 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

IMBY syndrome. The NAM and HREF are not going be correct at all. Under the band it will likely overperform forecast amounts, but to the north those models are going to end up dumpster fires. Maybe you could argue the 12z NAM got a clue on the northern edge, but HREF was still 6-8" for SE NH at 00z. 

I’ll kindly disagree . They were the only output showing the heavy Banding farther west. Everything else had SE Mass as ground zero. You even had Mets this morning saying “ take em down” “ we downgrade “ etc. Globals were putrid 

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46 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Not if the ratios are 20:1 or higher like many are saying.  Take the 10:1 snow maps and double them and it looks pretty good.

I got giggity when I saw the snow growth videos coming out of NJ this morning. Back under the band here again. Rip city

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53 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

IMBY syndrome. The NAM and HREF are not going be correct at all. Under the band it will likely overperform forecast amounts, but to the north those models are going to end up dumpster fires. Maybe you could argue the 12z NAM got a clue on the northern edge, but HREF was still 6-8" for SE NH at 00z. 

True, the NAM to a certain extent lead the way but the HREF was too juiced, which it has a bias of doing, for SE New Hampshire. However, I do believe SE New Hampshire end up with 3-6" of snow from this when all is said and done.

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