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Quick Hitter Obs/Nowcast, Feb 7-8th


The 4 Seasons
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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah...the key is buying it though. So did we believe the 3km NAM? Most of us prob thought it was too zonked. It prob will still verify as too zonked since it was giving ORH like 0.75 of qpf. 

I knew the ratios would be good in the band but the question was how high would they be just outside the band and where would the band line up? 

It’s really hard to forecast based on high ratios. I’ve been burned before on that. 

But either way, I figured this would be a really fun nowcast event. Hasn’t disappointed. We’re getting smoked here and we’re not even in the heart of the band. 

image.gif.d0971d9f9a06fa21eb03fa6136776aea.gif

Yeah I don’t mean placement, just that in the band itself we figured it would be good ratios. I agree placement was difficult and we all mentioned that. 

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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah...the key is buying it though. So did we believe the 3km NAM? Most of us prob thought it was too zonked. It prob will still verify as too zonked since it was giving ORH like 0.75 of qpf. 

I knew the ratios would be good in the band but the question was how high would they be just outside the band and where would the band line up? 

It’s really hard to forecast based on high ratios. I’ve been burned before on that. 

But either way, I figured this would be a really fun nowcast event. Hasn’t disappointed. We’re getting smoked here and we’re not even in the heart of the band. 

It's why my preference in situations like this is get the background snow amounts most correct and adjust when you see the whites of its eyes. When you try and swing for the fence and nail the location you usually are off by 20-30 miles and look silly. Or if you go with snowband amounts everywhere you look silly too.

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Just now, OceanStWx said:

It's because models had a warm near surface layer. Like 34-35. That will knock back Kuchera ratios since it takes the highest temp below 500 mb.

When you mentioned the cross hair siggy I looked at a few select soundings for SNE. Under the band definitely had the 15-20:1 potential.

Looking back at the kuchera map i just posted 2mT were around 32-33F around i84 to the merritt which is where we have these high ratios. Not quite mid-30s but still warm enough to kill ratios on kuchera. Its also strange how both pivotal and wxbell use kuchera but they are usually widely different. Weeniebell is almost always higher.

nam-218-all-massachusetts-t2m_f-2710000.thumb.png.e6b782fa9e73aed49110dc6a6cedab23.png

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14 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

It's like 20 miles from the coast?

Either way I think 3-4 maybe a local 5 spot does it on the Seacoast. 

Closer to 25 miles. Small state. 68 miles wide at its widest point.

We know how much a few miles means in these things. Not different now. 

I think the coast has a good shot of seeing a glancing blow from the parting deform band as this thing really winds up tonight. Deerfield etc has no shot at that—too far northwest. If that doesn’t happen then you will be correct.

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Just now, The 4 Seasons said:

Looking back at the kuchera map i just posted 2mT were around 32-33F around i84 to the merritt which is where we have these high ratios. Not quite mid-30s but still warm enough to kill ratios on kuchera. Its also strange how both pivotal and wxbell use kuchera but they are usually widely different. Weeniebell is almost always higher.

I'm just riffing but a 32 would probably give you around 10:1, so actually pulling 15 or 20 is going to be quite a bit of snow difference.

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1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

This is going to be close to that 12/05/12 analog Will and jCT brought up . Amazing similarities 

i brought up 12/29/12 as the #1 analog yesterday and will mentioned it as well but i dont know about 12/05/12 maybe youre thinking the wrong date? dont think there was a storm on dec 5th.

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5 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

I'm going to come in with less than my minimum range forecast of 1- 2"    :lol:

Never really got going here outside of an hour or two of steady -SN 

26/20   Flurries.

Hubbardston is on it's way to almost doubling Greenfield totals for the current season.  :o  

I think you are about 30mi East of me?

As per Google Maps, my house is exactly 30 miles (in a straight line) from the People's Pint...lol

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1 minute ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Looking back at the kuchera map i just posted 2mT were around 32-33F around i84 to the merritt which is where we have these high ratios. Not quite mid-30s but still warm enough to kill ratios on kuchera. Its also strange how both pivotal and wxbell use kuchera but they are usually widely different. Weeniebell is almost always higher.

nam-218-all-massachusetts-t2m_f-2710000.thumb.png.e6b782fa9e73aed49110dc6a6cedab23.png

It’s always amazing how warm they are and overestimate interior temps. I mean it’s been 27-28 here since it started at 10:30

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1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It’s always amazing how warm they are and overestimate interior temps. I mean it’s been 27-28 here since it started at 10:30

They are usually even worse up in ORH county. For years when I forecasted full time, I always had to slice anywhere from 4-8F off model 2m temps (and sometimes more in the correct setup) during winter wx events. 

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5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

They are usually even worse up in ORH county. For years when I forecasted full time, I always had to slice anywhere from 4-8F off model 2m temps (and sometimes more in the correct setup) during winter wx events. 

Yeah .And the thing is unless you’re a met or weather geek or someone that lives in the area and understands the Climo , you likely aren’t gonna know to do that. I know it’s even more magnified in ORH county , but I can look at stuff around here and know what needs to be corrected . 

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